Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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With Superfluous Demand in Free-Fall, What’s the Upside of Re-Opening a Small Business?

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

Since superfluous demand was the core driver of most consumer spending, and that demand is in free-fall, what's the upside of re-opening? The mainstream view assumes everyone will be gripped by an absolutely rabid desire to return to their pre-pandemic frenzy of borrowing and spending and consuming, the more the better. 

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The Puppet Show Is Powerful

2020-04-29

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2020-04-29

I never said it wasn’t powerful. What I continue to show is that it doesn’t work. Ben Bernanke kept his job because despite the carnage, in times of turmoil people are willing to give anyone a second chance. And if the turmoil never ends, so much the luckier – for him. 

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Covid-19: the right way to leave lockdown | The Economist

2020-04-28

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Governments are starting to ease restrictions designed to curb covid-19. But with most of the world still vulnerable to the virus, what's the right way to leave lockdown? Read more here: https://econ.st/3bMn3YU Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here:...

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Covid-19: the right way to leave lockdown | The Economist

2020-04-28

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Governments are starting to ease restrictions designed to curb covid-19. But with most of the world still vulnerable to the virus, what’s the right way to leave lockdown? Read more here: https://econ.st/3bMn3YU Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Further reading: Find The Economist’s most …

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as Risk-on Sentiment Persists

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

The death toll from the virus continues to trend lower in Europe and the US; the dollar remains under some pressure. The Fed announced an expansion of its Municipal Liquidity Facility (MLF); regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out; other data will be reported.

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The Crash Has Only Just Begun

2020-04-28

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2020-04-28

Everything, including a rational, connected-to-reality, effective financial system, is on back-order and unlikely to ship any time soon. While the stock market euphorically front-runs the Fed and a V-shaped recovery, the reality is the crash has only just begun.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-04-27

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2020-04-27

The FOMC meets Wednesday; first look at Q1 US GDP comes out Wednesday; weekly jobless claims Thursday are expected at 3.5 mln vs. 4.427 mln last week. Italy dodged a bullet last Friday; ECB meets Thursday; eurozone reports Q1 GDP and April CPI data ahead of the ECB decision; Sweden’s Riksbank meets Tuesday.

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Jeff Snider 2: the FED’s main tool since 2008 is psychology

2020-04-26

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Jeff Snider was talking today about what the FED is capable of doing. How the FED bureaucracy works. How they buy things. When the system broke. And what the FED is actually doing. May surprise you.

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Thoughts on the Potential Market Impact of US Downgrades

2020-04-26

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2020-04-26

Our sovereign rating model suggests the US will lose its AAA/Aaa rating.  With fiscal stimulus efforts continuing with this latest $484 bln package, the case for downgrades just keep getting stronger but the timing is unclear.  How might markets react?  We look back to 2011 for some clues.

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Jeff Snider (Macro/Repo/Eurodollar NINJA!) Rebel Capitalist Show Ep. 41!

2020-04-25

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Jeff Snider reveals insights ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?This interview with Jeff Snider is absolutely packed with knowledge bombs!! Jeff and I discuss ALL TODAYS HOT TOPICS, how the unemployment rate can be deceiving and if you look at the clues in the bond market and the oil market you can get a better idea of where the stock market is headed. Jeff is truly in a league of his own and he shares an incredible amount of his wisdom and knowledge...

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Dollar Steady as Global Economy Falls Off a Cliff

2020-04-25

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2020-04-25

Mexico Bond and CDS, 2020
The virus news stream is negative today; the dollar is trying to build on its recent gains. Weekly jobless claims are expected at 4.5 mln vs. 5.245 mln last week; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for April continue to roll out. ECB confirmed reports that it will accept sub-investment grade debt as collateral; EU leaders will hold a video conference today.

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AxisOfEasy Salon #1: Hypernormalisation, Legitimacy and Simulacrum

2020-04-24

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The first episode in the AxisOfEasy Salon and Interviews series with the AoE Contributors: Charles Hugh Smith, Jesse Hirsh and Mark E. Jeftovic.

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AxisOfEasy Salon #1: Hypernormalisation, Legitimacy and Simulacrum

2020-04-24

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The first episode in the AxisOfEasy Salon and Interviews series with the AoE Contributors: Charles Hugh Smith, Jesse Hirsh and Mark E. Jeftovic.

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The Fallen Kings & The Bond Throne of Collateral

2020-04-24

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2020-04-24

UST Yield Curve, 2017-2020
There is no schadenfreude at times like these, no time to dance on anyone’s grave. Victory laps are a luxury that only central bankers take – always prematurely. The world already coming apart because of GFC1, what comes next with GFC2 and then whatever follows it? Another “bond king” has thrown in the towel.

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EM Sovereign Rating Model For Q2 2020

2020-04-24

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2020-04-24

Emerging Markets Q2 2020
The major ratings agencies are punishing Emerging Markets (EM) credits much more than their DM counterparts.  Our own sovereign ratings model suggests that there is still more pain to come. We have produced this interim ratings model to assist investors in assessing relative sovereign risk across the major EMs. 

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Jeff Snider: the world banking EuroDollar system Jedi

2020-04-23

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Shadow Banking. Go look up Jeff Snider. This is not an advertisement. He's just the best resource for learning about the world banking system, called the EuroDollar system. He has Twitter, and EuroDollar University videos on YouTube.

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An International Puppet Show

2020-04-23

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2020-04-23

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2006-2020
It’s actually pretty easy to see why the IMF is in a hurry to secure more resources. I’m not talking about potential bailout candidates banging down the doors; that’s already happened. The fund itself is doing two contradictory things simultaneously: telling the world, repeatedly, that it has a highly encouraging $1 trillion in bailout capacity at the same time it goes begging to vastly increase that amount.

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Dollar Stalls as Market Sentiment Improves

2020-04-23

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2020-04-23

The virus news stream remains mixed; oil remains at center stage with still extreme volatility. The White House and House Democrats struck a deal on a new aid package worth $484 bln. Canada reports March CPI; Mexico delivered a surprise 50 bp cut to 6.0% yesterday afternoon.

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The Greenspan Bell

2020-04-22

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2020-04-22

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2020
What set me off down the rabbit hole trying to chase modern money’s proliferation of products originally was the distinct lack of curiosity on the subject. This was the nineties, after all, where economic growth grew on trees. Reportedly. Why on Earth would anyone purposefully go looking for the tiniest cracks in the dam?

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Covid-19: Why is America’s death toll so high? | The Economist

2020-04-21

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America's covid-19 death toll is higher than anywhere else in the world—and is continuing to mount. What’s behind the country’s coronavirus pandemic failings? Read more here: https://econ.st/2zl0BaX Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Sign up to The...

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