Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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FX Daily, December 10: Lack of Closure Weighs on Sentiment

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

Investors angst over trade tensions and Brexit continue remains elevated, and poor Chinese and Japanese economic news played on global growth fears. Equities continue to slog lower. Bond yields are little changed, and the dollar is lower against most of the major currencies.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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It’s always darkest just before dawn

2018-12-09

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Adam Button from ForexLive talks with BNNBloomberg about the Canadian dollar, the fallout from the Hauwei CFO arrest and how to view the China-US trade war.

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FX Daily, December 07: A Couple More Events before Seeing the End of Difficult Week for Investors

2018-12-07

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2018-12-07

Overview: Global equities have stabilized after US equities recovered yesterday, with the NASDAQ 100 staging its biggest reversal in eight months and the S&P500 recouped almost three percent to close 0.15% lower. Asia Pacific equities were mostly higher. Hong Kong shares, including the mainland shares that trade there, were the notable exception.

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FX Daily, December 06: New Spanner in US-China Relations Weighs on Risk Appetites

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

Overview: The global capital markets were fragile amid trade uncertainty and economic slowdown fears. News that Canada arrested the CFO of Huawei on behalf of the US, ostensibly for violating the embargo against Iran triggered an almost immediate risk-off wave that has extended the equity markets losses, sending core bond yields lower, with the US 10-year slipping below 2.9%, and underpinning the dollar against most currencies, with the notable...

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FX Daily, December 05: US Market Closure may be a Firebreak

2018-12-05

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2018-12-05

The 3%+ drop in the S&P 500 yesterday kept global equities under pressure today, though losses in Asia and Europe were milder. In Asia, only Hong Kong and Taiwan benchmarks lost more than 1%. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.8% in late morning turnover.

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The Dollar and Its Rivals

2018-12-05

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2018-12-05

I was in graduate school, studying American foreign policy when I stumbled on Riccardo Parboni's "The Dollar and Its Rivals." This thin volume showed how the foreign exchange market was the arena in which capitalist rivalries were expressed. More than any single book, it set me on a more than 30-year path.

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FX Daily, December 04: Stock Rally Arrested, but Bond and Oil Advance Continues, leaving Dollar in a Lurch

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

Overview: Equity markets are unable to build on yesterday's advance, but bonds and oil are extending gains. The dollar remains on the defensive and is off again all the major currencies. The lack of a joint statement over the weekend by the US and China and seemingly different interpretations of what was agreed leaves investors in a lurch.

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Great Graphic: The Dollar Index Climbs a Wall of Worry

2018-12-04

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2018-12-04

To be sure, the Dollar Index is not the dollar. It is not even a trade-weighted measure of the dollar. Two of America's largest trading partners, China and Mexico, are not represented. It is heavily weighted to the euro and currencies that move in its orbit, like the Swiss franc Swedish krona, and arguably the British pound.

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FX Daily, December 03: G20 Fan Animal Spirits

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1 when Trump had threatened to increase the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods to 25%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dramatic Week Ends with Whimper?

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell's testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data.

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Cool Video: Santa Claus Rally and Trade

2018-12-02

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2018-12-02

Marc Chandler in Fox Business
I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally--a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month's lows last week. I liked that the price action made last Friday's price action into an island bottom, with a gap lower opening followed by Monday's gap higher opening.

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Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500

2018-12-01

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2018-12-01

S&P and Weekly Jobless Claims
The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year.  Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane will be needed just to hold...

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FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose three times more than expected and Putin expressed little support for fresh output cuts.

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FX Daily, November 28: Powell Awaited

2018-11-28

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2018-11-28

Overview:  Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama.  The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY.  The G20 meeting begins Friday, and several bilateral meetings are taking the spotlight from the larger gathering. 

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FX Daily, November 27: Market Shrugs Off Latest US Tariff Provocation

2018-11-27

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2018-11-27

The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride.  Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses. European markets are trying to extend their recovery for a third session, but the industry performance is mixed with energy and materials lower, and utilities, consumer staples, and information technology/communication...

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Near-term Outlook

2018-11-27

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2018-11-27

There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year.  In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first.  It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia's meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed here in Q4 18.

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FX Weekly Preview: Powell and Draghi, Xi and Trump

2018-11-26

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2018-11-26

The investment climate will be shaped by three events next week.  ECB President Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament to kick-off the week.  Fed Chairman Powell speaks to the NY Economic Club in the middle of the week.  Presidents Trump and Xi are to meet at the G20 meeting to end the week in hopes of dialing back the escalating trade conflict.  Also at the G20 summit, the NAFTA2.0 is expected to be signed, and the steel and aluminum...

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FX Daily, November 23: Friday

2018-11-23

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2018-11-23

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies. Japanese and Indian markets were closed for holidays and a weaker than expected flash EMU PMI helped keep the euro pinned near this week's lows. Although the EU seemed to thrown UK's embattled May a lifeline with some compromise wording in a draft declaration, the challenge remains the same--Parliament's approval.

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Short term Brexit trades are a tough way to make money

2018-11-22

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Adam Button from ForexLive.com talks to BNNBloomberg about the pound and the wild moves in the currency market. He also asks whether Canada has a pipeline crisis, or a regulation crisis. LET’S CONNECT! Facebook ► http://facebook.com/forexlive Twitter ► https://twitter.com/ForexLive Forexlive Homepage ► http://www.forexlive.com/

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