Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

US TIC, 2013-2019
The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t...

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A New Stage of the US-China Conflict

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

The US-China diplomatic relationship may be entering a new stage. The balance of power between the key players – Trump, China, the US Congress, and the Democrats – is changing and their roles are being reshuffled. This might be enough to break the endless cycle of agreements and re-escalations. In short, we think both Trump and Chinese officials have a greater incentive to reach a deal (or at least not to escalate) this time around.

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Could deepfakes weaken democracy? | The Economist

2019-10-22

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Videos can be faked to make people say things they never actually said. This poses dangers for democracy. Can you spot ALL the deep fake interviews in this film? Read more here: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/11/09/women-in-public-life-are-increasingly-subject-to-sexual-slander-dont-believe-it Artwork by: Bill Posters and Daniel Howe Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy These videos are all deepfakes....

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The Dollar-driven Cage Match: Xi vs Li in China With Nowhere Else To Go

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

China Industrial Production, 1998-2019
China’s growing troubles go way back long before trade wars ever showed up. It was Euro$ #2 that set this course in motion, and then Euro$ #3 which proved the country’s helplessness. It proved it not just to anyone willing to honestly evaluate the situation, it also established the danger to one key faction of Chinese officials.

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Prying Open the Overton Window

2019-10-22

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2019-10-22

Acceleration of Technological Adoption Curves, 1867-2017
If you're truly interested in finding solutions to humanity's pressing problems, then start helping us pry open the Overton Window. The Overton Window describes the spectrum of concepts, policies and approaches that can be publicly discussed without being ridiculed or marginalized as "too radical," "unworkable," "crazy," etc. 

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Charles Hugh Smith – The Financial System is Headed for Collapse

2019-10-21

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SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #FINANCIAL CRISIS #OIL PRICE #PETROL #GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE #DOLLAR COLLAPSE #GOLD #SILVER #BITCOIN #ETHERIUM #CRYPTOCURRENCY #LITECOIN #FINANCIAL CRASH #GLOBAL RESET #FINANCIAL CRISIS #ECONOMIC COLLAPSE #NYSE #NASDAQ

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All-Stars #72 Jeff Snider: The Supply-side of the Eurodollar equation

2019-10-21

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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Brexit: Live Q&A with The Economist

2019-10-21

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It has been a busy time for British politics. Again, Brexit is taking over the headlines. John Peet, The Economist’s Brexit editor, takes your questions in a live Q&A. https://econ.st/32C5Cpa Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For specific questions, please see timecodes here: 01:30 What happened on Saturday 19th October? 05:55 …

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What We’ve Lost

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

This is only a partial list of what we've lost to globalism, cheap credit and the Tyranny of Price which generates the Landfill Economy. A documentary on the decline of small farms and the rural economy in France highlights what we've lost in the decades-long rush to globalize and financialize everything on the planet-- what we call Neoliberalism, the ideology of turning everything into a global market controlled by The Tyranny of Price and cheap...

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-21

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2019-10-21

We are beginning to become more constructive on EM.  The main trigger for some optimism is the shifting US-China dynamic. In our view, the partial trade deal reveals weakness on the part of the US.  Reports suggest China will begin pushing for all existing tariffs to be dropped as part of Phase 2, which would be very positive for EM.  That is still likely months away but this shifting dynamic bears watching. 

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Could Brexit end London’s financial dominance? | The Economist

2019-10-19

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More than 300 financial organisations have already left the City of London to set up shop in other European capitals. What will this mean for London and the rest of Europe? Read more from The Economist: https://econ.st/2BtsU4A Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check …

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Welcome to the USSR: the United States of Suppression and Repression

2019-10-19

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2019-10-19

workers share of national income, 1994-2020
We're all against "fake news," right? Until your content is deemed "fake news" in a "fake news" indictment without any evidence, trial or recourse. When propaganda is cleverly engineered, people don't even recognize it as propaganda: welcome to the USSR, the United States of Suppression and Repression. 

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Economic Decay Leads to Social and Political Decay

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

Workers share of national income, 1994-2020
If we want to make real progress, we have to properly diagnose the structural sources of the rot that is spreading quickly into every nook and cranny of the society and culture. It seems my rant yesterday (Let Me Know When It's Over) upset a lot of people, many of whom felt I trivialized the differences between the parties and all the reforms that people believe will right wrongs and reduce suffering.

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China’s Dollar Problem Puts the Sync In Globally Synchronized Downturn

2019-10-18

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2019-10-18

China Exports, 2006-2019
Because the prevailing theory behind the global slowdown is “trade wars”, most if not all attention is focused on China. While the correct target, everyone is coming it at from the wrong direction. The world awaits a crash in Chinese exports engineered by US tariffs. It’s not happening, at least according to China’s official statistics.

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How Brexit is changing the EU | The Economist

2019-10-17

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Brexit once seemed to pose an existential threat to the European Union. But Britain’s withdrawal process has had some surprising results—especially when it comes to how other member states view the EU. Read more: https://econ.st/2MmthnW Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy When the UK voted to leave the European Union in …

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Dollar Broadly Weaker as Brexit Deal Takes Shape

2019-10-17

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2019-10-17

The dollar remains under pressure due to weak US retail sales and rising optimism on Brexit and the trade war. Brexit negotiations remain tense and we should expect a higher than usual noise-to-signal ratio at this stage. China said its goal is to stop the trade war and remove all tariffs. US has a full data schedule; we remain constructive on the US economic outlook.

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Let Me Know When It’s Over

2019-10-16

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2019-10-16

Maybe it's my cheap seat or my general exhaustion, but the whole staged spectacle is beyond tiresome; I've had my fill. Let me me know when it's over: yes, all of it: the impeachment, the trade dispute with China, U.S. involvement in Syria, the manic stock market rally and the 2020 election.

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Dollar Resilient as Cracks in Risk-On Appear

2019-10-16

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2019-10-16

Some cracks have appeared in the market’s risk-on sentiment. We continue to believe that recent developments take some pressure off the Fed to cut rates again this month. Our base case for a Brexit delay has been strengthened; UK reported weak labor market data. The situation is Turkey continues to develop negatively for asset prices; trade data out of China once again showed the impact of the trade war and the resulting global slowdown.

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Charles Hugh Smith: Will You Be Richer or Poorer?

2019-10-14

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Much of what we truly value is at risk. Full description and comments at: https://www.peakprosperity.com/charles-hugh-smith-will-you-be-richer-or-poorer/ Prolific and exceptionally perceptive author Charles Hugh Smith returns to discuss the insights in his just-launched book Will You Be Richer Or Poorer? Profit, Power & AI in a Traumatized World (the first chapter of which can be read for …

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit.  The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic.  The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.

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