Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Stocks or Bonds?

2023-08-15

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Why the Fed Will Cut Rates

2023-08-14

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(8/14/23) August means hot weather in Texas, and the conclusion of earnings season, with a re-focusing on economic data. A burning question at the upcoming Jackson Hole rich guys' confab: What will it take for the Fed to lower rates? Profit margins are lower, but holding; Markets test 50-DMA and bounce. The real Fed funds rate; why the Fed would cut rates: Recession or crisis (the Fed WILL cut rates, just needs a reason). The Saga of the Roberts'...

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Financial Fitness Friday (8/11/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA Adviso…

2023-08-11

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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What Happens if Inflation Ticks-up?

2023-08-10

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(8/10/23) CPI Day: What happens if Inflation ticks-up? No expectation of Fed to react w rate hike; the housing component of CPI, Home Owner Equivalent Rent, lags by 3-months. Tomorrow's PCE report may provide more clarity in direction Fed is likely to go. Markets sell of as correction continues, now down 3%; why bonds are the best bet for now. The Jobs Opening & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) vs Employment numbers: it's all a calculation....

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The Source of Economic Resilience (8/9/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RI…

2023-08-09

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Are Markets Pricing-in Better Times Ahead?

2023-08-08

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(8/8/23) The risk for uptick in Inflation: Is the Fed done? Markets fail test of 20-DMA; expect markets to trend sideways. How markets tend to lead the economy; pricing-in better times ahead? The Market Cycle: is there a move to the upside? Market Predictions for economic recovery: Recession in an election year: The incumbent loses. Incentives for Government to prop up economy until after an election. The stages of the economic cycle. What it takes...

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Rates Can Go Only One Way (down) (8/7/23)

2023-08-07

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(8/7/23) Wrapping up earnings season: 80%+ of major companies will have reported by week's end, with many "beats" of lowered earnings estimates. Meanwhile, economic data is showing signs of concern, but nothing terrible. Employment data is showing a slowing; markets continue their corrective ways: How long can this correction last? Year-over-year math of Inflation: About to enter period in which computed inflation goes back up. What is...

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What Gen-X Needs to Retire

2023-08-04

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(8/4/23) Digesting the Fitch Ratings downgrade: Defining "safety." The Degeneration of American Culture is accelerating; are we becoming Japan? Robert Shiller's "Narrative Encounter;" AI & Productivity: what it means for companies. Does today's workforce even have the skills to utilize AI? Why common sense must be taught (the ill-effects of pandemic lock-down).Corporate culture is a sewer. New rules for Roth in the Secure...

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Why the Fitch Ratings Downgrade Doesn’t Really Matter

2023-08-03

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(8/3/23) Earnings season is seeing unusual reward & punishment for results. Is dis-inflation and 2% growth coming? Earnings beats have lifted markets, bullish sentiment is rising sharply without the benefit of liquidity support. The Market correction begins: breakout of 20DMA is no big deal, but watch the 50DMA. Fixing Government spending and the Fitch Ratings downgrade: It's a joke. Explaining US Debt to Income Ratio; A look at the veracity of...

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Six Signs You’re Ready to Retire

2023-08-02

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(8/2/23) Despite claims of no Recession imminent, tax receipt declines and other indicators belie an emerging weakness in the economy. The timing of a Recession, however, is still uncertain. The NASDAQ remains the winner this year, but negative divergences are beginning to appear. The index has rallied back to January's highs without the benefit of additional stimulus. Fitch Credit Rating Downgrade preview (tune in tomorrow!) Six signs you're ready...

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Markets Summer Heat in Full Swing

2023-08-01

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(8/1/23) Summer is in full-swing, and markets are matching the heat with extreme bullish sentiment. What is the cost of hedging your portfolio over time? No one believes a correction is coming (so it probably will). Companies are receiving no reward for beating (lowered) estimates; the number of companies achieving beats is declining. 3% - 5% correction in August should come as no surprise. Bullishness in S&P 500: Everyone can't wait to get in;...

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Is the Bull Market Unstoppable?

2023-07-31

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(7/31/23) Investors prepare for August with the "rarity" of market performance: entering the seasonably weaker months of summer with 90% of stocks trading above their moving average; there is a high likelihood they will come back down. Earnings Season continues with the bulk of performance reports negative: We're getting more earnings "beats," but less of a beat than usual and on lowered estimates!) What are you really paying...

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2023 Mid-Year Economic Review

2023-07-27

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Intro/Disclaimer 1.) How We Got Here: Bull Markets, Bear Markets, & Corrections 2.) This is the first look at the effects of March 2022 (charts) Economic Output Composite Index vs Leading Economic Indicators; vs S&P 500 EPS; Federal Receipts & Expenditures vs GDP; Earnings Estimates Ahead of Realities; Deviation Above 50-DMA & Technical Indicators 3.) Under-estimating effect of Economic Stimulus/Inflation Reduction Act 4.) Other...

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Still No Recession?

2023-07-27

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(7/27/23) An overview of the current earnings reporting reveals profit margins have declined to pre-pandemic levels. Markets' flat response to Jerome Powell post-FOMC meeting presser The effects of shrinkflation are beginning to fade; no 2% inflation expected until late 2025. Will rate cuts return by then? Markets don't have a friendly Fed; a huge concern for impact of the Lag Effect; still possible for yet another rate increase of .25 to .50% by...

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How Millionaires Spend Their Money

2023-07-26

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(7/28/23) How do Millionaires spend their money? No processed food: Health = wealth; no cheap stuff; buy in the middle. Look for dependability in durable goods purchases. [NOTE: This segment is excerpted from a previous show broadcast on 7/7/23].   Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch the full show from which this...

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Outliving Your 401k: Don’t Fear the Reaper (7/26/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commenta…

2023-07-26

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Mega Earnings Preview (7/25/23): Technical Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief I…

2023-07-25

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Earnings Parade Continues

2023-07-24

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(7/24/23) Will market volatility return with a rebalancing of the NASDAQ and Index Funds: Where will the money go? The Barbenheimer Weekend; GDP & Debr-driven liquidity: The problem of debt servicing. Earnings parade continues: Preview w Domino's Pizza as economic indicator; the importance of understanding earnings & estimates. Are you really getting everything you're paying for? Example: Apple is 1/8th US GDP: How can growth estimates be...

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How to Demolish Your Retirement

2023-07-21

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(7/21/23) Are you happy with the markets? You can't fight the tape; the slowdown of the consumer has yet to occur; transcripts of earnings calls have not been dire. How to deal with IRS Rules changes for IRA's. If the government is taking your money like this now, what will they do next? Why they're pushing Roth's: they want your money now. Inherited IRA's vs Roth's: Roth conversions as legacy strategy. (Why all the delay and confusion with RMD...

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Living with the Lag Effect

2023-07-20

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(7/20/23) Earnings season continues with Regional Banks' performance, "so far, so good," but related concerns persist. Markets have retraced over 78% of their decline from January 2022 all-time highs; are new, all-time highs about to he achieved? Are banks presently enjoying a perfect economic environment? Are companies pricing-in growth that cannot be delivered? Sector rotation impact; looking at the lag-effect; how to higher interest...

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