Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Tony Blair on the future of liberalism | The Economist

2018-09-15

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Speaking in London at The Economist’s Open Future festival on September 15th 2018, former British prime minister Tony Blair spoke to Helen Joyce about Brexit, immigration, technology and political participation. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: …

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ECB (Data) Independence

2018-09-15

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2018-09-15

ECB Real GDP Projections 2016-2018
Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their collective opinion.

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Reinventing liberalism for the 21st Century | The Economist

2018-09-14

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This week we celebrate our 175th anniversary with a manifesto for renewing liberalism through a programme of radical reform. But what does this entail? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy On our cover this week we celebrate our 175 anniversary and we issue a manifesto for renewing liberalism. It’s been a …

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Europe Starting To Reckon Eurodollar Curve

2018-09-14

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2018-09-14

Europe Industrial Production 2016-2018
We’ve been here before. Economists and central bankers become giddy about the prospects for success, meaning actual recovery. For that to happen, reflation must first attain enough momentum. If it does, as is always forecast, reflation becomes recovery. The world then moves off this darkening path toward the unknown crazy.

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Congo: how to stop the killing | The Economist

2018-09-13

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More people were killed in a recent civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo than in conflicts in Vietnam, Syria, Iraq and Korea combined. The African country may be sliding back in to war, but one man is hoping a message of peace can overcome violence. WARNING: this film contains distressing images. Click here …

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The Next Financial Crisis Is Right on Schedule (2019)

2018-09-13

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2018-09-13

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
Neither small business nor the bottom 90% of households can afford this "best economy ever." After 10 years of unprecedented goosing, some of the real economy is finally overheating: costs are heating up, unemployment is at historic lows, small business optimism is high, and so on--all classic indicators that the top of this cycle is in.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: U.S. Government Is Destroying Capitalism WORLDWIDE!

2018-09-11

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Where does your phone come from? | The Economist

2018-09-11

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Apple is expected to announce its latest handset—the iPhone XS. Like all smartphones it will contain more than 70 chemical elements, which are mined from the Earth’s crust in countries all over the world. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy The number of smartphone users globally is set to reach 2.5 …

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Global Asset Allocation Update – September 2018

2018-09-11

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2018-09-11

Moderate Allocation, Sep 2018
The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is 50/50. Decoupling anyone? That’s what the market is whispering right now, that the recent troubles in foreign economies is contained and won’t affect the US. The most obvious example of that trend is the performance of US stocks versus the rest of the world.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2018-09-10

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2018-09-10

Philippine central bank signaled another big hike. Poland central bank appears to be moving its forward guidance out further. Russia officials are sending confusing signals regarding monetary policy. Russia officials stand ready to support the ruble debt market if new US sanctions negatively impact it. South Africa’s African National Congress pledged to undertake land reform responsibly.

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After 10 Years of “Recovery,” What Are Central Banks So Afraid Of?

2018-09-07

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2018-09-07

Central Bank Balance sheet
If the world's economies still need central bank life support to survive, they aren't healthy--they're barely clinging to life. The "recovery"/Bull Market is in its 10th year, and yet central banks are still tiptoeing around as if the tiniest misstep will cause the whole shebang to shatter: what are they so afraid of? 

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Why do languages die? | The Economist

2018-09-06

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There are more than 7,000 languages. The number of people speaking English, Spanish and Mandarin continues to grow, but every fortnight a langauge will disappear forever. The Economist’s language expert Lane Greene explains why. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Irankarapte iishu Dydh Da I don’t speak those languages. In fact …

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Your responses to “a minute to change the world” | The Economist

2018-09-05

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What is the one thing you would change to build a more open world—and how would you go about it? You told us your answers in a 60 second video with #OpenFuture See more from OpenFuture here: https://www.economist.com/openfuture #Openfuture playlist is here: https://goo.gl/ehUxFa Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2J1OgIw Daily Watch: …

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The Global Financial System Is Unraveling, And No, the U.S. Is Not immune

2018-09-05

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2018-09-05

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Currencies don't melt down randomly. This is only the first stage of a complete re-ordering of the global financial system. Take a look at the Shanghai Stock Market (China) and tell me what you see: A complete meltdown, right? More specifically, a four-month battle to cling to the key technical support of the 200-week moving average (the red line). Once the support finally broke, the index crashed.

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How to tame tech giants | The Economist

2018-09-04

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Google, Facebook and Amazon are among the biggest companies in the world. Their dominance is worrying for consumers and competition. Here’s why. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Can you imagine life without Google, Facebook or Amazon? Chances are you’re actually on one of those platforms right now watching this. These …

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Emerging Market Week Ahead Preview

2018-09-04

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2018-09-04

EM FX ended last week on a firm note, but weakness resumed Monday. Higher than expected Turkish inflation hurt the lira, which in turn dragged down BRL, ARS, ZAR, and RUB. We expect EM to remain under pressure this week when the US returns from holiday Tuesday.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-09-03

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2018-09-03

China stepped up efforts to attract more foreign inflows to the onshore bond market. Russia has softened its unpopular pension reform proposal. The African National Congress withdrew an existing land expropriation bill. Moody’s downgraded twenty Turkish financial institutions. Turkey central bank Deputy Governor Erkan Kilimci has reportedly resigned.

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‘Mispriced’ Bonds Are Everywhere

2018-09-02

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2018-09-02

Canada BoC ON Target, August 2018
The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are.

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Why Is Productivity Dead in the Water?

2018-09-01

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2018-09-01

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2016
As the accompanying chart shows, productivity in the U.S. has been declining since the early 2000s. This trend mystifies economists, as the tremendous investments in software, robotics, networks and mobile computing would be expected to boost productivity, as these tools enable every individual who knows how to use them to produce more value.

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Why startups are leaving Silicon Valley | The Economist

2018-08-31

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The future of Silicon Valley is The Economist’s cover story this week. Why are people leaving, and startups going elsewhere? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For decades Silicon Valley has been where you go if you want to make it big in technology but these days entrepreneurs are starting to …

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