Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-20

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2020-01-20

Market sentiment on EM remains positive after the Phase One trade deal was signed.  Data out of China is also supportive for EM.  Key forward-looking data this week are Taiwan export orders and Korea trade data for the first 20 days of January.  The global liquidity story also remains beneficial for risk, with the ECB, Norges Bank, BOC, and BOJ all set to maintain steady rates this week.

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Germany, Maybe Europe: No Signs Of The Bottom

2020-01-19

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2020-01-19

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
For anyone thinking the global economy is turning around, it’s not the kind of thing you want to hear. Germany has been Ground Zero for this globally synchronized downturn. That’s where it began, meaning first showed up, all the way back at the start of 2018. Ever since, the German economy has been pulling Europe down into the economic abyss along with it, being ahead of the curve in signaling what was to come for the whole rest of the global...

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Inside Iran: what’s next? | The Economist

2020-01-18

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When Iran’s military forces mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet it sparked widespread protests around the country. Iran’s leaders face being overwhelmed by a crisis they created—how will they respond? Read more here: https://econ.st/30whzMT Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Iran’s leaders are facing unprecedented pressure from abroad and at …

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Inflation, But Only At The Morgue

2020-01-18

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2020-01-18

Mortality Rates Divided by age group, 1999-2017
Why is everyone so angry? How can socialism possibly be on such a rise, particularly among younger people around the world? Why are Americans suddenly dying off? According to one study, two-thirds of millennials are convinced they are doing worse when compared to their parents’ generation. Sixty-two percent say they are living paycheck to paycheck, with no savings and no way to get any (though they also tend to “overspend” when compared to other...

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De-dollarization By Default Is Not What You Might Think

2020-01-17

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2020-01-17

CPMI Correspondent Banking Data, 2011-2018
Last month, a group of central bank governors from across the South Pacific region gathered in Australia to move forward the idea of a KYC utility. If you haven’t heard of KYC, or know your customer, it is a growing legal requirement that is being, and has been, imposed on banks all over the world. Spurred by anti-money laundering efforts undertaken first by the European Union, more and more governments are forcing global banks to take part.

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Dollar Soft Ahead of Retail Sales Data

2020-01-17

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2020-01-17

There were no surprises in the US-China Phase One trade deal. The dollar is drifting lower ahead of the key retail sales data; there are other minor US data out today. Bank of England credit survey showed demand for loans fell in Q4. Turkey cut its one-week repo rate by 75 bps to 11.25%; South Africa is expected to keep rates steady at 6.5%.

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WTF: What The Fed?! Mike Maloney, Chris Martenson, Grant Williams & Charles Hugh Smith

2020-01-17

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Get the bonus video here: https://www.peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed-insights-from-advisers-sign-up “The plain truth is… we are in the middle of QE4 right now” – Grant Williams during WTF: What the Fed. The Federal Reserve looks to be pumping a healthy patient of full of drugs… Something is not adding up. And Mike Maloney agrees… He recently recorded a free …

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Instability Rising: Why 2020 Will Be Different

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

Shares of Gross Domestic Income, 1960-2019
In 2020, increasing monetary and fiscal stimulus will be the equivalent of spraying gasoline on a fire to extinguish it. Economically, the 11 years since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 have been one relatively coherent era of modest growth, rising wealth/income inequality and coordinated central bank stimulus every time a crisis threatened to disrupt the domestic or global economy.

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Clarida Picks Up Some Data

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

China Exports, 2006-2019
I should know better than to make declarative all-or-none statements like this. I said there isn’t any data which comports with the idea of a global turnaround, this shakeup in sentiment which since early September has gone right from one extreme to the other. Recession fears predominated in summer only to be (rather easily) replaced by near euphoria (again).

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Very Rough Shape, And That’s With The Payroll Data We Have Now

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

Household Survey: Civilian Employment, 2017-2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has begun the process of updating its annual benchmarks. Actually, the process began last year and what’s happening now is that the government is releasing its findings to the public. Up first is the Household Survey, the less-watched, more volatile measure which comes at employment from the other direction. As the name implies, the BLS asks households who in them is working whereas the more closely scrutinized...

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Some Thoughts on the Latest Treasury FX Report

2020-01-15

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2020-01-15

FX Report
The US Treasury’s latest “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States” report no longer considers China a currency manipulator. The underlying message is that the Trump administration will continue to use an ad hoc “carrot and stick” approach to improve US access to the domestic markets of its major trading partners.

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How science is changing the nature of families | The Economist

2020-01-14

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Science is enabling women to have children later in life as new technologies transform IVF success rates. But an increasingly globalised IVF trade also poses dangers. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Science is changing how and when families are made. Women are going to be able to have both career …

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Repo Market: Discover New Insider Secrets (THIS WILL BLOW YOUR MIND!)

2020-01-14

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Repo market insider Jeff Snider reveals shocking new facts ?YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO MISS! ?The repo market survived the end of the year but the fed is still printing money to bail out the system. Repo market operations seem to have become permanent. But Jeff Snider has a completely different explanations, and as usually Jeff Sniders repo market explanations seem far better researched, articulated and probable. And of course I explain them to you so...

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Just a Friendly Heads-Up, Bulls: The Fed Just Slashed its Balance Sheet

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Assets: Total Assets, 2019-2020
Perhaps even PhD economists notice that manic-mania bubbles always burst--always. Just a friendly heads-up to all the Bulls bowing and murmuring prayers to the Golden Idol of the Federal Reserve: the Fed just slashed its balance sheet--yes, reduced its assets. After panic-printing $410 billion in a few months, a $24 billion decline isn't much, but it does suggest the Fed might finally be worrying about the reckless, insane bubble it inflated:

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

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2020-01-14

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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All-Stars #88 Jeff Snider: The Fed is avoiding the real issue driving divergences in their models

2020-01-13

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-01-13

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2020-01-13

EM has been able to get some traction as markets basically shrugged off the risk-off sentiment after the Iran attacks.  This week’s planned signing of the Phase One trade deal should help boost EM further, but we remain cautious.  The Iran situation is by no means solved, and we see periodic bouts of risk-off sentiment coming from smaller skirmishes. 

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Global Headwinds and Disinflationary Pressures

2020-01-11

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2020-01-11

Mexican Economy, 2006-2019
I’m going to go back to Mexico for the third day in a row. First it was imports (meaning Mexico’s exports) then automobile manufacturing and now Industrial Production. I’ll probably come back to this tomorrow when INEGI updates that last number for November 2019. For now, through October will do just fine, especially in light of where automobile production is headed (ICYMI, off the bottom of the charts).

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The Fed Can’t Reverse the Decline of Financialization and Globalization

2020-01-10

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2020-01-10

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2018
The global economy and financial system are both running on the last toxic fumes of financialization and globalization. For two generations, globalization and financialization have been the two engines of global growth and soaring assets. Globalization can mean many things, but its beating heart is the arbitraging of the labor of the powerless, and commodity, environmental and tax costs by the powerful to increase their profits and wealth.

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Dollar Builds on Gains as Iran Tensions Ease

2020-01-09

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2020-01-09

Markets have reacted positively to President Trump’s press conference yesterday, while the dollar continues to gain traction. The North American session is quiet in terms of US data. Mexico reports December CPI; Peru is expected to keep rates steady at 2.25%. German November IP was slightly better than expected but still tepid; sterling took a hit on dovish comments by outgoing BOE Governor Carney.

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