Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Firm as Two-Day FOMC Meeting Begins

2019-10-29

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2019-10-29

The dollar continues to gain traction as the two-day FOMC begins; US political uncertainty has entered a new phase. Yesterday marked the third time that UK Prime Minister Johnson lost a vote for elections; he will try again today. Weak South Africa data support our call for imminent easing; the threat of sanctions against Turkey are back on the table.

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More Points For, And Pointing To, The Midpoint

2019-10-29

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2019-10-29

Wholesale Sales & Inventory, SA 2016-2019
It’s not surprising that the Census Bureau would report another weird sideways trend in wholesale sales. After all, the agency has already produced that kind of pattern in the related data for durable goods. For reasons that aren’t going to be explained, economic activity across the supply chain from producers to consumers has been curtailed. That hasn’t mean outright shrinking in seasonally adjusted forms, but it also doesn’t mean growth,...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-28

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2019-10-28

EM has been on a good run but this week will be a big test.  Brexit uncertainty may finally end.  Or it may not.  A delay would be positive for EM, whilst a potential hard Brexit would be negative.  The Fed meets Wednesday and key US data will be reported during the week, culminating with the jobs report Friday. 

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Somehow Still Decent European Descent

2019-10-28

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2019-10-28

IHS Markit Germany Flash PMI
How times have changed. In the middle of 2018, we were told the risks to the global economy were all tilted to the upside. If central bankers weren’t careful, they chanced an uncontrollable inflationary breakout, the kind that would make the last few years of the 2010’s look too much like the 1970’s. Always eager to bottle up the inflation genie, Germany out of everyone actually welcomed negative factors as they built up during the year.

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Downward Home Prices In The Downturn, Too

2019-10-26

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2019-10-26

New Home Sales, 2011-2019
The Census Bureau reported today New Home Sales remained at a better than 700k SAAR in September following the big jump over the previous few months. Though the number was slightly lower last month than the month before, it wasn’t meaningfully less. As discussed yesterday, while that might seem the Fed’s rate cut psychology combined with the bond market’s pessimism (reducing the mortgage rate) is having a positive effect, I don’t see it that...

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Doping in sport: why it can’t be stopped | The Economist

2019-10-25

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Many sports’ reputations are being tarnished by doping scandals. The International Olympic Committee and The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) should be responsible for tackling drug cheats—but are they at the heart of the problem? Read more here: https://econ.st/2Weuels Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy It was one of sport’s darkest episodes. …

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Charles Hugh Smith new book – Will You Be Richer Or Poorer?

2019-10-25

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Charles Hugh Smith new book – Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2019/10/25/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-new-book-will-you-be-richer-or-poorer/

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More Down In The Downturn

2019-10-25

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2019-10-25

IHS Markit US Manufacturing, 2012-2019
Flash PMI’s from IHS Markit for the US economy were split in October. According to the various sentiment indicators, there’s a little bit of a rebound on the manufacturing side as contrary to the ISM’s estimates for the same sector. Markit reports a sharp uptick in current manufacturing business volumes during this month.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Whole Political Severe Is Highly Polarized Now

2019-10-24

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Macro Housing: Bargains and Discounts Appear

2019-10-24

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2019-10-24

Housing Construction, 2009-2019
While things go wrong for Jay Powell in repo, they are going right in housing. Sort of. It’s more than cliché that the real estate sector is interest rate sensitive. It surely is, and much of the Fed’s monetary policy figuratively banks on it. When policymakers talk about interest rate stimulus, they largely mean the mortgage space.

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The Unraveling Quickens

2019-10-24

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2019-10-24

Income Gains, 1980-2015
Even if we don't measure the erosion of intangible capital, the social and political consequences of this impoverishment are manifesting in all sorts of ways. The central thesis of my new book Will You Be Richer or Poorer? is the financial "wealth" we've supposedly gained (or at least a few of us have gained) in the past 20 years has masked the unraveling of our intangible capital: the resilience of our economy, our social capital, i.e. our ability...

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

US TIC, 2013-2019
The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t...

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A New Stage of the US-China Conflict

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

The US-China diplomatic relationship may be entering a new stage. The balance of power between the key players – Trump, China, the US Congress, and the Democrats – is changing and their roles are being reshuffled. This might be enough to break the endless cycle of agreements and re-escalations. In short, we think both Trump and Chinese officials have a greater incentive to reach a deal (or at least not to escalate) this time around.

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Could deepfakes weaken democracy? | The Economist

2019-10-22

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Videos can be faked to make people say things they never actually said. This poses dangers for democracy. Can you spot ALL the deep fake interviews in this film? Read more here: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/11/09/women-in-public-life-are-increasingly-subject-to-sexual-slander-dont-believe-it Artwork by: Bill Posters and Daniel Howe Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy These videos are all deepfakes....

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The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

China Industrial Production, 1998-2019
China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of Chinese officials.

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Prying Open the Overton Window

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Acceleration of Technological Adoption Curves, 1867-2017
If you're truly interested in finding solutions to humanity's pressing problems, then start helping us pry open the Overton Window. The Overton Window describes the spectrum of concepts, policies and approaches that can be publicly discussed without being ridiculed or marginalized as "too radical," "unworkable," "crazy," etc. 

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Charles Hugh Smith – The Financial System is Headed for Collapse

2019-10-21

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SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #FINANCIAL CRISIS #OIL PRICE #PETROL #GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE #DOLLAR COLLAPSE #GOLD #SILVER #BITCOIN #ETHERIUM #CRYPTOCURRENCY #LITECOIN #FINANCIAL CRASH #GLOBAL RESET #FINANCIAL CRISIS #ECONOMIC COLLAPSE #NYSE #NASDAQ

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All-Stars #72 Jeff Snider: The Supply-side of the Eurodollar equation

2019-10-21

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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Brexit: Live Q&A with The Economist

2019-10-21

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It has been a busy time for British politics. Again, Brexit is taking over the headlines. John Peet, The Economist’s Brexit editor, takes your questions in a live Q&A. https://econ.st/32C5Cpa Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For specific questions, please see timecodes here: 01:30 What happened on Saturday 19th October? 05:55 …

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What We’ve Lost

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

This is only a partial list of what we've lost to globalism, cheap credit and the Tyranny of Price which generates the Landfill Economy. A documentary on the decline of small farms and the rural economy in France highlights what we've lost in the decades-long rush to globalize and financialize everything on the planet-- what we call Neoliberalism, the ideology of turning everything into a global market controlled by The Tyranny of Price and cheap...

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