Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, September 06: Focus Shifts to North American Jobs Before Turning Back to Europe next Week

2019-09-06

by

2019-09-06

Investors hope that the world took a step away from the abyss in recent days. Developments in Hong Kong, US-China talking, a political and economic crisis in Italy appears to have been averted, and a risk of a no-deal Brexit has lessened. Asia Pacific equities closed the week on a firm note and extended the rally the third week.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 05: Brexit becomes a Dog’s Breakfast as Dollar’s Correction Continues

2019-09-05

by

2019-09-05

The Dollar Index fell the most in three months yesterday and is experiencing mild follow-through selling today. With hopes that Hong Kong has turned a corner, news that in-person US-China talks will resume next month, and a no-deal Brexit is well on the way to being averted, investor risk appetites are robust today.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 04: HK Concession and Better EMU PMI Overshadows Self-Inflicted Trade and Brexit Woes

2019-09-04

by

2019-09-04

Risk appetites have been bolstered by three developments. The UK appears to have taken a tentative step away from leaving the EU without a deal. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Lam has agreed to formally withdraw the controversial extradition measure that had been suspended.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 03: Pound Punished in High Drama

2019-09-03

by

2019-09-03

A showdown between UK Prime Minister Johnson and Parliament over Brexit pushed sterling below $1.20. The euro is extended its losses after finishing last week below $1.10. Growth concerns are seeing equities retreat. Japanese and Chinese shares managed to eke out gains, but the Asia Pacific and European stocks have been sold.

Read More »

What Happened Monday

2019-09-03

by

2019-09-03

Markets in the US and Canada were closed on Monday for national Labor Day holidays. Here is a succinct summary of key developments that will set the backdrop for Tuesday. On September 1, the new round of tariffs in the US-China fight took effect. The US placed a 15% tariff on around 3000 Chinese goods that thus far had escaped action.

Read More »

September Monthly

2019-09-02

by

2019-09-02

Three forces are shaping the investment climate. The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other's goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1).

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Talking and Fighting in the Week Ahead

2019-09-02

by

2019-09-02

Equity markets and the US dollar closed last week and August on a firm note. Ahead of the weekend, the dollar rose to new highs for the year against the euro, Swedish krona, Norwegian krone, and the New Zealand dollar. While the next set of US and Chinese tariffs start September 1, the market is making the most of the lull.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 30: US Dollar Finishing August on Firm Note as Euro nears Two-Year Lows

2019-08-30

by

2019-08-30

Global equities are advancing at least in part on ideas that trade tensions are easing. China announced it would not take immediate action on the five percentage point increase in levies that the US announced strictly in response to China's retaliatory tariffs. A lull between blows is not the same thing as de-escalation or truce.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 29: Johnson Faces Legal Challenges and Conte may be Given an Extension

2019-08-29

by

2019-08-29

The capital markets are calm today, though there does seem to be some optimism creeping back into the market. The Chinese yuan strengthened, snapping a ten-day slide and Italian bank shares index has risen by more than 1% for the fourth consecutive session.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 28: Optimism about Italy Creeps Back in but Sterling Heads the Opposite Way on Brexit Realities

2019-08-28

by

2019-08-28

The capital markets have turned quiet. There have been no more headline bombs about trade, and China set the dollar's reference rate much lower than projected. Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Hong Kong, China, India, and Singapore were on the downside, while Taiwan, Korea, and Australia rose.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 27: Realism Fights Back After Hope Dominated Yesterday

2019-08-27

by

2019-08-27

Hope triumphed over realism yesterday, and realism is fighting back toward. Asia Pacific markets, however, traded on the echo from the recovery in North America on Monday. The MSCI Asia Pacific recouped part of yesterday's drop, led by Chinese markets. Hong Kong was the main exception.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 26: Trump’s “Call from China” helps Markets Recover

2019-08-26

by

2019-08-26

Overview:  The anticipated growth implications of the heightened tensions between the world's two largest economies is dominating activity at the start of the new week. These considerations that drove the 2.6% drop in the S&P 500 before the weekend is carrying over into today's activity.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is not about the Week Ahead

2019-08-26

by

2019-08-26

It's the last week of August. Several economic reports will be released in the coming days. They include the US deflator of consumer expenditures that the Federal Reserve targets, China's PMI, and the eurozone's preliminary August CPI. It is not that the data do not matter, but investors realize the die is cast.

Read More »

G7 to Deliver a Nothing Burger

2019-08-24

by

2019-08-24

A Bloomberg article about the weekend G7 meeting says, "multilateralism is dead."  An op-ed in the Financial Times suggests that the most important political alliance may be "rejuvenated" at the G7 meeting.  The truth is likely found somewhere in between. 

Read More »

FX Daily, August 23: Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell

2019-08-23

by

2019-08-23

Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend.  Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide.  European bourses are edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is poised to end its three-week air pocket.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 22: Tick Up in EMU PMI Does Little, Waiting for Powell

2019-08-22

by

2019-08-22

Overview:  Soft data in Asia and the continued decline in the yuan (six days and counting) prevented Asian equities from following the US lead from yesterday when the S&P 500 advanced by 0.8%.  European shares are paring yesterday's 1.2% advance despite an unexpected gain in the EMU flash PMI.  US shares are little changed in the European morning.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 21: European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed

2019-08-21

by

2019-08-21

The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today.  Most benchmarks fell.  Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend.  A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday's losses and more.  It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 20: Marking Time Ahead of PMI and Powell

2019-08-20

by

2019-08-20

Overview:  Global equities and bonds are firmer in quiet turnover, and the dollar is narrowing mixed in narrow ranges.  The big events of the week, the eurozone flash PMI and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole still lie ahead.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive session, led by Korea and Australia's 1%+ gains. 

Read More »

FX Daily, August 19: China’s Rate Reform Helps Markets Extend End of Last Week Recovery

2019-08-19

by

2019-08-19

Overview: China announced some changes in its interest rate framework that is expected to lead to lower rates.  This helped lift equity markets, which were already recovering at the end of last week from the earlier drubbing.  Chinese and Hong Kong shares led the regional rally with 2-3% gains.  The Nikkei gapped higher for the third time in six sessions, and the first two were followed by lower gaps. 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: A Vicious Cycle Grips Markets

2019-08-19

by

2019-08-19

The capital markets are in their own doom loop. Poor data from Germany and China, coupled with the escalation of the US-China trade dispute and rising tensions in Hong Kong spur concerns about the risks of a global recession. Interest rates are driven lower, and curves flatten or go inverted, spurring more concern about the outlook. The problem is that it is not clear how this vicious cycle ends.

Read More »