by Lance Roberts
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| (12/1/22) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell Wednesday implied concern about over-tightening the economy, a very different tack than was expressed just a month ago, when he said he WASN'T worried about over-tightening because the Fed had "tools to solve that problem." What's changed? Employment is showing signs of weakening, manufacturing is showing signs of slowing, so NOW he's worried about over-tightening. That's all market bulls needed to hear to surge 3.1%. But to put that into perspective, we rallied 5.5% following the release of October CPI on anticipation the Fed would slow the pace of its rate increases. But that's not what Powell said: The Fed may need to hike even more next year, raising the potential for a terminal rate of over 5%. Markets didn't hear that, however. Markets are getting a bit over-bought, the MACD Buy-signal is still in place, and markets have gotten above the 200-DMA. But with markets over-bought, it may be a little late to be chasing them; be careful! Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #InterestRateHikes #MarketSupport #MarketRisk #Markets #Money #Investing |
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(10/18/22) Why is the 200-WMA considered critical support for the markets? While we’ve been in a correction-mode, we’re technically not in a bear market…yet…because we haven’t violated the bullish trend of the 200-WMA.
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(10/12/22) Janet Yellen tells CNBC essentially, "What, me worry?" Will the Recession be as "mild" as expected? Consumption will eventually slow down; "good" employment numbers are a lagging indicator AND subject to revision. Greta endorses nukes for electricity; the challenge of creating financial stability during transitional times. The Inmate Money Scammer; finding financial security in the U.S.; what happens with a strong dollar; all countries manipulate their currencies to adjust to the Dollar. Markets will stop panicking when Central Banks begin to panic. Germany is in trouble this winter; PPI preview; the co-dependency of global markets
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Be Careful: We’re Not Out of The Woods Yet | 3:00 on Markets & Money (10/4/22)
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(10/4/22) The extreme over-sold and negative conditions that exist in the market are very similar to what se saw back in June, which resulted in a subsequent 17% rally. Jim Cramer called The Bottom…again and again. All of these elements are creating a squeeze on short plays, and elevation in prices. All we need now is for Cramer to call the bottom. Again. Our take: Be careful. We’re set up for a decent rally with a target of 3,800 or 3,900. But as the market rallies to various levels, be smart; take profits and raise cash each time. It’s very likely we’re not out of the woods yet, as the Fed continues to hike rates, inflation is still high, and economic growth is slow. The fundamentals for a more sustained bull rally are not yet in place, but the short term scenario is good for
The Bond Investors’ Primer
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(9/30/22) The Bond Market is in the biggest bear mode in history; Lance and Michael discuss the role of Bonds as investors struggle with loss of ability to manage risk. What is a Bond? What is a Coupon? The difference between equities & bonds is in the return of principal. Why Buy Bonds; how is the rate calculated? What is the real yield? The lower risk in bonds: no loss of principal. The Fed is manufacturing recession.
0:17 – Solutions for the Loss of Ability to Manage Risk
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When Inflation Reduction Becomes Climate Change (8/8/22)
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(8/8/22) The so-called "Inflation Reduction" Act gets a fresh skin, but it’s the same old wine, and its impact on inflation will be to exacerbate the problem further. The newly re-named the "Climate Change & Tax Act" is the same old tax & spend bill as before; the devil is in the details. How the math really works, and why inflation will be lower in 2023, but not down to the Fed’s 2% target. 10% of the bill will fund hiring 87k new IRS employees. Stock buy-backs have helped keep stock prices elevated; how new bill’s tax buy backs will affect markets. Corporate taxes will be passed on to consumers.
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“Not Bad” vs “Good” | 3:00 on Markets & Money
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(8/1/22) Markets have been extremely bearish, very over-sold, very bearish, and overdue for a very nice, a countertrend rally, which finally occurred in July. When markets began to come to the realization the deflation may be a bigger issue than inflation, we started to see a rotation out of Value and into Tech. That the bullish set-up that would indicate higher stock prices in the near-term. But as we move into the month of August, which is historically a weaker month, it would not be surprising to see a bit of consolidation pull-back. Much will depend upon the Fed’s next step. A higher-than-expected CPI print in August could push the Fed for stronger anti-inflationary measures in September. When the Fed stops its rate hikes, a recession, and a decline in asset prices are typically not
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