Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

03-19-13 Macro Analytics – PEAK JOBS – w/ Charles Hugh Smith

PEAK JOBS 23 Minutes, 25 Slides Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith raise and debate seven key notions, that along with unsound money, are central to the understanding of the structural economic problems facing the globe today. The world is being brutally impacted by a slowing rate of growth in jobs and is now …

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Why the Yen Is Now Fairly Valued, USD back as Preferred Funding Currency

Producer prices and “real mean reversion” for currencies show that the yen is currently fairly valued. Many momentum factors could, however, speak for some further weakening, while seasonality favours an appreciation. For us, the US dollar is back as the preferred funding currency. The real mean reversion for currencies Some economists, like Goldman’s O’Neill, in the case …

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More About Overheating Emerging Markets: Retail Investors Should not Touch these Bonds

  In our series about emerging markets, we name some that are overheating and could face increases of government bond yields due to higher inflation and weaker current accounts. At the same time, banks are aggressively selling emerging market bonds as possibility to achieve high yields. Tristan Hanson, head of asset allocation at Ashburton Asset …

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When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions?

Hedge Funds have lost their power. This year has shown that their only remaining possibility to gain easy money  is a concerted action with some of their friends manipulating currency markets, calling it “currency wars” and creating an unholy alliance with the dovish prime minister Abe. Some of the biggest U.S. hedge-fund investors have made …

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Is U.S. Housing Really Recovering? Pros and Cons

The U.S. housing market is the main driver for risk on/off movements and therewith implicitly of the gold price. We state charts, e.g. Shiller Home Price Index and U.S. New Home Sales statistics, arguments in favour of a housing recovery and the counter-arguments.

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Is U.S. Housing Really Recovering? A Discussion

Collection of 6 sources showing: Housing Market Index,Home Inventory, S&P/C-Shiller, New Home Sales&Prices and Ratio to Population, MBS Purchases by the Fed, Household Liabilities and Dependency Ratio.

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Is a Liquidity Trap Really a Problem? Yen Debasement Part3 by Noah Smith

Thoughts on the Japanese Currency Debasement (part 3) In previous posts we looked on the following aspects of the recent Japanese currency debasement: Overview: What different leading economists – Paul Krugman, Richard Koo, Adam Posen, Kyle Bass – think about the Japanese currency debasement and the way to more private spending and investing instead of …

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Sell in May, Come Back in October (outdated)

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. This year the improvement was a bit earlier thanks to QE3. By March the economy already weakened according to the latest ISM PMIs.

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Macro Analytics 02-02-13 – RIP: Our Expansionist Central State – w/Charles Hugh Smith

Like the sun coming up in the morning, Central State planning and expansion predictably leads to state spending exceeding the rate of the real growth of the state’s economy. The US Central State has been no exception and has been relentlessly expanding faster than GDP since the 1950s with only two notable exceptions. The dot.com …

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01-05-13 Macro Analytics – 2013 THEMES – Charles Hugh Smith

THE FOLLOWING ARE EXPLORED Rising SYSTEMIC FRAGILITY is increasing the odds of an “unexpected” breakdown. it is now reaching a “Threshold of Vulnerability”. The FED LOSSES POLITICAL CAPITAL in 2013. We are witnessing a reduced impact of each QE version, Expect Hope to Turn to Fear when this occurs. ECONOMIC STAGNATION and PERMANENT ADOLESCENCE Using …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Epic Shift in Monetary Policy: Japan goes SNB, Nuclear Option

According to Bloomberg, at least prime minister Abe is taking the nuclear option and is following the SNB in buying foreign assets. This is a huge change in global monetary policy.

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2012 Posts on Global Macro

Debt, the Financial Cycle Determinant between 2011 and 2017

Between 2011 and 2017, the reduction of debt , the hunt on the rich and investment into countries with low debt will become the main rational expectation and the determinant of the next financial cycle.

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Quantitative Easing, Gold and the Swiss Franc

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese Yen up. … Continue reading »

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12-22-12 Macro Analytics – RECAPPING 2012 Charles Hugh Smith

As a regular MACRO ANALYTICS Co-Host, Charles Hugh Smith has recorded over 20 session in 2012, each averaging close to 30 slides for over 600 slides and 8-10 hours of viewing. Selecting the highlights is a daunting task.Distilling it down, there are some central messages that are worth taking the time to reinforce. ALL OF …

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