Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Purchasing Managers Indigestion

2020-08-06

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2020-08-06

Europe ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, Jan 2017 - Jul 2020
There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

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5 Tax Strategies to Help you Hold on to Your Money in Retirement

2020-08-05

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2020-08-05

What is retirement, really? We think we know. So, we do our best to prepare for both current circumstances and as many surprises as we can conjure up.  After all, with people living longer than ever before your money has to last longer than ever before.

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Summer Special – Deep Dive into U.S. Dollar with Jeff Snider

2020-08-04

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MacroVoices Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeff Snider to the show to discuss the U.S. Dollar system, structurally how it works and why it’s leading systemically to a dollar shortage.

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Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Germany Federal Securities, 2018-2020
Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

EM currencies took advantage of broad dollar weakness against the majors last week, with most gaining against the greenback. Yet the week ended on a bit of a risk-off note as concerns intensified about the resurgent virus and the impact on the still-weak global economy.

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A Vaccine May Not Be the “Magical Cure” Everyone Anticipates

2020-08-03

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2020-08-03

Few appear willing to follow the probabilities of a future in which a vaccine cannot possibly be the "magic cure" everyone wants. Let's attempt the impossible and set aside all preconceptions we might have about a vaccine for Covid-19, and think it through somewhat dispassionately.

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Memo from Insiders: Dear Bagholders, Thanks for Buying Our Shares at the Top

2020-08-01

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2020-08-01

The self-sustaining recovery is a fantasy that's evaporated.What looks like a powerful, can't-lose rally to newbies is recognized as distribution by old hands. In low-volume markets (as in the past few months), insiders holding large positions can't dump all their shares at once or the price of the stock would plummet due to the thinness of the bid.

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Olympic champion Edwin Moses on covid-19, race and trans athletes | The Economist Podcasts

2020-07-31

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The coronavirus pandemic has derailed the Tokyo 2020 Olympics, but that’s not the only problem facing world sport. The Economist Asks podcast spoke to Edwin Moses, former hurdling gold medalist, about doping, race relations and the inclusion of transgender athletes in the Olympics. Further reading: Listen to the full podcast with Edwin Moses here: https://econ.st/2P8SrHp Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here:...

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That’s Probably Why Only Half a “V”

2020-07-31

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2020-07-31

IHS Markit US Composite, 2018-2020
Why only half a “V?” If the latest PMI’s are anywhere close to accurate, and they don’t have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May’s big payroll report surprise has dissipated in more than just the bond market.

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Dollar Weak Ahead of Likely Dovish Hold from the Fed

2020-07-30

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2020-07-30

US and Germany Yields
The FOMC decision today is likely to deliver a very dovish tone; the dollar tends to weaken on FOMC decision days. Tensions about the latest US stimulus bill are rising; core bond yields have been remarkably stable over the last several months.

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? Charles Hugh Smith | Economic analysis with what is happening

2020-07-29

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Charles Hugh Smith | Economic analysis with what is happening These are the kind of sharp economic analysis that is missing from Charles on the Axis of Easy salons.

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The Nation Is Falling Into the Abyss Between Wall Street and Main Street

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
The abyss between the Fed's illusion of phantom wealth for Wall Street and the collapse of Main Street is bottomless, and our descent into the abyss is accelerating. I know this runs counter to every dominant narrative, but a vaccine doesn't really matter, opening up doesn't really matter, and the size of the "free money" stimulus checks doesn't matter.

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Dollar Stabilizes but Further Losses Likely

2020-07-29

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2020-07-29

Dollar YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar is stabilizing today but further losses are likely. Senate Republicans have proposed a sharp cut to weekly unemployment benefits; Senator Collins will oppose Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed. Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out; early July reads for the US economy support our view that Q3 is off to a rocky start.

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Dollar Remains Under Pressure as European Outlook Shines

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

US Inflation Expectations, 2019-2020
The outlook for risk assets remains uncertain; the dollar continues to make new lows; the uncertain outlook continues to propel gold and silver higher. The next round of stimulus in the US is proving to be difficult; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for July will continue to roll out. German July IFO survey came in better than expected; eurozone June M3 rose 9.2% y/y vs. 8.9% in May.

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A Tactical Update: Whither Goest The Dollar

2020-07-28

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2020-07-28

Our Fortress strategic asset allocation includes 5 distinct asset classes: The Fortress allocation has historically produced better risk-adjusted returns than the traditional 60% stocks/40% bonds allocation.

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US Stall? Only Half The Imagined “V” May Indicate One, Too

2020-07-27

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2020-07-27

IHS Markit US Composite, 2018-2020
These are not numbers that are consistent with a robust rebound. In fact, they don’t indicate very much of one at all. IHS Markit’s flash PMI’s for July 2020 instead look way too much like the sentiment indicators in Germany and Japan. Though they are now back near 50, both services and manufacturing, that doesn’t actually indicate what everyone seems to think it does.

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Introducing the “Everything Bubble” Sentiment-o-Meter

2020-07-26

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2020-07-26

Since human wetware remains stuck in OS1.01, we can predict a remarkable reversal. The "Everything Bubble" has been a sight to behold. With central banks providing trillions to the big players and margin debt enabling small punters to leverage up, the hot money rotation has been a real merry-go-round as one asset and sector after another is ignited by a massive flood of money seeking a quick return.

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Jeff Snider on Federal Reserve art ofJawboning markets about U.S. dollars Part 2 investing in gold

2020-07-25

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?? Subscribe here for more : ?http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZIFOCfVxLJexAKnSb2TWXg?sub_confirmation=1 ??http://www.ko-fi.com/aminray #markets #investing #trading #economy #money #currency #stocks #robinhood Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar...

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Jeff Snider on the Federal Reserve Jawboning

2020-07-25

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?? Subscribe here for more : ?http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZIFOCfVxLJexAKnSb2TWXg?sub_confirmation=1 ??https://www.patreon.com/Aminray #markets #investing #trading #economy #money #currency #stocks #robinhood Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar...

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All About The Eurodollar , Repo Markets, Gold and Volatility with Jeff Snider.

2020-07-25

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?? Subscribe here for more : ?http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZIFOCfVxLJexAKnSb2TWXg?sub_confirmation=1 ??https://www.patreon.com/Aminray #markets #investing #trading #economy #money #currency #stocks #robinhood Eurodollars are time deposits denominated in U.S. dollars at banks outside the United States, and thus are not under the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve. Consequently, such deposits are subject to much less regulation than similar...

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