Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Returns

2020-06-25

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2020-06-25

Economic Surprise, 2019-2020
Risk-off sentiment has picked up from reports that the US will impose new tariffs against the EU; there’s also been a messy set of headlines regarding the virus contagion outlook in the US. The IMF will release updated global growth forecasts today; the dollar is benefiting from risk-off sentiment; another round of fiscal stimulus in the US is in the works.

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Covid-19: what you need to know about the second wave | The Economist

2020-06-24

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The world now faces the threat of a second wave of coronavirus outbreaks. Zanny Minton Beddoes, The Economist’s editor-in-chief, and Slavea Chankova, our health-care correspondent, answer your questions. Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2YU5Mrq Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.st/2V7o1sq The Economist...

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-06-24

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2020-06-24

There were minimal changes to the status quo as the week commences. Bangladesh has announced revised trading hours on the local exchanges. No change of status in Nigeria and Kenya as they both continue to face limited liquidity. Please see trading comments below.

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The Illusion of Control: What If Nobody’s in Charge?

2020-06-24

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2020-06-24

The last shred of power the elites hold is the belief of the masses that the elites are still in control. I understand the natural desire to believe somebody's in charge: whether it's the Deep State, the Chinese Communist Party, the Kremlin or Agenda 21 globalists, we're primed to believe somebody somewhere is controlling events or pursuing agendas that drive global responses to events.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-06-23

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2020-06-23

There are some indexing events this week that could add to market volatility; the IMF will release updated global growth forecasts Wednesday. The regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out; Fed speaking engagements are somewhat limited this week.

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June 21, 2020

2020-06-22

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For the Rich to Keep Getting Richer, We Have to Sacrifice Everything Else

2020-06-22

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2020-06-22

The Fruit of Financialization
They're hoping the endless circuses and trails of bread crumbs will forever distract us from their plunder and the inequalities built into America's financial system.. The primary story of the past 20 years is the already-rich have gotten much richer, with destabilizing economic, social and political consequences. 

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Our Wile E. Coyote Economy: Nothing But Financial Engineering

2020-06-21

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2020-06-21

Ours is a Wile E. Coyote economy, and now we're hanging in mid-air, realizing there is nothing solid beneath our feet. The story we're told about how our "capitalist" economy works is outdated. The story goes like this: companies produce goods and services for a competitive marketplace and earn a profit from this production. These profits are income streams for investors, who buy companies' stocks based on these profits. As profits rise, so do...

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The Smallness of the Most Gigantic

2020-06-20

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2020-06-20

US Retail Sales, Stagnation 1992-2020
These numbers do seem epic, don’t they? It’s hard to ignore when you have the greatest percentage increase in the history of a major economic account. Just writing that sentence it’s difficult to deny the power of those words. Which is precisely the point: we already know ahead of time how the biggest economic holes in history are going to produce the biggest positives coming out of them.

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June 19, 2020

2020-06-19

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The carbon cycle is key to understanding climate change | The Economist

2020-06-19

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Until a few hundred years ago there was a perfect balance of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. Human activity has disrupted that balance. What can be done to restore it? Find our school briefings series here, including our recent climate explainers: https://econ.st/2BQkGqU Sign up to receive The Economist’s fortnightly newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage on climate change: https://econ.st/2APVAIj Find The Economist’s...

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Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does the available economic data.

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The Fed’s Grand Bargain Has Finally Imploded

2020-06-19

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2020-06-19

The Fed has backed itself not into a corner but to the edge of a precipice. Though the Federal Reserve never stated its Grand Bargain explicitly, their actions have spoken louder than their predictably self-serving, obfuscatory public pronouncements. Here's the Grand Bargain they offered institutional investors and speculators alike.

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Dollar Suffers as Stimulus Efforts Boost Market Sentiment

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

US HY and IG Bonds Returns, 2020
Market sentiment reverse sharply to the positive side due to several factors; as a result, the dollar has suffered. The Fed beefed up its support for the corporate bond market; all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell as he delivers his semi-annual report to the Senate today. The Trump administration is reportedly preparing a large infrastructure bill; May retail sales will be the data highlight.

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Fed Balance Sheet: Swap Me Update

2020-06-18

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2020-06-18

Fed Balance Sheet: Assets, 2007-2020
Just a quick update to add a little more data and color to my last Friday’s swap line criticism so hopefully you can better see how there is intentional activity behind them. Since a few people have asked, I’ll break them out with a little more detail. While the volume of swaps outstanding at the Fed has, in total, remained relatively constant (suspiciously, if you ask me), the underlying tenor of them has not.Meaning, there is purpose.

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A Chinese Outbreak (of Li v. Xi, Round 2)

2020-06-17

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2020-06-17

China Industrial Production, 1999-2020
Here they are again, seemingly at odds over how to proceed. Reminiscent of prior battles over whether to revive the economy or just let it go where it will, it appears as if China is in for Xi vs. Li Round 2. Or is it all just clever politics? Li Keqiang may be nominally the Chinese Premier but he’s a very distant second on every list of power players. Xi Jinping holds all the top spots, including a 2017-18 consolidation of power that left Xi...

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Is the Pandemic Over and a V-Shaped Recovery Baked In?

2020-06-15

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2020-06-15

So what do we know with any sort of certainty about the claim that "the pandemic is over"? Very little. Is the pandemic over in China, Europe, Japan and the U.S./Canada? Is the much-anticipated V-Shaped economic recovery already baked in, i.e. already gathering momentum? The consensus, as reflected by the stock market (soaring), the corporate media and governmental easings of restrictions seems to be "yes" to both questions.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-06-15

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2020-06-15

EM and other risk assets stabilized to end the week after Thursday’s selloff, but remain vulnerable. The risks ahead are the same as before, which include a second wave of infections as well as a longer and shallower than expected recovery in global growth. The Fed’s message of low rates as far as the eye can see was balanced by Powell’s grim outlook for unemployment.

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This Thing Is Only Getting Started; Or, *All* The V’s Are Light On The Right

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

The Federal Reserve’s models really are the most optimistic of the bunch. With the policy meeting conducted today, no surprises as far as policies go, we now know what ferbus has to say about everything that’s happened this year. Skipping the usual March projections, what with the FOMC totally occupied at the time by a complete global monetary meltdown Jay Powell now says “we saw it coming”, the central bank staff released the calculations...

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Why The FOMC Just Embraced The Stock Bubble (and anything else remotely sounding inflationary)

2020-06-14

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2020-06-14

Mainstream Models World Bank
The job, as Jay Powell currently sees it, means building up the S&P 500 as sky high as it can go. The FOMC used to pay lip service to valuations, but now everything is different. He’ll signal to all those fund managers by QE raising bank reserves, leading them on in what they all want to believe is “money printing” (that isn’t).

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