Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, January 11: Dollar Comes Back Bid

2017-01-11

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2017-01-11

FX Performance, January 11 2017 Movers and Shakers
The pound has seen a sharp fall following the interview that Theresa May gave with Sky news on Sunday although there has been a small rebound this afternoon. GBP CHF exchange rates are hovering around 1.2350 for this pair.

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Great Graphic: Real Rates in US are Elevated

2017-01-11

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2017-01-11

The US 10-year yield fell briefly below 1.32% last July. The yield slowly rose to reach 1.80% in mid-October. The day after the election, the yield initially slipped to almost 1.71%. This was a bit of a miscue, and the yield rose sharply to hit almost 2.64% the day after the FOMC hiked rates for the second time in the cycle on December 14. The yield backed off to hit 2.33% at the end of last week.

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FX Daily, January 10: Positioning more than Fundamentals Give Traders Pause

2017-01-10

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2017-01-10

FX Performance, January 10 2017 Movers and Shakers
After strong moves to start the year, the capital markets continue to consolidate. Many observers are suggesting a fundamental narrative behind the loss of momentum, but in discussions with clients and other market participants, it seems as if the main source of caution is coming from an understanding of market positioning rather than a reevaluation of the macro drivers.

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The Better Way: Backing into Smoot-Hawley and Repeating the Flaws of PPP

2017-01-10

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2017-01-10

Part of the US Republican tax reforms call for a border adjustment. It will tax imports fully and not exports. This will likely be challenged at the WTO. Many economists say the dollar will automatically appreciate by 20%. WE are bullish the dollar but skeptical of the logic here.

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FX Daily, January 09: Sterling Pounded by May’s Hard Brexit

2017-01-09

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2017-01-09

Thor
Sterling has stolen the US dollar's spotlight. The issue facing market participants was if the rise in hourly earnings reported as part of the pre-weekend release of US December jobs data was sufficient to end the dollar's downside correction. Instead, May's comments over the weekend indicating not just a desire but strategic thrust to abandon the single market in exchange for regaining control over immigration and not being subject to the...

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields

2017-01-09

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2017-01-09

Rushmore
Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues.

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FX Weekly Review, January 02 – 07: Is the corrective phase of the dollar over?

2017-01-08

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2017-01-08

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
The lack of full participation and the resulting choppy conditions may have obscured the signal from the capital markets. That signal we think was one of correction since shortly after the Fed's rate hike in id-December. The question now, after the US employment data showed continued labor market strength and that earnings improvement remains intact, is whether the corrective phase is over.

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US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

2017-01-07

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2017-01-07

The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area.

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Cool Video: CNBC’s Power Lunch-China and Mexico

2017-01-07

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2017-01-07

Marc Chandler - Bloomberg
Two central banks were particularly active today. Chinese officials appear to be engineering short squeeze that has lifted the yuan 1.2% over the past two sessions. While this does not sound like much, it is a record two-day move, for the still closely managed currency.

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FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

FX Performance, January 06 2017 Movers and Shakers
I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the direction on the Franc and clients looking to exchange pounds into Francs or move Francs back to the UK should be considering the path ahead.

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A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM lend credence to our fear of a disappointing national jobs report. Economists estimate only a small part of the manufacturing jobs loss can be traced to trade policy. 19 states increased min wage at the start of the year, but the impact on the nation's average weekly earnings will likely be too small to detect.

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

FX Performance, January 05 2017 Movers and Shakers
There are two main developments. First, the high degree of uncertainty expressed in the FOMC minutes and the repeated references to the strong dollar spurred a wave of dollar selling. The dollar retreated in Asia, but European participants saw the pullback as a new buying opportunity.

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FX Daily, January 04: Consolidation in Capital Markets

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

FX Performance, January 04 2017 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates have jumped during the first official day of trading in 2017, with the pair hitting 1.2657 at today’s high. The Pound gained support this morning following positive UK Manufacturing data, which came in well above market expectation. This increased market confidence in the UK economy and the Pound has ultimately benefited as a result, gaining a cent on the CHF.

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A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures

2017-01-04

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2017-01-04

Official Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency
Overall reserve holdings hardly changed in Q3. China continues to bleed its reserves from unallocated to allocated. Sterling's share of new reserves warns it may be losing some allure.

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FX Daily, January 03: Dollar-Bloc and Sterling Advance, while Euro and Yen Slip

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

FX Performance, January 03 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is mixed. After a soft start in Asia, where Tokyo markets were closed, the dollar recovered smartly against the euro and yen. The dollar-bloc and sterling are firmer. Sterling's earlier losses were recouped following news that the manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.1, its highest since June 2014.

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FX Weekly Preview: What You Should Know to Start the First Week of 2017

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

universalgod
Data has already been reported. Trends reversed in the last two weeks. US jobs data may disappoint. It will take a few more weeks to lift some of the uncertainty hanging over the markets.

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FX Weekly Review, December 26 – 30: Dollar Correction Poised to Continue

2017-01-02

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2017-01-02

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, December 30
The technical condition of the US dollar, which has been advancing through most of the Q4 16, has been deteriorating This led us to anticipate a consolidative or corrective phase.

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FX Daily, December 30: Dollar Slips into Year End

2016-12-30

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2016-12-30

New Year
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions.

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FX Daily, December 29: Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

2016-12-29

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2016-12-29

FX Performance, December 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.

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Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

2016-12-28

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2016-12-28

Marc Chandler
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.

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