Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 1]

2022-03-17

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2022-03-17

With the 7s10s already inverted, and the 5s today mere bps away, making a macro case for the distortion isn’t too difficult. Despite China’s “upside” economic data today, even the Chinese are talking more about their downside worries (shooting/hoping for “stability”) than strength. In the US or Europe, no matter the CPIs in either place there are cyclical (not just inventory) warning signs all over the place.

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Risk Accumulates Where No One Is Looking For It

2022-03-17

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2022-03-17

All this decay is so incremental that nobody thinks it possible that it could ever accumulate into a risk that threatens the entire system. The funny thing about risk is the risk that everyone sees isn't the risk that blows up the system. The mere fact that everyone is paying attention to the risk tends to defang it as everyone rushes to hedge or reduce the risk.

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China’s Loan Results Back The PBOC Going The Opposite Way From The Fed

2022-03-16

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2022-03-16

This week will almost certainly end up as a clash of competing interest rate policy views. Everyone knows about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming, the beginning of what is intended to be a determined inflation-fighting campaign for a US economy that American policymakers worry has been overheated.

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Weekly Market Pulse: Is This A Bear Market?

2022-03-16

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2022-03-16

I don’t know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don’t know what will happen in Ukraine. I don’t know how much what has already happened there – and what might – matters to the US and global economy. I don’t know if the Fed is making a mistake by (likely) hiking interest rates by an entire 1/4 of 1% this week.

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War in Ukraine: how could this end? | The Economist

2022-03-16

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As Russia continues the bombardment of Ukraine, peace talks falter and threats of escalation increase, our Economist experts discuss how the war could end. 00:00 - Introduction 00:37 - A Russian quagmire? 02:06 - Could Putin lose power? 03:38 - The biggest escalation risks 05:39 - A negotiated end to the war? Find all our coverage on the war in Ukraine: https://econ.st/3hHrkS5 The war in Ukraine, explained in maps: https://econ.st/3sOaCGN...

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SMART BOURSE – Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2022-03-15

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Lundi 14 mars 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Serf-Expression

2022-03-15

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2022-03-15

Eventually the "flock of timid and industrious animals" changes their minds about how much exploitation by the few is acceptable.

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Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries

2022-03-15

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2022-03-15

As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market wasn’t ready to fully price the downside risks which had already led to that worrisome curve shape (very flat). While all sorts of bad potential could be reasonably surmised, none of it seemed imminent or definite.

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Does the Fed control the dollar? with Joseph Wang & Jeff Snider

2022-03-14

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The Roundtable Insight with Charles Hugh Smith on The Great Reset Agenda

2022-03-13

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Here is the link to the article referenced in the podcast - http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2022/02/10/the-great-awakening-an-alternative-great-reset-based-on-the-principles-of-the-austrian-school-of-economics/

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How the IRS Taxes Your Retirement Income

2022-03-13

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2022-03-13

Oh, the day you can hang up your career and ease into that status you’ve been working toward most of your adult life, the place that brings a smile to your face, your happy place where you no longer answer to an employer, where you set your own schedule—that magical place called “Retirement.”

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Consumer Prices And The Historical Pain(s)

2022-03-12

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2022-03-12

The 1947-48 experience was truly painful, maybe even terrifying. The US and Europe had just come out of a decade when the worst deflationary consequences were so widespread that the period immediately following quickly erupted into the worst conflagration in human history.

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The Upside of a Crushing Recession

2022-03-11

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2022-03-11

Unbeknownst to those trembling in fear of a crushing recession, the crushing recession they fear is the only curative for a fatally distorted system which has lost touch with reality. Everyone looking at the inevitability of recession with alarm is forgetting the many upsides of recession, especially one that crushes all attempts to reverse it with the usual tricks.

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Jeff Snider Just Emailed Me About The Repo Market (Here’s What He Said)

2022-03-11

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Check out the Rebel Capitalist Live event June 24th - 26th!!

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War in Ukraine: whose side is China on? | The Economist

2022-03-10

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China won’t endorse Russia’s war in Ukraine, but it also won’t condemn it. Whose side is China really on? Our expert discusses China’s stance on the conflict 00:00 - China’s response to the war 00:58 - Did Putin warn Xi about the invasion? 01:47 - Whose side is China on? 02:56 - Why might China want war? 03:50 - What does Russia’s invasion mean for Taiwan? 05:20 - Could China help Russia win? 06:28 - What will China do if the invasion escalates?...

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So Much Fragile *Cannot* Be Random Deflationary Coincidences

2022-03-10

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2022-03-10

At first glance, or first exposure to this, there doesn’t seem to be any reason why all these so many pieces could be related. Outwardly, from the mainstream perspective, anyway, you’d think them random, and even if somehow correlated they’re supposed to be in the opposite way from what’s happened.

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If You Want to Build Back Better, Reshore Our Entire Supply Chain

2022-03-09

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2022-03-09

It is entirely accurate to say that the U.S. is addicted to waste and distant sources of essentials. The downside of dependency is in the air. The U.S. has allowed itself to become dependent on other nations for essentials, a policy that I view as an insanity fueled by greed. The problem with dependency is the cost can't be calculated until it's too late. Restoring independence is a massive, costly undertaking, but if you wait until the cost of...

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Malala: what Ukraine’s invasion means for girls’ education | The Economist

2022-03-08

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This year’s International Women’s Day is marked by thousands fleeing war in Ukraine. The Economist’s editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, meets Malala Yousafzai to discuss what world leaders can do to protect girls’ education in times of conflict. 00:00 - Who is Malala? 00:30 - Becoming a refugee 01:11 - The impact of conflict on civilians 02:51 - The gender gap in digital education 03:41 - Promoting girls’ education in Afghanistan 05:21 - How...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Oil Shock

2022-03-08

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2022-03-08

Crude oil prices rose over 25% last week and as I sit down to write this evening the overnight futures are up another 8% to around $125. Almost every other commodity on the planet rose in prices last week too, as did the dollar. Those two factors – rising dollar and rising commodity prices – mean the likelihood of recession in the coming year has risen significantly in just the last week.

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War in Ukraine: how far will Putin go? | The Economist

2022-03-08

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Vladimir Putin’s war against Ukraine is devastating the country and its people. How far will he go? Our experts discuss the threat of escalation, from the use of nuclear weapons to attacks beyond Ukraine. 00:00 - How far will Putin go? 00:32 - A war of escalation 01:34 - Nuclear weapons are on the table 02:44 - NATO vs Russia 04:10 - NATO is bound together by article 5 05:32 - What is going on in Putin’s head? 06:42 - What could the West offer...

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