Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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#MacroView: MMT – When Theories Collide With Reality

2021-08-08

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2021-08-08

Previously, we discussed Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its one limitation of inflation. However, as is always the case when “theories” collide with “reality,” the tenants of the theory are quickly discarded.

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Technically Speaking: Hedge Funds Ramp Up Exposure

2021-08-03

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2021-08-03

The “Fear Of Missing Out” has infected retail and hedge funds alike as they ramp up exposure to chase performance. We have previously discussed the near “mania” of retail investors taking on exceptional risk in various manners. From increasing leverage, engaging in speculative options trading, and taking out personal loans to invest, it’s all evidence of overconfident investors.

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The Lifeline of Markets – Liquidity Defined

2021-06-30

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2021-06-30

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dec 1986 - 1987
We recently read an analogy in which the author compares the current state of asset prices to an airplane flying at 50,000 feet. Unfortunately, we cannot find the article and provide a link. The gist is market valuations are flying at an abnormally high altitude. While our market plane cannot sustain such heights in the long run, there is little reason to suspect it will fall from the sky either.

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#MacroView: Capitalism Does Not Equal Corporatism – Pt. 1

2021-06-28

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2021-06-28

U.S. Recessions/Banking Crises, 1812 - 2007
Furthermore, let’s understand what these debates are really about. The debates over capitalism aren’t about Mike Jones, who operates the local auto mechanic repair shop. Nor Annie Smith, the operator of a personal training studio. Mike and Annie are taking advantage of a capitalist economy. Capitalism provides the ability to earn more wealth than paid employment.

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Interview: Candid Coffee – Mid-Year Market Review

2021-05-27

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2021-05-27

Last weekend, I joined Richard Rosso, CFP and Danny Ratliff, CFP to discuss the outlook for the markets for the rest of this year and take questions from our attendees.

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Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds?

2021-05-26

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2021-05-26

Taper Is Coming: Got Bonds? The solid economic recovery and easing of COVID restrictions lead us to believe a tapering of QE may not be far off. Further supporting our opinion, inflation has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and employment is improving rapidly.

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Technically Speaking: Yardeni – The Market Will Soon Reach 4500

2021-05-18

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2021-05-18

S&P 500 Earnings Revisions, 1990 - 2020
“The strong economic recovery will not get interrupted by inflation or a credit crunch, and the market will soon reach 4,500.” – Ed Yardeni via Advisor Perspectives. After discussing BofA’s view of why the market could drop to 3800,  I thought it fair to discuss a more optimistic view.

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Technically Speaking: If Everyone Sees It, Is It Still A Bubble?

2021-05-11

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2021-05-11

Concern of Stock Market Bubble, 2016 - 2021
“If everyone sees it, is it still a bubble?” That was a great question I got over the weekend. As a “contrarian” investor, it is usually when “everyone” is talking about an event; it doesn’t happen. As Mark Hulbert noted recently, “everyone” is worrying about a “bubble” in the stock market.

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#MacroView: Are Stocks Cheap, Or Just Another Rationalization?

2021-05-07

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2021-05-07

Are stocks “cheap,” or is this just another bullish “rationalization.” Such was the suggestion by the consistently bullish Brian Wesbury of First Trust in a research note entitled “Yes, Stocks Are Cheap.” To wit: “The Fed remains highly accommodative, there are trillions of dollars of cash on the sidelines, vaccines have reached over 50% of Americans, and the economy is expanding rapidly. Some valuations have been stretched, but the market as a...

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All Inflation Is Transitory. The Fed Will Be Late Again.

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

In this issue of “All Inflation Is Transitory, The Fed WIll Be Late Again.“ Market Review And Update All Inflation Is Temporary The Fed Should Be Hiking Now Portfolio Positioning #MacroView: No. Bonds Aren’t Overvalued. Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager Follow Us On: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In, Sound Cloud, Seeking Alpha Catch Up On What You Missed Last Week   Market Review & Update Last week, we...

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Seth Levine: Bitcoin Doesn’t Fix Defi, Defi Fixes Bitcoin

2021-05-02

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2021-05-02

Does Bitcoin Fix Defi (Definancialization)? “Bitcoin fixes this.” I cringe every time I see this popular meme. I find it worse than nails on a chalkboard. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (crypto) supporters seem to wheel this tired trope out for every problem they see, particularly at economic ones. To their credit, they genuinely want to fix the financial system’s problems.

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The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds (Which Is Right?)

2021-04-28

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2021-04-28

Peak S&P Earnings vs Actual Earnings, 1980-2020
The Battle Royale: Stocks vs. Bonds. The S&P 500 is at valuations higher than those in 1929 and rival those of 1999. Despite a recession, the index is 25% above where it was trading before the pandemic. The equity stampede is undoubtedly bullish about corporate earnings prospects and, by default, economic growth.  

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Lacy Hunt & Expectations For Decelerating Inflation

2021-04-12

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2021-04-12

Lacy Hunt at Hoisington Management has some interesting thoughts regarding the inflation debate and the potential for decelerating inflation. Case For Decelerating Inflation In its Quarterly Review and Outlook for the First Quarter of 2021 Lacy Hunt makes a case for decelerating inflation.

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A Major Support For Asset Prices Has Reversed

2020-12-24

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2020-12-24

In 2019, we wrote about how corporate share repurchases, or “stock buybacks,” had accounted for nearly all buying in the market. A year later, that significant support for asset prices has reversed.

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Seth Levine: How I Process Ideas Into Investments

2020-11-20

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2020-11-20

Investing is incredibly hard. Mapping observations to security price movements are complex. Often, the relationships governing these moves are unknown. Yet, this is the investor’s task. I’ve used this blog as a tool for exploring some of these connections. It’s been incredibly rewarding.

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Retirement Income Planning Truth with Jim Otar. Part 1.

2020-10-11

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2020-10-11

Index Value Over Time
Income is the lifeblood of retirement.  In Part 1, wisdom from the early chapters of Jim Otar’s new book about retiree income challenges is explored. A one-person revolutionary.

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Consumer Mood Darkens On Employment Prospects

2020-09-27

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2020-09-27

Job Transitions, 2014-2020
A Fed survey of expectations shows that the consumer mood darkens on employment and job prospects. This chart shows the changes in employment status of respondents who were  employed four months ago. The Fed survey asks individuals currently employed (excluding self-employment) whether they are working in the same job as when they submitted their last survey. 

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Technically Speaking: Why This Isn’t 1920. Valuations & Returns

2020-08-26

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2020-08-26

SP500 Total Real Return, 1905 - 2019
Why this isn’t 1920 has everything to starting valuations and future returns. While, generally, I’m not too fond of comparisons between today’s markets and the past, Ed Yardeni made a comparison too bombastic to disregard in his blog.

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The 4.0 percent Rule Is Dead. What Should Retirees Do Now?

2020-08-24

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2020-08-24

Interest Rates, 1998 - 2020
The 4% Rule Is Dead. A recent article by Shawn Langlois via MarketWatch pointed out this sobering fact but is one we have discussed previously. Retirees have long counted on being able to retire on their assets and take out 4% each year. However, a little more than 20-years later, the “death of the withdrawal rate” has arrived. What should retirees do now?

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Technically Speaking: COT Positioning – Back To Extremes: Q2-2020

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust
As discussed in Is It Insanely Stupid To Chase Stocks, the market has gotten quite ahead of the fundamentals as money continues to chase performance. In the Q2-2020 review of Commitment Of Traders report (COT,) we can see how positioning has moved back to extremes.

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