Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 17

2012-09-17

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2012-09-17

chess
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   Nearly every development in recent days has been embraced by the foreign exchange market as a reason to continue to do what it has been doing since late July, and that is to sell the dollar.    The German Constitutional Court ruling, allowing the European Stability Mechanism to …

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It’s not simply QE3

2012-09-14

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2012-09-14

Fed Programs and Markets
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The outcome of the FOMC meeting is not just a new round of quantitative easing, some might call it QE3. What the Fed announced represents a new chapter in its policy response. The first distinguishing aspect of its decision is the open-ended nature of it. While it has not indicated … Continue reading...

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monopoly
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market …

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What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

SNB Reserves vs. EURCHF
  On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154,  fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the … Continue reading »

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

2012-09-03

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2012-09-03

FM TN G3D Chess1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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FX Technical Outlook, Net Speculative Positions, Global Markets, week August 27

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

risk
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead.  First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks.  Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 …

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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

2012-08-19

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2012-08-19

Economist Markets by Aug15, 2012
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus.   They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Net Speculative Positions and Outlook, week of August 13

2012-08-13

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2012-08-13

Chess 2
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week of August 13 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com   Market positioning in the week ending August 10 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi’s recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying …

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Net Speculative Positions and Technical Analysis,week from August 6

2012-08-06

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2012-08-06

Three player chess
Currency Positioning and Technical Analysis, week from August6 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com The overall technical tone of the US dollar is suspect. During the last few months, it has been trending lower against the dollar-bloc currencies, Canadian and Australian dollars and the Mexican peso.  The greenback has trended higher against the euro and Swiss …

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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5) FX Theory

Breakdown of global GDP growth1
Content : What Determines FX Rates? Purchasing Power Parity, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Balance of Payments Model, (Reverse) Carry Trade, Asset Market Model, Real Mean Reversion, lots more

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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