Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

2018-06-12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a roller coaster week for some of the more vulnerable currencies. We expect continued efforts by EM policymakers to inject some stability into the markets. However, we believe the underlying dollar rally remains intact. Central bank meetings in the US, eurozone, and Japan this week are likely to drive home that point.

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Brent’s Back In A Big Way, Still ‘Something’ Missing

2018-06-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-06-12

The concept of bank reserves grew from the desire to avoid the periodic bank runs that plagued Western financial systems. As noted in detail starting here, the question had always been how much cash in a vault was enough? Governments around the world decided to impose a minimum requirement, both as a matter of sanctioned safety and also to reassure the public about a particular bank’s status.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-06-11

2018-06-11

The Reserve Bank of India hiked rates for the first time since 2014. Malaysia’s central bank governor resigned. Czech central bank tilted more hawkish. Russia central bank tilted more dovish. Argentina got a $50 bln standby program from the IMF.

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The Three Crises That Will Synchronize a Global Meltdown by 2025

2018-06-09

2018-06-09

We're going to get a synchronized global dynamic, but it won't be "growth" and stability, it will be DeGrowth and instability. To understand the synchronized global meltdown that is on tap for the 2021-2025 period, we must first stipulate the relationship of "money" to energy:"money" is nothing more than a claim on future energy. If there's no energy available to fuel the global economy, "money" will have little value.

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US Trade Settles Down Again

2018-06-08

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2018-06-08

U.S. Trade Trade Balance, Import, Export, Jan 2014 - May 2018

US trade is further leveling off after several months of artificial intrusions. On the import side, in particular, first was a very large and obvious boost following last year’s big hurricanes along the Gulf Coast. Starting in September 2017, for four months the value of imported goods jumped by an enormous 8.3% (revised, seasonally-adjusted). Most of the bump related to consumer and capital goods.

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Can technology save the rarest creatures on the planet? | The Economist

2018-06-07

A “Facebook for fish” is being used to try and save the critically-endangered Giant Sea Bass. This is just one of the pioneering experiments being carried out by marine biologist, Douglas McCauley, in his mission to protect ocean life. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xOgV2D For more from Economist Films visit: …

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Does Anyone Else See a Giant Bear Flag in the S&P 500?

2018-06-07

2018-06-07

We all know the game is rigged, but strange things occasionally upset the "easy money bet." "Reality" is in the eye of the beholder, especially when it comes to technical analysis and economic tea leaves.

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Can a cure for diabetes be found through surgery? | The Economist

2018-06-06

Diabetes is the fastest growing health crisis of our time. Could a common surgical procedure bolster hopes of finding a cure? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2M2143H Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2M1rxOZ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: As Good As It Gets?

2018-06-06

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-06-06

In the last update I wondered if growth expectations – and growth – were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a new higher level of growth. Or maybe not.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-06-05

2018-06-05

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review – VIDEO

2018-06-04

by Marcelo Perez

2018-06-04

Interview with Joe Calhoun about BiWeekly Economic Review 01/06/2018.

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Burrito Index Update: Burrito Cost Triples, Official Inflation Up 43 percent from 2001

2018-06-02

2018-06-02

Welcome to debt-serfdom, the only possible output of the soaring cost of living. Long-time readers may recall the Burrito Index, my real-world measure of inflation. The Burrito Index: Consumer Prices Have Soared 160% Since 2001 (August 1, 2016). The Burrito Index tracks the cost of a regular burrito since 2001. Since we keep detailed records of expenses (a necessity if you’re a self-employed free-lance writer), I can track the cost of a regular...

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Sexism and the English language | The Economist

2018-06-01

Sexism is rife in language. A woman may be described as “bossy”, while a man is more likely to be “assertive”. The Economist’s language expert Lane Greene explores the gender stereotypes used in everyday speech. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2018-06-01

2018-06-01

EM FX has started the week mixed. Some relief was seen as US rates stalled out last week, but this Friday’s jobs number could be key for the next leg of this dollar rally. On Wednesday, the Fed releases its Beige book for the upcoming June 13 FOMC meeting, where a 25 bp hike is widely expected. We believe EM FX remains vulnerable to further losses.

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America 2018: Dicier by the Day

2018-05-31

2018-05-31

Venezuela is Annual Inflation Rate 2015-2018

Scrape all this putrid excrescence off and we're left with a non-fantasy reality: everything is getting dicier by the day. If we look beneath the cheery chatter of the financial media and the tiresomely repetitive Russian collusion narrative (that's unraveling as the Ministry of Propaganda's machinations are exposed), we find that America in 2018 is dicier by the day.

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Should there be curbs on free speech? | The Economist

2018-05-30

Free speech is at the heart of a healthy democracy, but in recent years it has come under attack. Controversial views are being silenced to protect vulnerable people from harm. The Economist’s Jon Fasman offers his take on how societies should react. #OpenFuture Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2J1OgIw Daily Watch: …

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How Systems Collapse

2018-05-30