Beware of Recency Bias!

2022-05-05

(5/5/22) Jerome Powell’s announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected–but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA’s. If markets go there, that’s the signal to raise a little cash, take some profits, and clean up your act. We’re not quite out of the woods; with a short-term buy signal triggered, money flows positive, and the MACD starting to turn upward, this is the bullish octane markets need.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent

2022-04-26

(4/26/22) Elon Musk is bidding to buy Twitter, and the board decides it’s not such a bad deal after all; did Elon over-pay? The Problem with taking Twitter private; the culture of Twitter, and how Elon can make money on it. Public reaction to the sale from Trump, Bezos; Chinese access to the towne square; who decides what’s disinformation? Why Twitter never forgets; platforms that share opinions and confirmation bias. Why it’s always important to read that with which you do not agree. Ford’s electric F-150, GM’s electric Corvette. Possible changes at Twitter; Why there’s no place to hide from the bear; why bond bull market is impending. Nicolas Cage/National Treasure: What did the FBI take from Finders Keepers? The Stupidity of Government; why we’re bullish on Bonds.
Hosted by RIA

2022-02-09

(2/9/22) The recent rally back to the 50-DMA has been good, but since then markets have been trending slightly lower. Tomorrow’s inflation data is expected to be the high-water mark for this year. If inflation comes in weaker than expected, stocks might get a boost on expectations the Fed might not be as aggressive with monetary policy. But the reality is that markets have made very little–if any–progress since October 2020. There are plenty of reasons to expect some downside risk to markets. But a break above the 50-DMA, and we’ve got a Bull Market on our hands.
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Articles mentioned in this report:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/disinflation-is-a-bigger-threat-than-inflation/
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/news…
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Watch the

2022-02-07

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#Fed #Bitcoin #Gold #Stocks #Trading #rates #Money #Markets

2022-01-31

Here is an encore presentation of the January 29, 2022 Special Edition episode of Candid Coffee, our Exclusive Analysis of the Fed’s Actions this week, direct from the kitchen tables of Richard Rosso, CFP, RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, and Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP

Richard and Danny are joined by CIO Lance Roberts to discuss:
0:50 – Markets are down for 2022 already: Why it feels so bad
2:50 – Understanding Market Volatility
4:37 – What Changed in the Fed’s December meeting minutes
5:15 – Perspectives on Market Performance
6:38 – What "Faster & Sooner" really means
7:53 – Why We Have Inflation Now
12:16 – The Word for 2022 is "Volatility"
13:15 – Expectations Moving Forward: Possibilities vs Probabilities
17:42 – Why the Fed is Walking Into a Huge Trap
25:07 –

2022-01-20

(1/20/22) As vax mandates around the world begin to crumble, the shift to "normalcy" should restore economic productivity. Getting people back to work and restoring consumer confidence is what makes an economy grow. So, what about the vax-makers? Johnson & Johnson peaked in December, and has been on a downward trend ever since. Moderna has also been in a big correction since July; Pfizer has also peaked and is beginning to decline. Markets are already picking up on the "return to normalcy," and government spending in these companies comes to an end. There are a lot of "value companies" that are not really values: Procter & Gamble, Coke, McDonald’s, Disney–these are all companies trading at high price-to-earnings, price-to-sales ratios, outside of the norm of what they should generate in

2022-01-14

Are academian’s about to learn the lesson of "no free lunch? What 7% CPI really means in terms of real wages vs inflation; How do you decrease inflation? The political mistake of giving people money instead of supporting the creation of productivity; Jeremy Siegel and The Minksy Moment re-defined; Real assets vs stocks; Bonds vs Stocks–and why we own bonds.
1:13 – SEG-1: What 7% CPI Really Means
12:26 – How Do You Decrease Inflation?
28:13 – Jeremy Siegel: Too much Money Chasing Too Few Goods?
42:32 – Jeremy Siegel: Real Assets vs Stocks

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
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Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Use the Rally to Rebalance–but to

2022-01-10

(1/6/22) Markets are pointing lower with the S&P looking to break the 50-DMA; the big question today is whether the selling is almost over. There remains a money flow sell signal, and markets are not entirely over-sold just yet. There is more downside risk to the market, and a retest of the lower range of standard deviations is certainly within the context of a pullback. Nothing major has occurred, other than going through a correctional process. Can we hold December’s lows? If not, markets could slip to previously set lows in October. Markets are under pressure as they work off the overbought conditions coming out of the Santa Claus Rally. Small Caps continue to remain under pressure, and haven’t had as much of a correction as the S&P. Mid-Caps are looking much the same as small