by Lance Roberts
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| (12/6/22) Markets took a tumble back below the 200-DMA as the Fed's own market whisperer, Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, published comments that the Fed may not only hike rates more aggressively, but are nowhere near a pivot or pause in their monetary policy. The potential for more rate hikes in 2023 sent markets lower. The reality is that the Fed is still raising rates and reducing liquidity. The recent rally was predicated on slowing rate hikes and a change of course by the Fed sooner than later. Deep Throat inferred otherwise. The downtrend line from January remains intact, and resistance levels are holding firm, and we're close to triggering a MACD sell signal. We're expecting a more hawkish tone from the Fed at next week's meeting. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Bull Case Has Two Problems" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-bull-case-has-a-two-problems/ -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #DeepThroat #200DMA#InterestRateHikes #MarketSupport #MarketRisk #Markets #Money #Investing |
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Retail Sales & False Confidence | 3:00 on Markets & Money
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(11/16/22) [NOTE: This segment recorded before Retail Sales figures for October was reported at +1.3%, vs the anticipated 1.2%% increase] Markets were waiting for October’s Retail Sales report, expected to be strongly influenced by data from California, which is a large consumer-state. Cali Gov. Gavin Newsom last month issued more stimulus checks to offset inflation and higher fuel prices. The artificially spurred spending is expected to have spiked sales numbers. Stronger retail sales will likely give the Fed a false confidence that all is well in the economy, and continued rate hikes are okay, which bodes poorly for Wall Street. Increasing layoffs and port closings portend a weakening economy, but that weakness could be masked by stronger sales numbers. Markets have enjoyed a nice
How High Will Fed Rates Need to Go?
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(9/15/22) Markets remain in a broad trading range, even as the Fed prepares for next week’s FOMC Meeting: We’re witnessing bear market behavior, grinding down investors. The VIX "fear gauge" is remarkably tame. Oil prices could rally to a range of $90-$95/bbl; Michael Lebowitz’ motto shifts from "Don’t Fight the Fed" to "Follow the Fed," and note its bullish- or bearish-stances. The Fed today (9/15) begins its quantitative tightening. There’s no perceptible change in Fed stance: Get rates as high as needed as fast as possible; today’s inflation is not the same as in the ’70’s; the problem with trailing indicators; What will the Fed do next (and note that they don’t have to wait until the next meeting to move rates.) Investor navigation is a matter of recognizing the trends.
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The Death Cross & Oil Prices | 3:00 on Markets & Money
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(9/8/22) Markets rallied off important support on Wednesday, but failed at the 50- and 100-DMA’s. However, the market did sustain the rising trend line, with sell signals still in place. This may get us to a point where markets can consolidate to provide another buying opportunity. Markets also held support at May’s lows. Today’s ECB rate hike announcement and the Fed’s policy comments later today will affect markets–we’re expecting a 75bp Fed rate hike later this month. Oil has also been on sell signals and over-sold, but there was a death cross of the 50-DMA below the 200-DMA yesterday, suggesting oil prices could go lower. Prices remain under pressure as demand crumbles from the weight of higher inflation.
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Will a Hold at the 50-DMA Level Continue? | 3:00 on Markets & Money
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(8/30/22) With markets in an over-sold on multiple levels, a rally was due, and markets did on Monday test the 50-DMA and bounced, almost rallying to break-even, before slipping back to the close. Markets actually posted a "green candle" for the day. Tuesday morning futures are pointing higher, as a prelude to an attempt at a bounce, with the potential to get back up to the 20-DMA. We will likely see a rally that is sold-into. A rally to reverse the over-sold condition is needed if the sell-off is to continue. A hold at the 50-DMA level will continue the upward trend and allow the bulls a little more room in which to work. We’re suggesting using any rally to sell-into and raise some cash, because there is still risk to the downside.
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