Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will Wall St. See Santa this Year? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-07

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(12/7/22) Mutual Fund distributions and end of year repositioning is weighing on markets during the first half of December, as we predicted. Markets are perched right on the 100-DMA, holding support for the time being. Very typical for this time of the year, and this is what generally sets-up for the much-touted "Santa Claus Rally" at the end of the year. Will Santa stop at Broad & Wall this year?? There's no guarantee, but all of the...

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Fed Focus on Financials (12/7/22): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Advisor…

2022-12-07

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Nutty Predictions for 2023

2022-12-06

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(1/2/23) Could the corporate oliogarchs conspire to create a "Manhattan Project" for the development of a new energy source? Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2023. Might the EU Army rise up to force a complete union of Europe? Could one country completely ban all meat production by 2030? Don't laugh as we review the outrageous predictions for 2023 from the minds at Saxobank. 0:00 - Nutty New Year's Predictions Hosted by RIA...

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Will A Hawkish Fed Return Next Week? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-06

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(12/6/22) Markets took a tumble back below the 200-DMA as the Fed's own market whisperer, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, published comments that the Fed may not only hike rates more aggressively, but are nowhere near a pivot or pause in their monetary policy. The potential for more rate hikes in 2023 sent markets lower. The reality is that the Fed is still raising rates and reducing liquidity. The recent rally was predicated on slowing...

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The Problem with The Fed is The Fed

2022-12-06

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(12/6/22) The Fed is hell-bent on continuing the most aggressive interest rate hike campaign in 40-years. There is no hint of Fed softening or relenting, reinforced by comments published in the WSj to knock down spending, hiring, and inflation; Christmas shopping progress & supporting small businesses: The Houston gasoline station with Full Service pumps; how Nick Timiraos killed the market. What happens when rates rise, employment falls, and...

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Markets Break Following Fed Speech | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-05

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(12/5/22) Markets broke above the 200-DMA following last week's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which included somewhat dovish language. But markets moderated somewhat on Thursday, touching the 200-DMA and then sold-off. Encouraged by a stronger-than-expected Payrolls Report, markets broke back through the 200-DMA, but rallied again and essentially closed un-changed. All of these gyrations provided a successful test of the 200-DMA. If...

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What a Weak Dollar Means for the Markets

2022-12-05

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(12/5/22) Welcome to the first, full-week of trading for December, and the first test of the 200-DMA; the Fed rate hikes will continue until morale declines: The Fed does not like market rallies. Look for revisions next year in jobs numbers being reported now; watch the Dollar. Mutual fund and Portfolio repositioning is part of the rally in bonds; there is nothing from the Fed of a pending pivot, but markets continue to anticipate such. Will...

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The 43-Flavors of Medicare Advantage

2022-12-02

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(12/9/22) Why does Jerome Powell want you to lose your job? The nuttiness that is Janet Yellen, and those poor, underpaid folks at Goldman. There are 43 different Medicare Advantage offerings this year: How do you choose? Who's better at accepting mortality and making more rational investing decisions: Men or Women? SEG-1: Expecting a Soft Landing SEG-2:Medicare vs Medigap planning for 2023 Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning,...

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Why Does Jerome Powell Want You to Lose Your Job?

2022-12-02

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(12/3/22) Getting in the Christmas Spirit, Market Commentary, and Jobs Report preview & Fed strategy: Why does Jerome Powell want you to lose your job? Putting kids to work (and saving); 2023 RIA preview; positive savings aspects of Secure Act 2.0; Recession vs Stagflation & Tax Planning for 2023; 'tis the season for Rosso's Razzle-dazzle Eggnog; working side-gigs and SEP's; why every retirement account should have a Roth component; it's...

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Is the Fed Worried About Over-tightening? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-12-01

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(12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to...

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What’s Jerome Powell Afraid of?

2022-12-01

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(12/1/22) Is the Bull Market back? Fed Chairman Powell's somewhat dovish stance on Wednesday rallied markets to an over-3% gain, begging the question: What is Jerome Powell afraid of? Meanwhile, Markets have been consolidating for the past 6-months, and so remain. What markets DIDN'T hear was that rate hikes will continue at a slower pace, but WILL continue. Concerns about over-tightening overshadowed other issues, like the price-wage spiral, and...

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All Eyes on Powell | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-30

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(11/30/22) A bevy of Economic reports could move markets today, but the biggest factor may well be what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has to say this afternoon. Personal Spending and the second estimate of Q3 GDP are released this morning. Powell's speech is the last public commentary before the Fed moves into a two-week blackout period ahead of their December 14 FOMC meeting, at which the next interest rate announcement will be made. Questions hoped...

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All I Want for Christmas is a Gift of Stocks

2022-11-30

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(11/30/22) The US beats Iran in World Soccer, and markets gird up for the last Fed speech of the year by Jerome Powell; that will be the big market mover today, in addition to economic releases of Q3 CPI and Home Sales; We looks at the concept of stock gifting for Christmas, along with the tax implications, qualified charitable donations, and end of year IRA contributions; other end-of-year hurdles include Required Minimum Distributions, and the...

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Bullard: No Pivot In Sight | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-29

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(11/29/22) Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year: "Gaslighting," which is what markets have been doing to investors all year. The Fed, however, has been very clear about its intention to continue to hike interest rates to stem the surging inflation. And yet...and yet, markets have continued to rally on hopes the Fed will "pivot." Markets finally got the message Monday and sold off. With the 20-DMA and the 100-DMA now very close...

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There’s No Such Thing as a “Soft” Recession

2022-11-29

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(11/29/22) Who's been gaslighting investors into thinking the Fed is going to suddenly pivot from its course of hiking rates to tame inflation? The Fed doesn't like it when markets rally, and the Fed has been clear more rate hikes are to come. Key to watch the VIX; why we're reducing exposure to energy stocks. The Fed is afraid inflation will become entrenched; we take a look at the history of markets and Fed responses; investors have been trained...

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Will the Thanksgiving Rally Continue? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-28

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(11/28/22) Markets rallied nicely in a holiday-shortened trading week with very light volume. Wednesday's release of the FOMC meeting minutes suggested the Fed would be reducing the pace of its interest rate hikes moving into next year. Markets continue in a very nicely defined uptrend. The 200-DMA will become a key level of resistance, keeping pressure on prices. Markets are getting over bought. The MACD Buy signal is getting over extended; any...

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Was Black Friday a Bust?

2022-11-28

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(11/28/22) Was Black Friday a bust? It's make-or-break time for Wall Street: Retail Sales numbers are nominal, and do not taking into consideration inflation impact: 78% jump in lay-away purchasing; stocks are trying to re-price-in downwardly revised earnings estimates. FOMC Meeting Minutes tend to suggest a terminal interest rate of 5.25%. Why do retail sales matter? 70% of GDP; markets are trying to price-in "reversion to normalcy;" how...

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Buy Backs Continue Market Support | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-11-23

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(11/23/22) Markets achieved a nice 1% rally Tuesday, with traders taking bets things will improve as 2022 winds-down. Stock buy backs helped support buying activity. The trading range remains very tight as the 20-DMA keeps moving up to support at the 100-DMA. Resistance, however, continues to fall with the 200-DMA moving down to the top of the trading range. Post-Thanksgiving, we'll be needing to see a stronger rally above the 200-DMA if we're...

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Warnings Are Still Falling, Just Not as Badly

2022-11-23

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(11/23/22) The Big Conundrum for next year is, 'what's going to happen?' It's important to leave portfolios open to the possibility of Recession, even though, if so, it would be The-Most-Anticipated Recession in history. What will FOMC Meeting Minutes reveal, and what is the "terminal rate" that ends Fed rate hikes? The cost of Thanksgiving is going up, and Black Friday spending will be an economic "tell" for the future. Is the...

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Will This Be a November to Remember?

2022-11-22

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(11/24/22) Why would the Fed pivot? When it does, it won't be good for equities. How is the crypto-phenomenon like the sub-prime crisis of bygone days? A discussion of what "pivot" is and is not; a comparison of economics, then and now; The Fed's rate hikes this year haven't hit yet, but when they do... the "lag effect" is being under-calculated. SEG-1: Why Would the Fed Pivot? SEG-2: What Happens When Debt Begins to Default?...

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