Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Inflation Correlations and China’s Brief, Disappointing Porcine Nightmare

2018-01-14

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2018-01-14

China Price Stability, Jun 2014 - Dec 2017
Two years ago, China was gripped by what was described as an epic pig problem. For most Chinese people, pork is a main staple so rapidly rising pig prices could have presented a serious challenge to an economy already at that time besieged by massive negative forces. It was another headache officials in that country really didn’t need.

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Charles Hugh Smith WARNS: Crash Is Coming Control Fraud Is the Core of our Political Syste

2018-01-14

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My advice is this: Settle! That’s right. Don’t worry about passion or intense connection. Don’t nix a guy based on his annoying habit of yelling Bravo! in theaters. Overlook his halitosis. Spread the word about PropellerAds and earn money! YouTube Tips and Triks to make real dollers: The Best Portable Bluetooth Speaker (.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-01-13

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2018-01-13

China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) disputed press reports that it was slowing or halting purchases of US Treasury bonds. Korean officials warned that it will take stern steps to prevent one-sided currency moves. Bulgaria is talking “intensively” with the ECB and other EU representatives about entering the Exchange Rate Mechanism by mid-year.

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MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doome

2018-01-13

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MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doomed. Thank you for listening. Follow us on . Thank you for listening. Follow us on . MUST LISTEN Charles Hugh Smith Can Trump pull a Rabbit out of a Hat or is US Economy Doomed. ALERT! …

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The Conspicuous Rush To Import

2018-01-12

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2018-01-12

US Trade Balance, Jan 2014 - 2018
According to the Census Bureau, US companies have been importing foreign goods at a relentless pace. In estimates released last week, seasonally-adjusted US imports jumped to $204 billion in November 2017. That’s a record high finally surpassing the $200 billion mark for the first time, as well as the peaks for both 2014 and 2007.

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Trump in two minutes | The Economist

2018-01-11

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President Donald Trump has spent one year in office. But what exactly has he achieved? Here’s a two-minute snapshot of his presidency so far. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2D5Gxte Since coming to power Mr Trump has tweeted over two thousand times. Often insulting people and bragging with a liberal use …

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Yes, But at What Cost?

2018-01-11

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2018-01-11

Federal Debt: Total Public Debt, 1970 - 2017
This is how our entire status quo maintains the illusion of normalcy: by avoiding a full accounting of the costs. The economy's going great--but at what cost? "Normalcy" has been restored, but at what cost? Profits are soaring, but at what cost? Our pain is being reduced--but at what cost? The status quo delights in celebrating gains, but the costs required to generate those gains are ignored for one simple reason: the costs exceed the gains by a...

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The Reluctant Labor Force Is Reluctant For A Reason (and it’s not booming growth)

2018-01-10

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2018-01-10

Labor Market Growth Rates, 1968 - 2017
In 2017, the BLS estimates that just 861k Americans were added to the official labor force, the denominator, of course, for the unemployment rate. That’s out of an increase of 1.4 million in the Civilian Non-Institutional Population, the overall prospective pool of workers. Both of those rises were about half the rate experienced in 2016.

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How to bring down a dictator | The Economist

2018-01-08

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North Korea’s dictator Kim Jong Un celebrates his birthday today. How can he–and leaders like him–be brought down by non-violent action? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2CTZrn6 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://econ.st/2CTRKx8 Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-01-08

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2018-01-08

EM FX was mostly firmer last week, but ended on a mixed note Friday. Best performers on the week for COP, MXN, and BRL while the worst were ARS, PHP, and CNY. We continue to warn investors against blindly buying into this broad-based EM rally, as we believe divergences will once again assert themselves in the coming weeks.

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The Great Risk of So Many Dinosaurs

2018-01-07

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2018-01-07

UST Central Curve, Jan 2007 - Dec 2017
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) was established a long time ago in the maelstrom of World War II budgetary as well as wartime conflagration. That made sense. To fight all over the world, the government required creative help in figuring out how to sell an amount of bonds it hadn’t needed (in proportional terms) since the Civil War. A twenty-person committee made up of money dealer bank professionals and leaders was one of the few...

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-01-06

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2018-01-06

Tensions on the Korean peninsula appear to be easing. Relations between Pakistan and the US have worsened. The Philippine central bank is tilting more hawkish. The ANC may consider removing Zuma from the presidency at the January 10 meeting of its National Executive Committee. Turkish banker Atilla was convicted of helping Iran evade US financial sanctions.

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Why the Financial System Will Break: You Can’t “Normalize” Markets that Depend on Extreme Monetary Stimulus

2018-01-06

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2018-01-06

Monthly Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, ECB asset purchases, 2008 - 2017
Central banks are now trapped. In a nutshell, central banks are promising to "normalize" their monetary policy extremes in 2018. Nice, but there's a problem: you can't "normalize" markets that are now entirely dependent on extremes of monetary stimulus. Attempts to "normalize" will break the markets and the financial system. Let's start with the core dynamic of the global economy and nosebleed-valuation markets: credit.

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Central Banks Have Manipulated The Markets Which Will Ultimately Crash Charles Hugh Smith

2018-01-05

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Thanks for ing. Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds Books: Get a Job, Build a Real Career. Why. Thanks for ing. Central Banks Have Manipulated The Markets Which Will Ultimately Crash Charles Hugh Smith ———————————- $ Help Finance News reach 1000 subscribers: Thanks for ing. Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-01-05

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2018-01-05

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

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Industrial production: The Chinese Appear To Be Rushed

2018-01-04

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2018-01-04

All China's Dollars, Aug 2016 - Jan 2018
While the Western world was off for Christmas and New Year’s, the Chinese appeared to have taken advantage of what was a pretty clear buildup of “dollars” in Hong Kong. Going back to early November, HKD had resumed its downward trend indicative of (strained) funding moving again in that direction (if it was more normal funding, HKD wouldn’t move let alone as much as it has). China’s currency, however, was curiously restrained during that...

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Housing Market Accelerates

2018-01-03

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2018-01-03

The economy ended 2017 with current growth just slightly above trend. In general the reports of the last two weeks of the year were pretty good with housing a standout performer going into the new year. We are still trying to get past the impact – positive and negative – from the hurricanes a few months ago though so it is probably prudent to wait for more evidence before making any definitive pronouncements about the economy.

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California’s recreational cannabis legalisation | The Economist

2018-01-02

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Cannabis can now be sold legally for recreational use in California. The change in law in the most populous American state has the potential to make marijuana go mainstream. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2lI31px Could California make cannabis go mainstream? California is not the first American state to legalise cannabis …

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The Hidden-in-Plain-Sight Mechanism of the Super-Wealthy: Money-Laundering 2.0

2018-01-02

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2018-01-02

Fruit of Financialization: Soaring Income Inequality - 1980 - 2017
Financial and political power are two sides of one coin. We all know the rich are getting richer, and the super-rich are getting super-richer. This reality is illustrated in the chart of income gains, the vast majority of which have flowed to the top .01%--not the top 1%, or the top .1% -- to the very tippy top of the wealth-power pyramid.

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Should three-parent families be legally recognised? | The Economist

2018-01-01

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What does a modern family look like? The Economist’s Matt Steinglass travels to the Netherlands where multiple-parent families–with up to four parents–could be recognised by law. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2B3k8sA What does a modern family look like? The Netherlands could become the first country in the world to allow …

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