Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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NFTs: are they worth the hype? | The Economist

2022-02-03

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In the past year a new trend in the crypto world has boomed: NFTs, or non-fungible tokens. They started as a way for digital artists to have ownership over their work but have transformed into a dizzying new multi-billion-dollar marketplace. Are they worth the hype? 00:00 - Are NFTs worth the hype? 01:38 - How to sell an NFT 03:24 - Where did NFTs come from? 04:51 - Why are NFTs so popular? 05:45 - NFTs in the artworld 07:04 - The risks in buying...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Are We There Yet?

2022-01-31

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2022-01-31

I’ll just get this out of the way right at the beginning. The question in the title of this post refers to the end of the ongoing stock market correction and the answer is likely no. There are no sure things in this business so it isn’t an unequivocal no, but based on history, the odds favor more weakness.

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FOMC Goes With Unemployment Rate While This Huge Number Happens To Far More Relevant Economic Data

2022-01-29

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2022-01-29

The first time I can consciously remember using the term landmine was probably here in February 2019. I had described the same process play out several times before, I had just never applied that term. There was all sorts of market chaos in the final two months of 2018, including a full-on stock market correction, believe it or not, leaving the inflation and recovery narrative in near complete tatters.

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After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet**

2022-01-28

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2022-01-28

It’s not hard to reason why there continues to be this conflict of interest (rates). On the one hand, impacting the short end of the yield curve, the unemployment rate has taken a tight grip on the FOMC’s limited imagination. The rate hikes are coming and the markets like all mainstream commentary agree that as it stands there’s nothing on the horizon to stop Jay Powell’s hawkishness.

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Keeping warm, without warming the planet | The Economist

2022-01-27

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Humans are cranking up their thermostats at the expense of the planet. With the majority of global heating still powered by dirty fuels, are there greener solutions that won't cost the earth? Read more: https://econ.st/3g3GNeq Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - Heating the planet with domestic heating 01:06 - South Africa’s energy supply 02:59 - What is a heat pump and how does it work? 05:58 - The first step to decarbonising heating is...

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Rückläufige US-Erdölvorräte lassen Ölpreise steigen

2022-01-27

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2022-01-27

Die Vereinigten Staaten weisen sinkende Ölreserven auf. Dies führt zu einem Druck auf die Preise. Trotz eines Anstiegs der Rohölvorräte im jüngsten EIA-Bericht sind die kommerziellen Erdölvorräte in den USA in den meisten Wochen der letzten anderthalb Jahre zurückgegangen und liegen unter dem saisonalen Durchschnitt der letzten fünf Jahre und sogar unter dem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt vor der Pandemie.

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Inflation Winners and Losers

2022-01-27

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2022-01-27

The clear winners in inflation are those who require little from global supply chains, the frugal, and those who own their own labor, skills and enterprises. As the case for systemic inflation builds, the question arises: who wins and who loses in an up-cycle of inflation? The general view is that inflation is bad for almost everyone, but this ignores the big winners in an inflationary cycle.

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The Hawks Circle Here, The Doves Win There

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

We’ve been here before, near exactly here. On this side of the Pacific Ocean, in the US particularly the situation was said to be just grand. The economy was responding nicely to QE’s 3 and 4 (yes, there were four of them by that point), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said in the middle of 2013 it was becoming more than enough, creating for him and the FOMC coveted breathing space so as to begin tapering both of those ongoing programs.A...

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Will you be eating insects soon? | The Economist

2022-01-25

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By 2050 there could be 10 billion human mouths to feed. Eating insects could help solve the global food-supply problem. Read more here: https://econ.st/3fTILxA Film supported by @Maersk 00:00 - 00:47 How to feed our growing population 00:47 - 03:23 The potential of insects 03:23 - 05:31 Eating cricket powder in Madagascar 05:31- 06:30 Madagascar's climate change famine 06:30 - 08:00 Cricket farming in Africa 08:00 - 11:30 Expanding insect...

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The Cult of Speculation Is a Cult of Doom

2022-01-25

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2022-01-25

Surely the Fed gods will affirm the cult's most revered articles of faith. But false gods eventually fail, even the Fed. Every once in awhile the zeitgeist sets up an either / or: either the zeitgeist is crazy or I'm crazy. (OK, let's agree I'm crazy; see, it's not that hard to find something to agree on, is it?)

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Weekly Market Pulse: Fear Makes A Comeback

2022-01-24

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2022-01-24

Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline.

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Good Time To Go Fish(er)ing Around The Yield Curve

2022-01-21

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2022-01-21

It should be as simple as it sounds. Lower LT UST yields, less growth and inflation. Thus, higher LT UST yields, more growth and inflation. Right? If nominal levels are all there is to it, then simplicity rules the interpretation. Visiting with George Gammon last week, he confessed to committing this sin of omission.

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China and Russia: MI6’s top concerns | The Economist

2022-01-20

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MI6 chief Richard Moore speaks to the “The Economist Asks” podcast about the world's biggest threats—from a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine to China’s increasing access to personal data 00:00 - 00:49 MI6 is stepping out of the shadows 00:49 - 02:55 Will Putin invade Ukraine? 02:55 - 03:49 China’s influence has grown 03:49 - 04:40 Our relationship with China 04:40 - 05:33 A new technological battleground 05:33 - 07:01 China’s data and...

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Weekly Market Pulse: A Very Contrarian View

2022-01-19

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2022-01-19

What is the consensus about the economy today? Will 2022 growth be better or worse than 2021? Actually, that probably isn’t the right question because the economy slowed significantly in the second half of 2021. The real question is whether growth will improve from that reduced pace.

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New technology: what do you have to fear? | The Economist

2022-01-18

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Managing the risks and rewards of emerging technologies is a tricky balancing act. How is it possible to maximise the upsides of innovation while minimising the potential downsides? Read more here: https://econ.st/327bXxU Film supported by @Mission Winnow 00:00 - 01:03 Innovation and regulation in technology 01:03 - 01:51 How to keep innovation moving 01:51 - 03:48 The rise of autonomous cars 03:48 - 05:40 Are autonomous cars safe? 05:40 -...

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Politics Is Dead, Here’s What Killed It

2022-01-18

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2022-01-18

Here's "politics" in America now: come with mega-millions or don't even bother to show up. Representational democracy--a.k.a. politics as a solution to social and economic problems--has passed away. It did not die a natural death. Politics developed a cancer very early in life (circa the early 1800s), caused by wealth outweighing public opinion.

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US CPI Reaches Seven On US Goods Prices, With Disinflation Setting In Everywhere Else (incl. US Services)

2022-01-16

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2022-01-16

How is that US Treasury rates out in the independent longer end of the yield curve have now “suffered” a seven percent CPI to go along with double taper and triple maybe quadruple (if the whispers are to be believed) rate hikes this year, yet have weathered all of that allegedly bond-busting brutality with barely a market fluctuation?

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The Real Revolution Is Underway But Nobody Recognizes It

2022-01-15

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2022-01-15

Revolutions have a funny characteristic: they're unpredictable. The general assumption is that revolutions are political. The revolution some foresee in the U.S. is the classic armed insurrection, or a coup or the fragmentation of the nation as states or regions declare their independence from the federal government.

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China’s Petroyuan, Uncle Sam’s Checkbook, The Fed’s Bank Reserves: Who Really Sits On King Dollar’s Throne? (trick question)

2022-01-14

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2022-01-14

A full part of the inflation hysteria, the first one, was the dollar’s looming crash. The currency was, too many claimed, on the verge of collapse by late 2017, heading downward and besieged on multiple fronts by economics and politics alike.

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How to make black lives matter more | The Economist

2022-01-13

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The shocking murder of George Floyd by a police officer in 2020 sparked a wave of protests around the world and prompted promises to address structural racism. What actions could actually make black lives better? Film supported by @Mishcon de Reya LLP 00:00 - The legacy of George Floyd 01:20 - How can police reform help? 06:30 - Reallocating police resources 09:10 - The school-to-prison pipeline 12:33 - Reducing school exclusions 16:15 - Moving...

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