Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Euro Short Covering Bounce Fizzles and Draghi Pushes it Lower

2015-11-20

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-20

The US dollar is rebounding today after yesterday's correction. Those losses seemed to have been a function of some profit-taking after the seeming confirmation in the FOMC minutes that the Fed was set, barring a significant surprise, to raise rates next month. The dollar bulls were already beginning to buy the dip before Draghi …

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US Corporate Earnings, Overseas Sales and the Dollar

2015-11-19

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-19

How much of a headwind is international exposure causing US-based companies? Factset did a study earlier this month, drawing on a combination of companies that had already reported Q3 earnings and used estimated results for those who had not reported. It sheds light on the much-discussed earnings recession. The blended earnings (as of November 5) …

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Great Graphic: In the US to be in the Top 1% Depends on Where You Live

2015-11-19

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-19

It shows how much money one needs to earn to be in the top 1% of the state's income earners. There is great variance. Connecticut has the highest threshold of $678k. Arkansas has the lowest threshold at $228k. That is a third of Connecticut.

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Dollar Corrects Lower

2015-11-19

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-19

The US dollar is trading heavily today. The losses are not particularly steep against either the majors or the emerging market currencies. A common narrative is attributing the dollar's pullback to "dovish minutes," but this is not a fair asse...

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Democratizing the Fed or Politicizing Monetary Policy?

2015-11-19

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-19

The British historian Lord Acton famously said that "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely." The American response is a system of checks and balances. The Federal Reserve represents a concentration of power...

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A Less Terrible Political Moment for Brazil

2015-11-18

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-18

(from my colleagues Dr. Win Thin and Ilan Solot) Brazil’s government scored an important set of political victories yesterday, many of which impact the fiscal accounts. It’s too soon to say that the tide has decidedly changed, but there are some positive signs

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Awaiting Fresh Cues, the Greenback Consolidates Gains

2015-11-18

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-18

Amid light news, the US dollar’s recent gains have pared slightly. Attention turns to the US, were several Fed officials speak, October housing starts/permits will be released, and then later in the session, traders will peruse the minutes ...

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Security, Refugees and European Fiscal Policy

2015-11-17

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-17

The EU is warning that Austria, Italy, and Lithuania are at risk of not achieving their 2016 budget goals. It also warned Spain that is too may miss its target. Nevertheless, the EU said there were no serious violations.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Observations

2015-11-17

by Marc Chandler

2015-11-17

1. In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending November 10 covers the few days before the US employment data and a few days after. Speculative participants made five significant (10k contracts or more) adjustments to gross positions in the currency futures. The prior reporting period saw only three significant adjustments,...

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