Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Anchoring Globally Synchronized Growth, Or We Gave Up Long Ago?

2018-05-24

China Fixed Asset Investment, Apr 2012 - 2018

January was the last month in which China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) specifically mentioned Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) of state holding enterprises (or SOE’s). For the month of December 2017, the NBS reported accumulated growth (meaning for all of 2017) in this channel of 10.1%. Through FAI of SOE’s, Chinese authorities in early 2016 had panicked themselves into unleashing considerable “stimulus.”

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The Next Recession Will Be Devastatingly Non-Linear

2018-05-23

by Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-23

All Sector Debt Securities and Loans, 1960 - 2018

The acceleration of non-linear consequences will surprise the brainwashed, loving-their-servitude mainstream media. Linear correlations are intuitive: if GDP declines 2% in the next recession, and employment declines 2%, we get it: the scale and size of the decline aligns. In a linear correlation, we'd expect sales to drop by about 2%, businesses closing their doors to increase by about 2%, profits to notch down by about 2%, lending contracts by...

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RMR: Special Guest – Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds (05/22/2018)

2018-05-22

by Charles Hugh Smith

Charles Hugh Smith, Of Two Minds Blog joins “V” to discuss recent articles on his website, how blockchain and cryptocurrency could free the world of the current financial controllers and balance the powers of society. We are political scientists, editorial engineers, and radio show developers drawn together by a shared vision of bringing Alternative news …

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El Salvador’s violent gang members are finding God in prison | The Economist

2018-05-22

by The Economist

18th Street and MS-13 gangs terrorise El Salvador, making it one of the most deadly places on earth. Leaving the gang is not easy—former gangsters face rejection from society and the threat of violence from other gang members and the police. Can religion provide a safe way out? Click here to subscribe to The Economist …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-05-22

by Win Thin

2018-05-22

EM FX ended Friday on a weak note and extended the slide. For the week as a whole, the best EM performers were PHP, TWD, and SGD while the worst were ARS, ZAR, and TRY. With US rates continuing to move higher, we believe selling pressures on EM FX will remain in play this week. Our recently updated EM Vulnerability Table supports our view that divergences within EM will remain.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Growth Expectations Break Out?

2018-05-22

by Marcelo Perez

2018-05-22

There are a lot of reasons why interest rates may have risen recently. The federal government is expected to post a larger deficit this year – and in future years – due to the tax cuts. Further exacerbating those concerns is the ongoing shrinkage of the Fed’s balance sheet. Increased supply and potentially decreased demand is not a recipe for higher prices. In addition, there is some fear that the ongoing trade disputes may impact foreign demand...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-21

by Win Thin

2018-05-21

Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem.

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Charles Hugh Smith On The Intensifying Pension Crisis

2018-05-21

by Charles Hugh Smith

Click here for full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2018/05/20/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-intensifying-pension-crisis

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And Now For Something Completely Different

2018-05-20

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-05-20

Japan Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 2008 - 2018

Back in February, Japan’s Cabinet Office reported that Real GDP in Japan had grown in Q4 2017 for the eighth consecutive quarter. It was the longest streak of non-negative GDP since the 1980’s. Predictably, this was hailed as some significant achievement, a true masterstroke of courage and perseverance. It was taken as a sign that Abenomics and QQE was finally working (never mind the four years).

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Tax Cuts And (Less) Spending

2018-05-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-05-19

After being rumored and talked about for over a year, at the end of last year the tax cuts were finally delivered. The idea had captured much market attention during that often anxious period of political flirtation. Prices would rise or fall by turn based on whether or not it seemed a realistic possibility.

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U.S. Healthcare Isn’t Broken–It’s Fixed

2018-05-18

by Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-18

If you want to understand why the U.S. healthcare system is bankrupt, financially, morally and politically, then start with this representative anecdote from a U.S. physician. I received this report from correspondent J.F. on the topic of direct advertising of pharmaceutical products to the public (patients).

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When thoughts control machines | The Economist

2018-05-17

by The Economist

Efforts to connect human brains to computers have taken big leaps forward in recent years. Melding our minds with machines could provide the biggest single upgrade to human intelligence since our species evolved. But are we ready? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2Fzn4ON Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-05-17

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-05-17

The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it was a mistake. Stocks went from overbought to more overbought and I missed the rally to all time highs in January.

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All The World’s A (Imagined) Labor Shortage

2018-05-16

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-05-16

Last year’s infatuation with globally synchronized growth was at least understandable. From a certain, narrow point of view, Europe’s economy had accelerated. So, too, it seemed later in the year for the US economy. The Bank of Japan was actually talking about ending QQE with inflation in sight, and the PBOC was purportedly tightening as China’s economy appeared to many ready for its rebound.

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Has migration gone too far? | The Economist

2018-05-15

by The Economist

Migrants from the EU into Britian are more likely to be paying taxes than claiming benefits. So why do some people think migration is harmful, and how should this divisive issue be dealt with? The Economist’s Emma Hogan offers her thoughts. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2GgNrtt Daily Watch: mind-stretching short …

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Market Complacency / Euphoria

2018-05-15

by Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-15

CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, Dec 2017 - May 2018

Fortunately for Bulls, none of this matters. A relatively reliable measure of complacency/euphoria in the stock market just hit levels last seen in late January, just before stocks reversed in a massive meltdown, surprising all the complacent/euphoric Bulls. The measure is the put-call ratio in equities. Since this time is different, and the market is guaranteed to roar to new all-time highs, we can ignore this (of course).

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH One More Time At The End of an Economic Cycle Things Will Fall Apart

2018-05-15

by Charles Hugh Smith

All our reports and Daily Alert News are backed up by source links. We work very hard to bring you the facts and We research everything before presenting the report. Subscribe for Latest on Financial Crisis, Oil Price, Global Economic Collapse, Dollar Collapse, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Global Reset, New World Order, Economic Collapse, Economic News, …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-05-14

by Win Thin

2018-05-14

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – One More Time At The End of an Economic Cycle, Things Will Fall Apart

2018-05-13

by Charles Hugh Smith

SUBSCRIBE for Latest on FINANCIAL CRISIS / OIL PRICE / PETROL/ GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DOLLAR COLLAPSE / GOLD / SILVER / BITCOIN / ETHERIUM / CRYPTOCURRENCY / LITECOIN /FINANCIAL CRASH / GLOBAL RESET / NEW WORLD ORDER / ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DAVOS 2018

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How Safe Are We? Our Blindness to Systemic Dangers

2018-05-13

by Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-13

United States Drug Overdose Deaths, 2000 - 2018

How do we explain our obsession with relatively low risk dangers and our collective blindness to manufactured/marketed scourges that kill tens of thousands of people annually? If you've bought a new vehicle recently, you may have noticed some "safety features" that strike many as Nanny State over-reach. You can't change radio stations, for example, if the vehicle is in reverse.

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