Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will CPI Be Sticky? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) The CPI inflation print for April could affect markets today--will it come in softly, or reflect a stronger print from April 2021. If inflation wanes, will the Fed be less aggressive? If so, that's an encouraging sign for growth stocks in particular. The market Tuesday did try to rally, but failed; markest are still deeply over-sold on every metric we track, so a lot of fuel remains for a rally. Any good news on inflation would tend to...

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Beware of Recency Bias!

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) Utopia vs Dystopia is like theory vs reality: Why the Government's solution for fighting inflation never works; Should you buy the dip? Why buy the market bottom is a bear trap for investors; the best investment I ever made; what advisors are telling people that's good and bad; recency bias and investor psychology; contrarian investing strategies; Benchmarking progress over a two-year span; Why you should get out of the market now....

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Sentiment is So Bearish, It’s Bullish | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-10

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(5/10/22) Markets have been deeply over-sold, with sentiment so bearish, it's bullish. Be careful not to throw in the towel, just yet. Markets did sell-off all day Monday, resulting in one of the top-five leading sell-off days in history for retail investors. At three standard deviations below the mean, the S&P is trading 11% below the 200-DMA. But just last year, we were talking about the S&P trading 12% above the mean, setting up for a...

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The Relentless Fed

2022-05-10

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(5/10/22) Monday's market Capitulation actually smelled like margin calls coming home to roost; as financial conditions continue to tighten, the Fed is relentless in its squeeze. The inflation now was caused by "free" money (which isn't); the best course for the Fed now is to do nothing, and allow inflation to run its course in curing itself. Low volatility begets high volatility, and investor sentiment now is so bearish...it's bullish....

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Are We Near the Bottom? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-09

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(5/9/22) Concerns over Fed speakers and Inflation numbers releases this week, as markets begin trading deep in the red; will we see inflation's peak--and with that, a softer stance by the Fed? Markets are starting the week down three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Professional, Retail, and Positioning sentiment are all quite pessimistic across the board; technical indicators are over-sold on virtually every level. At this point, it's...

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What Will Inflation Tell Us This Week?

2022-05-09

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(5/9/22) The psychological pressure on investors created by inflation is very real, and makes folks prone to making mistakes. Inflation's interesting comparisons, April to April; Inflation numbers are not reflective of what we're actually living; Consumers' resort to credit card debt to pay bill. The metrics of inflation vs reality; the fallacy of a Fed "soft landing;" signs we are at or near inflation's peak; Rich Strike & Market...

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Financial Fitness Friday (5/6/22)

2022-05-06

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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The Truth About Life Insurance

2022-05-05

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0:47 - Worried About Government Over-reach? Want to Create a Super-Roth? Want a Tax-free Retirement Income? Want to Build a Judgement-Proof Estate? Want to Eliminate the Risk of Estate Taxes? 2:29 - Why do you have--or why consider--Life Insurance? 5:00 - Term Coverage--the "Alka Seltzer" of Insurance 5:35 - Term Life Pro's 7:54 - Term Life Con's 9:00 - Permanent Insurance Tax-Free Accumulation vs Roth IRA 9:55 - Term Life Insurance...

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No surprises from Fed – where do we go from here? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-05

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(5/5/22) Jerome Powell's announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected--but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we've seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's. If markets go there, that's the...

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The Fed’s Silver Lining

2022-05-05

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(5/5/22) The Fed is raising rates by 50-basis-points, but tapering its balance sheet at a slower pace than expected, causing great jubilation on Wall Street, and a 3% rally after the announcement. The narrative the Fed feeds does not always comport with reality; how Jerome Powell "walks the line." Is the Fed looking at the economy in the right way? Economic data are telling a different story; is the market actually bottoming--or could it...

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How Will Today’s Fed Meeting Impact Your Money? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-04

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(5/4/22) Market futures are elevated following two days of volatility and a slow grinding higher; lots of trepidation on Wall St. as the Fed's FOMC meeting convenes today. What the Fed says--or does not say--will affect markets, and in turn, your money. Will the Fed announce a 50-basis-point hike in rates, and a tapering of its balance sheet starting in June--or--will they be more aggressive, hiking rates 75-basis-points, with more, similar rate...

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What Will Today’s FOMC Meeting Reveal?

2022-05-04

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(5/4/22) Today's FOMC meeting will reveal what Jerome Powell & Co really think about the economy, and how the Federal Reserve intends to address inflation: Corporate earnings are decent, but forward guidance is sucky. What we mean when we say we're "taking profits;" how to adjust your portfolio strategy for risk, and why cash is king. Don't confuse narratives for returns: Indexes paint a different view than what's really happening in...

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What Will the Fed Say Tomorrow? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The next Fed meeting is tomorrow, at which the FOMC is expected to hike rates 50-basis points, and reduce its balance sheet by $90-Billion starting in June. But what if they don't? What if the Fed says it's raising rates by 75-basis points, and issues a much more hawkish view on inflation? That's the risk markets are facing as they try to position ahead of the meeting. With markets so negatively biased, any news that matches expectations...

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Will Markets Rally Following the Fed Meeting?

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The FOMC meets tomorrow, and while many are anxiously awaiting the Fed's pronouncements on Thursday; in reality, markets may have already "baked-in" an expected 50-basis point rate hike and $90-B balance sheet taper to begin in June. Dragons are real; How Investors are positioning for the rest of the summer; YouTube influencers and the end of bad advice; S&P earnings estimates continue to climb, even as corporate forecasts...

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Why Now Would Be a Really Good Time to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-02

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(5/2/22) Markets are set to prove the April-to-May adage: Thunderstorms on Wall Street in April resulted in extremely negative investor sentiment. Markets are very over-sold, and positioning is very light--not surprising given market performance last month. Can markets go lower? Certainly. And we could see a bit of a short-term rally at this point, too, albeit with a lower high as the market continues to establish a down trend. We could also see a...

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Is a Bigger Bear Market Coming?

2022-05-02

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(5/2/22) Will April's showers bring a flowering to the markets in May? Comparing 2021 to now--is a bigger bear market coming? (Anything the Fed says next can tilt markets one way or the other.) The potential for a short-term rally is likely; use it to rebalance risk in portfolios. Wall Street's golden plateau is "buy & sell;" the velocity of news can destroy market caps overnight; Warren Buffett: "Markets are a Casino."...

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Living with Inflation and Negative GDP

2022-04-30

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(4/29/22) Turns out Inflation wasn't as "transitory" as some had hoped; the bigger question now is whether or not Inflation is structural. Ramifications of China's slowing economy. Robinhood has been "Friar Tucked." How to mitigate risk w life insurance; Housing Demographics & Affordability Index; buying vs renting; the "American Dream" vs homeownership reality. Coco the Robot; Retirement vs work: Distribution vs...

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Don’t Be Fooled by Facebook’s Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-04-28

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(4/28/22) Facebook/Meta's report last night boasted increased users but diminished revenues, boosting its opening price to just about its 50-DMA. Despite the rally in the stock, there is still some concern: Over the past 9-months, Facebook has been down nearly 50% from its 52-week high. We're concerned whether this recent rally can stick. Why does this matter? Because Facebook is among those giant stocks in the NASDAQ which comprise 33% of the...

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Why Facebook/Meta’s Earnings Matter

2022-04-28

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(4/28/22) It's been a tough week for the markets; Facebook's earnings report showed lower revenues but heightened user counts; why a Facebook/Meta rally matters--and the opportunity it will afford investors. What the Atlanta Fed has in store in GDP report; how Russia will impact companies' forward guidance, effects on China. Inflation beginning to impact companies through reduced consumer spending: We're spending more to get the same or less. Why...

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Have Markets Bottomed, or More Losses to Go? | 3:00 on markets & Money

2022-04-27

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(4/27/22) Markets remain under pressure as earnings come in not as strong as expected. Markets retested March's low, but this morning futures are pointing higher. Markets remain over sold, so expect at least a small, short-term rally. This would be a good time to rebalance and adjust for risk. Google reported worse-than-expected earnings, breaking down below support. Google is very over-sold but allow the stock to recover as investors digest just...

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