Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Myanmar’s persecuted Rohingya refugees | The Economist

2017-09-08

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Myanmar’s Rohingya Muslims have been described as the most persecuted minority on Earth. For years, Myanmar has not recognised them as citizens. Now the army is burning their villages, killing them and driving the survivors out of the country. Myanmar’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, ignores their plight. Does she deserve to keep her Nobel …

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Toward The Housing Bubble, Or Great Depression?

2017-09-08

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2017-09-08

US Personal Savings Rate, Jan 2000 - 2017
During the middle 2000’s, one more curious economic extreme presented itself in an otherwise ocean of extremes. Though economists were still thinking about the Great “Moderation”, the trend for the Personal Savings Rate was anything but moderate, indicated a distinct lack of modesty on the part of consumers. In early 2006, the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculated that the rate had been negative for all of 2005. It was the first time in seventy...

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Bitcoin, Sour Grapes and the Institutional Herd

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

One Year Chart of Bitcoin, Oct 2016 - Jul 2017
The point is institutional ownership of bitcoin is in the very early stages. If I had a bitcoin for every time some pundit declared bitcoin is a bubble, I'd be a billionaire. There are three problems with opining that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are bubblicious:

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2017 Is Two-Thirds Done And Still No Payroll Pickup

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

Establishment Survey, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
The payroll report for August 2017 thoroughly disappointed. The monthly change for the headline Establishment Survey was just +156k. The BLS also revised lower the headline estimate in each of the previous two months, estimating for July a gain of only +189k. The 6-month average, which matters more given the noisiness of the statistic, is just +160k or about the same as when the Federal Reserve contemplated starting a third round of QE back in 2012.

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Religion, faith and the role they play today | The Economist

2017-09-06

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Religion and faith are an integral part of people’s lives worldwide. But in many countries the number of people who believe in God is in decline. We examine the changing role of religion around the world Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The majority of Americans believe in God. But it’s …

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North Korea and America’s game of chicken | The Economist

2017-09-05

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North Korea and America have a relationship that is becoming increasingly tense. After North Korea’s most powerful nuclear test, our cartoonist Kal gives his impression of the stand-off between their two leaders: Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the …

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Proving Q2 GDP The Anomaly, Incomes Yet Again Fail To Accelerate

2017-09-05

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2017-09-05

Real Personal Income excl. Transfer Receipts 2014 - 2017
One day after reporting a slightly better number for Q2 GDP, the BEA reports today that there is little reason to suspect it was anything more or lasting. The data for Personal Income and Spending shows that the dominant condition since 2012 remains in effect – “good” quarters, or whatever passes for one these days, are the anomaly. There still is no meaningful rebound in income.

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The Two Parts of Bubbles

2017-09-04

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2017-09-04

Profits & Valuations 1949-1999
What makes a stock bubble is really two parts. Most people might think those two parts are money and mania, but actually money supply plays no direct role. Perceptions about money do, even if mistaken as to what really takes place monetarily from time to time. In fact, for a bubble that would make sense; people are betting in stocks on one monetary view that isn’t real, and therefore prices don’t match what’s really going on.

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Why Wages Have Lost Ground in the 21st Century

2017-09-03

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2017-09-03

Ever-Widening Wage Gap, 1973 - 2015
One of the enduring mysteries for conventional economists is why wages aren't rising for the bottom 95% even as unemployment is low and hiring remains robust. According to classical economics, the limited supply of available workers combined with strong demand for workers should push wages higher.

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Jim Rogers 2017 ✪ GoldSeek Radio SEPT 2, 2017 CHARLES HUGH SMITH & JIM ROGERS

2017-09-02

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Jim Rogers 2017 ✪ GoldSeek Radio SEPT 2, 2017 CHARLES HUGH SMITH & JIM ROGERS #CLIFHIGH #CLIFHIGH2017 #CLIFHIGHTHISWEEK #CLIFHIGHNEW #CLIFHIGHTODAY #CLIFHIGHBITCOIN #CLIFHIGHWILLEND #CLIFHIGHREVIEWS #JIMROGERS #JIMROGERS2017 #JIMROGERSTHISWEEK #JIMROGERSNEW #ECONOMIST #FINANCIAL #JIMROGERSTODAY #JIMROGERSONBITCOIN Jim Rogers This Week: https://goo.gl/4iebdy Jim Willie 2017 Reviews: https://goo.gl/4iebdy Subcribers For Chanel:...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-09-02

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2017-09-02

India Prime Minister Modi has started a cabinet shuffle. Freeport McMorAn ceded control of the world’s second largest copper mine to the Indonesian government. Central Bank of Russia took over Bank Otkritie, once Russia’s largest private bank. Kenya’s top court nullified last month’s presidential election. Fitch cut Qatar’s rating by one notch to AA- with negative outlook.

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Moscow Rules (for ‘dollars’)

2017-09-02

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2017-09-02

China & 'Dollars', Jan 2005 - 2017
In Ian Fleming’s 1959 spy novel Goldfinger, he makes mention of the Moscow Rules. These were rules-of-thumb for clandestine agents working during the Cold War in the Soviet capital, a notoriously difficult assignment. Among the quips included in the catalog were, “everyone is potentially under opposition control” and “do not harass the opposition.” Fleming’s book added another, “Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy...

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Corruption in Brazil: the scam that put politicians behind bars | The Economist

2017-09-01

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Brazilian politicians and business leaders are heavily involved in what might be the world’s biggest corruption scandal. An investigation that started in a Brazilian car wash has spread to 16 countries, embroiled more than 100 politicians and business leaders and put billionaires behind bars. But there is a silver lining to the chaos Click here …

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Jeffrey Snider Evolution of Eurodollars, Money as interbank liabilities

2017-09-01

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Jeffrey Snider: Eurodollar University Part 1 —————— Erik Townsend welcomes back Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss: — How Dollar .

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Deja Vu

2017-09-01

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2017-09-01

Central Bank Rate Decomposition
According to orthodox theory, if interest rates are falling because of term premiums then that equates to stimulus. Term premiums are what economists have invented so as to undertake Fisherian decomposition of interest rates (so that they can try to understand the bond market; as you might guess it doesn’t work any better). It is, they claim, the additional premium a bond investor demands so as to hold a security that much longer (more return to...

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Currency Risk That Isn’t About Exchange Values (Eurodollar University)

2017-08-31

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2017-08-31

Eurodollar University
This week the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release updated estimates for Q2 GDP as well as Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Personal Incomes for July. Accompanying those latter two accounts is the currently preferred inflation standard for the US economy. The PCE Deflator finally hit 2% and in two consecutive months, after revisions, earlier this year.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Don’t Underestimate Gridlock

2017-08-30

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2017-08-30

Bi-weekly
The economic reports released since the last update were slightly more upbeat than the previous period. The economic surprises have largely been on the positive side but there were some major disappointments as well. The economy has been doing this for several years now, one part of the economy waxing while another wanes and the overall trajectory not much changed. Indeed, the broad Chicago Fed National Activity index probably says it all, coming...

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Why is Mecca having an $80bn makeover? | The Economist

2017-08-30

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Saudi Arabia is investing billions of dollars remodeling Mecca, home of Islam’s holiest site—the Kaaba. Its plans include building the world’s largest hotel. The aim is to double Mecca’s capacity to host worshippers, to nearly seven million, by 2040. The redevelopment has destroyed scores of old shrines. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

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The 5 Steps to World Domination

2017-08-29

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2017-08-29

Wealth Pyramid 2015
You don't need an army to achieve World Domination; all you need is enough cheap credit to buy up everything that generates the highest value and/or income.

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Emerging Market: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-08-28

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2017-08-28

EM FX ended last week on a strong note, buoyed by perceived dovishness from Yellen at the Jackson Hole symposium. However, US jobs data this Friday could test the market’s convictions. Within EM, data are likely to support our view that EM central banks can retain their largely dovish posture into 2018.

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