Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Great Graphic: Euro’s (OECD) PPP

2019-06-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-12

US President Trump recently bemoaned the fact that the euro is undervalued. While his critics complain that he is prone to exaggeration, in this case, the euro is undervalued. This Great Graphic a 30-year chart of the euro has moved around its purchasing power parity as measured by the OECD. Currently, the euro is about 22% undervalued, and it has been cheap to PPP since for the past five years.

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FX Daily, June 12: Anxiety Ticks Up, Risks Pared

2019-06-12

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-12

Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a five-day advance yesterday and set the heavier tone for equities today. Continued protests in Hong Kong were not shrugged off as they have been in the last couple of sessions. The Hang Seng's nearly 1.9% decline was the largest in a month and led the region lower.

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FX Daily, June 11: Markets Take Another Small Step Away from the Edge

2019-06-11

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-11

Overview: The recovery in equities continues today in light news day. Nearly all the bourses in the Asia Pacific region rose, led by a 2.6% gain of the Shanghai Composite. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a third session. European equity benchmarks are rising for the sixth time in the past seven sessions.

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FX Daily, June 10: Collective Sigh of Relief Lifts Equities, Yields, and the Dollar

2019-06-10

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-10

Overview: A global sigh of relief that the US will not tariff all its imports from Mexico. Equities are all higher, and the weekend demonstrations in Hong Kong over a bill allowing extraditions to the mainland for the first time did not deter investors from bidding up the Hang Seng over 2.3%, the most this year. European equities are following suit.

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What the Mexican peso is really saying about US tariffs

2019-06-07

by Forexlive

Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks with BNNBloomberg about the Mexican peso, the ECB decision and how to interpret the global trade war. LET'S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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What the Mexican peso is really saying about US tariffs

2019-06-07

by Forexlive

Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks with BNNBloomberg about the Mexican peso, the ECB decision and how to interpret the global trade war. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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FX Daily, June 7: Jobs Data and Tariffs Dominate

2019-06-07

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-07

Overview: Global equities continue to recover from the recent slide. Chinese and Hong Kong markets were on holiday today, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index eked out a minor gain and ensured that its four-week slide ended. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.7% through the European morning.

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FX Daily, June 6: US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention

2019-06-06

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-06

Overview: The implications of President Trump's assessment that there has not been "nearly enough" progress in negotiations with Mexico that would avert the tariff on June 10 competing for investors' attention, which had been squarely today's ECB meeting. Minutes before Trump spoke Fitch cut its sovereign rating for Mexico to BBB from BBB+, while Moody's cut its outlook to negative from stable.

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FX Daily, June 05: Dollar Remains on Back Foot

2019-06-05

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-05

Overview: The Federal Reserve's patience never excluded a rate cut should conditions warrant. The acknowledgment of this without signaling a change its stance is being seized upon to justify aggressive pricing of rates. At the same time, there has some tempering of trade anxiety on the margin that is also constructive. Asia and European equities were pulled higher after the strongest rally in several months in the US.

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FX Daily, June 04: Nervous Calm Settles Over Markets

2019-06-04

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-04

The global capital markets are stabilizing today after taking a body blow of broadening the use of US tariffs (in migration dispute with Mexico), threatening the ratification of NAFTA 2.0, and still escalating hostile rhetoric between the US and China, and the threat of anti-trust action against the largest digital platforms.

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FX Daily, June 03: US Penchant for Tariffs Keeps Investors on Edge

2019-06-03

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-03

Overview: The weekend failed to break the grip of investor worries that is driving stocks and yields lower. The US Administration's penchant for tariffs is not simply aimed at China, where there is some sympathy, but the move against Mexico, dropping special privileges for India, and apparently, had considered tariffs on Australia. At the same time, the threat of 25% tariff on auto imports.

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FX Weekly Preview: Curiouser and Curiouser

2019-06-03

by Marc Chandler

2019-06-03

The first week of June features the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, an ECB meeting, and the US employment data. The RBA is expected to deliver its first rate cut in three years. The market appears to have discounted not only a second cut in H2 but has priced nearly half of a third cut as well.

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FX Daily, May 31: US Struggles to Build Physical Wall, Tries Tariff Wall on Mexico

2019-05-31

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-31

Overview: The US announcement to lay a 5% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico (starting June 10) until it stops the flow of "illegal migrants" spurred sharp losses in the Mexican peso and general risk-off move that strengthened the yen. The tariffs are set to rise every month until reaching 25%. This is a significant surprise and especially given that the Trump Administration is preparing to formally submit the USMCA to Congress.

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Canada, Mexico, and the USMCA

2019-05-31

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-31

The US dollar closed today above CAD1.3500 for the first time since January 2. Despite the setback, the Canadian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies year-to-date with a little less than a one percent gain. The yen, in second, has is up about 0.2% (~JPY109.50). Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso's 2.6% gain puts it in in second place behind the Russian rouble's 7.2% appreciation.

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FX Daily, May 30: Kill Bull: Intermission

2019-05-30

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-30

Overview: After significant moves in equities and interest rates, investors are taking a collective breath, waiting for fresh developments. A nervous calm has settled over the capital market. China, Japan, and Australian equities leaked lower, but other bourses in the region, including Korea and Taiwan posted modest gains, while Indonesian equities are still responding positively to the recent election.

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FX Daily, May 29: Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge

2019-05-29

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-29

Overview: The slump in equities continues after the poor showing in the US yesterday. Nearly all bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe are lower. Indonesia is the notable exception as domestic operators re-position after the election. Foreign investors have been notable sellers of Korean and Taiwanese shares this month (in excess of $6.2 bln). Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is testing its lowest levels since March, and the S&P 500 is poised to gap...

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Bannockburn’s Chandler: We’re at the lower rungs of a large trade escalation ladder

2019-05-28

by Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex discusses what people may be missing from the US-China trade war, and other global risks that could impact markets.

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FX Daily, May 28: Risk Appetites Curbed, US Leadership Awaited in FX

2019-05-28

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-28

Overview: The euro initially reacted positively to the EU Parliament elections. The populists did not do quite as well as many expected. The two main groupings failed to secure a majority, but with the help of the Liberals, and possibly the Greens, that did well throughout Europe, a new European Commission will be forged. The heads of state meet later today, but no real decisions are likely. The horse trading will likely take most of the next...

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FX Weekly Preview: The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead

2019-05-27

by Marc Chandler

2019-05-27

As May winds down, the light economic calendar will allow investors to take their cues from the evolution of three disruptive forces--trade, Brexit and the US economy. With actions against Huawei and possibly a handful of Chinese surveillance equipment producers, the US raised the stakes. The retaliatory tariffs are effective on June 1, but Beijing has not formally responded to the moves against Chinese companies.

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