Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Daily, December 30: Dollar Slips into Year End

2016-12-30

by

2016-12-30

New Year
In exceptionally thin conditions that characterize the year-end markets, a reportedly computer-generated order lifted the euro from about $1.05 to a little more than $1.0650 in a few minutes early in the Asian sessions.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 29: Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

2016-12-29

by

2016-12-29

FX Performance, December 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.

Read More »

Cool Video: Double Feature on Bloomberg

2016-12-28

by

2016-12-28

Marc Chandler
I am finishing the year like I began it, on Bloomberg Television, talking about the dollar and Fed policy. Bloomberg has made two clips of my interview available.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 28: Short Note for Holiday Markets

2016-12-28

by

2016-12-28

FX Performance, December 28 2016 Movers and Shakers
Economic data: Japan stands out with industrial production in Nov rising 1.5%, the most in five months. It was a little less than expected, but the expectations for Dec (2%) and Jan (2.2%) are constructive.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Real Wages

2016-12-28

by

2016-12-28

Real Wages 2007 - 2015
This Great Graphic caught my eye. It was tweeted by Ninja Economics. Her point was about immigration. German had much higher immigration than the UK, but also saw real wage increase of nearly 14% in the 2007-2015 period, while real wages in the UK fell nearly 10.5%.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 27: Markets Becalmed in Wait-and-See Mode

2016-12-27

by

2016-12-27

Japan Construction Orders YoY, November 2016
As skeleton teams return to the trading desks in New York, the US dollar is largely where they left it at the end last week. Japanese markets were open yesterday, while UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Canadian markets are still closed today.

Read More »

FX Outlook 2017: Politics to Eclipse Economics

2016-12-26

by

2016-12-26

Economic Events: United Kingdom, Week December 26
Investors are familiar with a broad set of macroeconomic variables that often drive asset prices. Many are familiar with corporate balance sheets, price-earning ratios, free cash flow, Q-ratio, and the like.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 23: Markets Edge into Holiday Weekend

2016-12-23

by

2016-12-23

FX Performance, December 23 2016 Movers and Shakers
Asian shares trade heavily. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index ex-Japan fell 0.4%. It is the fourth lower close this week and brings the loss to 1.75% for the week. It is fallen in seven of the past nine weeks. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed on the session and is nursing a minor loss on the week and could snap a two-week advance.

Read More »

Where Do US Companies Hire Abroad?

2016-12-23

by

2016-12-23

High-wage economies of Canada, EU, Japan and Australia account for nearly half of US corporate employment abroad. And even in low-wage regions, the high-wage parts tend to draw more US employment. The new US administration may have second thoughts about pivot to Asia, but US companies may not.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 22: Mixed Dollar amid Light News as Investors Move to Sidelines

2016-12-22

by

2016-12-22

FX Performance, December 22 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates have dipped over the past week, as the markets start to slowdown ahead of the Christmas period. Market trends become harder to predict at this time of year, due to the fact there is less capital injected by investors. Less liquidity ultimately equals less stability and the Pound may be suffering due to investors pulling their funds away from it and into safer haven currencies such as the CHF.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 21: Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues

2016-12-21

by

2016-12-21

FX Performance, December 21, 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the holiday markets make for light turnover. Global equity markets are not finding much encouragement from the new record highs by the Dow Jones Industrials. There have been a few developments to note.

Read More »

You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

2016-12-21

by

2016-12-21

BISBCNR Index
Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 19: EUR/CHF Dives under 1.07

2016-12-19

by

2016-12-19

FX Performance, December 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
Once again a line in sand for the Swiss National Bank is broken. The EUR/CHF falls under 1.07. But trading algorithms are like this: When the EUR/USD is falling, then the EUR/CHF must follow. The SNB decided not to intervene any more at 1.07.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Twas the Week Before Christmas, Amidst Powerful Trends

2016-12-19

by

2016-12-19

Santas workshop
The Nikkei, the dollar-yen and 10 yr US yield have risen nine of the past 11 weeks. The Dollar Index and 2 yr US yields have risen while gold has sold off in eight of past 11 weeks. Issue in next two weeks, profit-taking or trend extension? Spoiler alert: I expect some profit-taking.

Read More »

BIS: A Paradigm Shift on Bond Yields?

2016-12-18

by

2016-12-18

Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then.

Read More »

Rising Trade Tensions

2016-12-17

by

2016-12-17

Trade
Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China's trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China's arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 16: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of the Weekend, Dollar Consolidates Gains

2016-12-16

by

2016-12-16

FX Performance, December 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
Some mild position squaring pressures are evident ahead of the weekend, and for many market participants the year is coming to an end. Outside of the BOJ meeting next week, the calendar turns light and markets are moving into holiday mode. The Dollar Index is seeing this week's gains trimmed, but it is up nearly 1.4% this week. Although the election has seen the dollar's gains accelerate, the current leg up began in early October. The Dollar...

Read More »

Fed Hikes, Sees Three More in 2017–A Year Ago it Saw Four in 2016

2016-12-16

by

2016-12-16

pulling
Biggest change is that Fed sees three instead of two hikes next year. Minor tweaks in the forecasts. Fiscal policy could raise the long-run growth potential, which would be a net good but not needed to reach full employment.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 15: Greenback Extends Gains on Back of Fed

2016-12-15

by

2016-12-15

FX Performance, December 15 2016 Movers and Shakers
Sterling has made steady gains against the CHF over the past month and although the spike has levelled this week, the Pound has certainly gained a foothold. Yesterday’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise their base rate from 0.25% to 0.5% did little to shift the value of GBP/CHF but with investors still digesting the outcome, we may yet find it still has an effect.

Read More »