Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Oil Prices: The Center Of The Inflation Debate

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Real GDP in the Eurodollar Era 1993-2017
The mainstream media is about to be presented with another (small) gift. In its quest to discredit populism, the condition of inflation has become paramount for largely the right reasons (accidents do happen). In the context of the macro economy of 2017, inflation isn’t really about consumer prices except as a broad gauge of hidden monetary conditions.

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The Real Rate of Inflation | Charles Hugh Smith

2017-08-09

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Listen to the full interview at the Solari Report – solari.com “I can track the real-world inflation of the Burrito Index with great accuracy: the cost of a regular burrito from our local taco truck has gone up from $2.50 in 2001 to $5 in 2010 to $6.50 in 2016. That’s a $160% increase since … Continue reading...

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Colombo, Sri Lanka: An Insiders Guide | The Economist

2017-08-09

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Colombo, an Insiders guide takes you to discover the hidden secrets of the city by asking the locals. Here are some top tips for experiencing Sri Lanka’s capital, Colombo. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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China Exports, China Imports: Textbook

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

China Exports 2013-2017
China’s export growth disappointed in July, only we don’t really know by how much. According to that country’s Customs Bureau, exports last month were 7.2% above (in US$ terms) exports in July 2016. That’s down from 11.3% growth in June, which as usual had been taken in the mainstream as evidence of “strong” or “robust” global demand.

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Is Another Oil Head-Fake Brewing?

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

Crude Oil, Apr 2016 - Jul 2017
Over the past decade I've addressed what I call Head-Fakes in the cost of oil/fossil fuel: even though we know the cost of extracting and processing oil will rise over time as the easy-to-get oil is depleted, oil occasionally plummets to such low prices that we're fooled into thinking it will remain cheap for a long time to come.

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Will robots replace human workers? | The Economist

2017-08-07

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Demand for industrial robots is increasing, so we asked different people to guess how many jobs are held by robots, not humans. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead

2017-08-07

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2017-08-07

EM FX appears to be rolling over (see our recent piece “Is EM FX Finally Turning?”). Technical indicators are stretched as many EM currencies bump up against strong resistance levels.  Strong US jobs data is bringing Fed tightening back into focus.  We think ZAR could be shaping up to be the canary in a coalmine. It was -3% vs. USD last week and by far the worst in EM.

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U.S. Treasuries: Not Really Wrong On Bonds

2017-08-06

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2017-08-06

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US Treasury market, and often differences can be striking. The most prominent example was, of course, October 15, 2014.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-08-05

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2017-08-05

The Reserve Bank of India started an easing cycle by cutting all policy rates 25 bp. Bank Indonesia has tilted more dovish after signaling earlier this year that the easing cycle was over. Czech National Bank became the first in Europe to hike. Political risk is rising in Israel. President Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill. Nigeria is trying to unify its system of multiple exchange rates.

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Why We’re So Risk-Averse: “We Can’t Take That Chance”

2017-08-05

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2017-08-05

Debt Cost Of Living, 1959 - 2016
If our faith in the future and our resilience is near-zero, then we can't take any chances. You've probably noticed how risk-averse Hollywood has become: the big summer movies are all extensions of existing franchises--mixing up the superheroes in new combinations, or remaking hit films from the past--all safe bets.

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The folly of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s policies, as seen by Kal | The Economist

2017-08-04

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In Venezuela, a rigged election, months of violent protests and a power hungry leader created a dangerous cocktail. KAL’s cartoon commentary Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Inflation Is Not About Consumer Prices

2017-08-04

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2017-08-04

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1993 - 2017
I suspect President Trump has been told that markets don’t like radical changes. If there is one thing that any elected official is afraid of, it’s the internet flooded with reports of grave financial instability. We need only go back a year to find otherwise confident authorities suddenly reassessing their whole outlook.

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13 April 2017 Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalyp

2017-08-04

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While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has …

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Charles Hugh Smith On Where The Jobs Are

2017-08-02

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Click here for the full summary and slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/08/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-where-the-jobs-are/

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Extending The Cycle

2017-08-01

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2017-08-01

This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear.

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Rwanda’s eternal president, Paul Kagame | The Economist

2017-07-31

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Under President Paul Kagame Rwanda has gone from carnage to calm. So why are his people terrified of him? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-07-31

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2017-07-31

EM FX was mixed last week, as markets await fresh drivers. Jobs report this Friday could provide greater clarity with regards to Fed policy. BOE and RBA meet but aren’t expected to change policy. Data is likely to reinforce the notion that inflation remains low in EM, allowing those central banks to remain dovish. Czech National Bank is the main exception, as it may start the tightening cycle this week.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-07-29

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2017-07-29

Indonesia’s parliament approved a revised budget for 2017 that sees a wider deficit. Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ousted Prime Minister Sharif. Polish President Duda vetoed portions of the judicial reform bill submitted by the Law and Justice party.

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Sergei Shnurov: Rocking the Kremlin | The Economist

2017-07-27

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Sergei Shnurov, described as Russia’s most popular rock star, with a fanbase to match Putin. Meet Sergei Shnurov Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist …

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The Two Charts That Dictate the Future of the Economy

2017-07-27

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2017-07-27

US Average Household Income, 1965 - 2017
The stock market, bond yields and statistical measures of the economy can be gamed, manipulated and massaged by authorities, but the real economy cannot. This is espcially true for the core drivers of the economy, real (adjusted for inflation) household income and real disposable household income, i.e. the real income remaining after debt service (interest and principal), rent, healthcare co-payments and insurance and other essential living expenses.

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