Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, June 07: Markets Mark Time Ahead of Tomorrow

2017-06-07

by

2017-06-07

Tomorrow may be the most important day of the quarter for investors. The ECB meets. The UK goes to the polls. Former FBI Comey testifies. Ahead of these significant events, the global capital markets are mostly quiet, with some pockets of activity.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 06: Yen Propelled Higher

2017-06-06

by

2017-06-06

The week was supposed to be dominated by the UK election and the ECB meeting, but the yen is stealing the show in the first part of the week. The US dollar has been sold through JPY110 for the first time since late April. The euro has fallen from JPY125.30 before the weekend to JPY123.25 today.

Read More »

Euro Shrugs off European Banking Woes

2017-06-06

by

2017-06-06

Spain's Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Don’t be Misled by Sterling Stability, Investors are Concerned

2017-06-06

by

2017-06-06

The Great Graphic, created on Bloomberg, shows the options skew (three-month 25 delta risk reversal) in the white line, and sterling is the yellow line. The takeaway is that the market appears to be more nervous than the relatively firm sterling in the spot market suggests. Typically, one might expect those with sterling exposure to sell calls (and receive funds) rather than buy puts (new expenditure).

Read More »

FX Daily, June 05: US Dollar Starts Important Week Mostly Stable to Higher

2017-06-05

by

2017-06-05

The US dollar is beginning what promises to be an important week on a steady to firmer note against most of the major currencies. It is a holiday in parts of Europe (e.g.,m Germany and Switzerland). Although excitement is not until Thursday's ECB meeting, UK election, and the testimony of former US FBI Director Comey, there are several developments today to note.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: ECB Meeting and UK Election Key Drivers in Week Ahead

2017-06-05

by

2017-06-05

ECB may take a baby step toward the exit of extraordinary monetary policy by confirming rates are unlikely to be cut further and the risks are roughly balanced. UK election is coming down to the wire. In the US, former FBI director Comey is set to testify, and leaks of two Fed appointments overshadow mostly second-tier economic data.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Iron Ore and the Australian Dollar

2017-06-04

by

2017-06-04

This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows the correlation between the price of iron ore and the Australian dollar on a rolling 60-day basis over the past year. The correlation is a little more than 0.81. The relationship is the tightest since last August. This is purely directional.

Read More »

Great Graphic: US Rate Curve and the Euro

2017-06-03

by

2017-06-03

This Great Graphic was created on Bloomberg. It shows two times series. The yellow line and the left-hand scale show the euro's exchange rate against the dollar for the past year. The white line depicts the spread between the US two-year and 10-year yield.

Read More »

Drop in the US Unemployment Rate Not Sufficient to Mask Disappointing Report

2017-06-02

by

2017-06-02

Poor jobs growth won't challenge June hike expectations but September and balance sheet. Little positive in today's report. Drop in unemployment explained by drop in participation rate. Trade deficit was larger than expected, which may point to slower Q2 growth.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 02: Dollar Marks Time Ahead of US Jobs Report

2017-06-02

by

2017-06-02

The foreign exchange market is becalmed, leaving the US dollar narrowly mixed. The euro has been confined to less than a 20-pip range through the Asian session and most of the European morning. The news stream is light. The US withdrawal from the Paris Accord may have garnered the headlines, but as a market force, it is difficult to detect the immediate impact.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 01: Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels, Sterling Struggles

2017-06-01

by

2017-06-01

The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies. It is consolidating yesterday's losses more than staging much of a recovery. Even sterling, where a YouGov poll has the Tory lead at three percentage points, down from seven previously, is above yesterday's lows. On the other hand, even strong data from Japan did not drive the yen higher.

Read More »

The US and German Relationship

2017-05-31

by

2017-05-31

US and German relations may be strained, but this is not unprecedented. It has been fanned by Trump and Merkel's rhetoric. A European sphere of influence seems to have been the force pushing in that direction.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 31: Sterling Takes it On the Chin

2017-05-31

by

2017-05-31

Projections showing that the UK Tories could lose their outright majority in Parliament in next week's election spurred sterling sales, which snapped a two-day advance.  Polls at the end of last week showed a sharp narrowing of the contest, and this saw sterling shed 1.3% last Thursday and Friday. 

Read More »

What Happened Monday

2017-05-31

by

2017-05-31

No impact from the latest North Korean missile test. Polls suggest Tories still ahead for the June 8 election. Prospects of an Italian election this year weighed on Italian stocks and bonds.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 30: Mixed Dollar as Market Awaits Preliminary EMU CPI and US Jobs

2017-05-30

by

2017-05-30

With the backdrop of US interest rates unable to get much traction, despite the strong probability of another Fed rate hike in a couple of weeks, the third since last November election, the US dollar mixed today. The chief story today, though, is not the greenback but the euro. The euro is trading heavily for the fourth session.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Twin Peaks: US Economy and EMU Inflation

2017-05-29

by

2017-05-29

US economic data, culminating with the employment report, should be consistent with a re-acceleration of the world's largest economy after a typical slowdown in Q1. Eurozone price pressures likely eased considerably in May. For the UK economy, the bounce in April was a fluke, and gradual slowdown continues. Japanese investors have bought foreign bonds for three weeks in a row, which is the longest streak in six months.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-05-27

by

2017-05-27

Moody's downgraded China's rating from Aa3 to A1 with stable outlook. Reports suggest that the PBOC has informed local banks that it is changing the way it sets the daily fix. Moody's downgraded Hong Kong’s rating to Aa2 from Aa1 with stable outlook. Philippine President Duterte declared martial law on Mindanao island. Egypt's central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 200 bp. S&P moved the outlook on Bolivia’s BB rating from stable to negative....

Read More »

FX Daily, May 26: Anxiety Levels Rise Ahead of Weekend

2017-05-26

by

2017-05-26

The markets are unsettled. It is not so much in the magnitude of moves as the breadth of the move. The nearly 1% rally in gold is a tell, but also the inability of equity market to follow the lead of the US markets, where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ set new records. US yields are softer, and the yen is the strongest of the major currencies, up 0.7% against the greenback.

Read More »

Great Graphic: OIl and the S&P 500

2017-05-26

by

2017-05-26

S&P 500 Index, May 2017
The fluctuation of oil prices is often cited as an important factor driving equities. Our work shows that this is not always the case and that the correlation between the price of oil and the S&P 500 continues to ease.

Read More »