Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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It Always Ends The Same Way: Crisis, Crash, Collapse

2021-06-24

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2021-06-24

Dysfunctional Markets
One of the most under-appreciated investment insights is courtesy of Mike Tyson: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." At this moment in history, the plan of most market participants is to place their full faith and trust in the status quo's ability to keep asset prices lofting ever higher, essentially forever.

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Sure Looks Like Supply Factors

2021-06-23

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2021-06-23

CME Random Length Lumber Futures, Jan 2020 - Jun 2021
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be inflationary overheating. Or not? As more time passes and the situation further evolves, the more these recent price deviations conform to the supply shock scenario rather than a truly robust economy showing no signs of slowing down.

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

Weekly Market Pulse on June 21, where we look at significant things from last week's events with Joe Calhoun.

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Front-Running the Crash

2021-06-21

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2021-06-21

We have a fine-sounding word for running with the herd: momentum. When the herd is running, those who buy what the herd is buying and sell what the herd is selling are trading momentum, which sounds so much more professional and high-brow than the noisy, dusty image of large mammals (and their trading machines) mindlessly running with the herd.

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Did covid-19 leak from a Chinese lab? | The Economist

2021-06-18

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For most of 2020 the theory that covid-19 leaked from a Chinese lab was dismissed as unlikely. In the past few months it has gained currency. Our experts explain why. Read more here: https://econ.st/3gzOVnV 00:00 - Where did covid-19 come from? 00:44 - What evidence is there? 02:06 - Why was the lab-leak theory dismissed? 03:23 - Could the lab leak have been deliberate? 04:07 - Could covid-19 be man made? 05:51 - How are the origins being...

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The FOMC Accidentally Exposes Itself (Reverse Repo-style)

2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

UST Yield Curve, Mar 2021 - Jun 2021
Initially, the dots got all the attention. Though these things are beyond hopeless, the media needs them to write up its account of a more fruitful monetary policy outcome because markets continue to discount that entirely.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-06-17

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Jeudi 17 juin 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Copper Corroding PPI

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

Copper Futers, Continuous Frn Month, Jan 2002 - May 2021
Yesterday, lumber. Today, copper. The “doctor” has been in reverse for better than two months now, with trading in the current session pounding the commodity to a new multi-month low. Down almost $0.19 for the day, an unusual and eye-opening loss, this brings the cumulative decline to 9.2% since the peak way back on May 11.

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Another Round of Transitory: US Retail Sales & (revised) IP

2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

U.S. Retail Sales, Jan 2016 - May 2021
Same stuff, different month. We can basically reprint both what was described yesterday about supply curves not keeping up with exaggerated demand as well as the past two months of commentary on Retail Sales plus Industrial Production each for the US. Quite on the nose, US demand for goods, anyway, is eroding if still artificially very high.

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Kiss The Old Normal Goodbye and Embrace The New Normal -Charles Hugh Smith

2021-06-15

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The “old” Normal was fun, but how fun was it really. The commute was a killer and took its toll on the family. We were all working harder and making less. Time was at a premium and so was spending time with your family. The focus on consumption was all enveloping. We now defend on many other countries for vital resources. Off-shoring had many destructive impacts upon our economy and your health. Unhealthy food is highly profitable. Now we can start...

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Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-06-15

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2021-06-15

Weekly Market Pulse with Alhambra Investments, interview with Joe Calhoun.

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Seven Things Nobody Talks About that Will Eventually Matter–A Lot

2021-06-14

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2021-06-14

Diminishing Returns
Perhaps it shouldn't surprise us that everything that will eventually matter is ignored until it does matter--but by then it's too late. Here's a short list to start the discussion: 1. The Federal Reserve has transformed the American populace into a nation of dismayingly over-confident gamblers.

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Crypto: will the bitcoin dream succeed? | The Economist

2021-06-12

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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies set out to upend the financial order and replace conventional money. Bitcoin has certainly disrupted the global financial system, but can it ever live up to the hype? Read our latest report on cryptocurrency: https://econ.st/3wnYfRr Find The Economist’s latest finance and economics coverage: https://econ.st/3pCKsnp Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage:...

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-06-10

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Jeudi 10 juin 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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The Inflation Emotion(s)

2021-06-10

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2021-06-10

The Real GDP Problem, Jan 1988 - 2021
Inflation is more than just any old touchy subject in an age overflowing with crude, visceral debates up and down the spectrum reaching into every corner of life. It is about life itself, and not just quality. When the prices of the goods (or services) you absolutely depend upon go up, your entire world becomes that much more difficult.

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The Sources of Rip-Your-Face-Off Inflation Few Dare Discuss

2021-06-09

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2021-06-09

Job Openings, 2006 - 2021
Inflation will be transitory, blah-blah-blah--I beg to differ, for these reasons. There are numerous structural sources of inflation, which I define as prices rise while the quality and quantity of goods and services remain the same or diminish.

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Post-Pandemic Metamorphosis: Never Going Back

2021-06-07

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2021-06-07

People caught on that the returns on the frenzied hamster wheel of "normal" have been diminishing for decades, but everyone was too busy to notice. The superficial "return to normal" narrative focuses solely on first order effects: now that people can dispense with masks and social distancing, they are resuming their pre-pandemic spending orgy with a vengeance, which augurs great profits for Corporate America and higher tax revenues.

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Can Brazil Survive Bolsonaro? | The Economist

2021-06-04

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Since coming to power President Jair Bolsonaro has shaken democracy, accelerated deforestation in the Amazon and played down the danger of the coronavirus pandemic, with calamitous results. Could Brazil survive another four years of his leadership? Read the special report here: https://econ.st/3fPue6S Find all of our coverage of the Americas: https://econ.st/3g4gLXZ Read all of coronavirus coverage here: https://econ.st/3vMo6BU How Jair...

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-06-03

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Jeudi 3 juin 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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(Not) Living Large on Social Security

2021-06-03

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2021-06-03

Social Security, 1960 - 2020
How many retired workers are getting less than $1,000 per month in Social Security benefits? The question came up and I was curious enough to find the answer, and download the data into an Excel spreadsheet which I saved as a

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