Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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BIS: A Paradigm Shift on Bond Yields?

2016-12-18

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2016-12-18

Review of recent BIS report. US election spurred a substantial change in sentiment. Equity and bond market reactions are roughly similar to when Reagan was elected, with the dollar, at least initially, stronger than then.

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Rising Trade Tensions

2016-12-17

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2016-12-17

Trade
Obama Administration has taken a hardline against China's trade practices. Other countries are also resisting China's arguments that it is a market economy. Last week, US imposed anti-dumping duties on imported washing machines from China.

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FX Daily, December 16: Markets Turn Quiet Ahead of the Weekend, Dollar Consolidates Gains

2016-12-16

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2016-12-16

FX Performance, December 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
Some mild position squaring pressures are evident ahead of the weekend, and for many market participants the year is coming to an end. Outside of the BOJ meeting next week, the calendar turns light and markets are moving into holiday mode. The Dollar Index is seeing this week's gains trimmed, but it is up nearly 1.4% this week. Although the election has seen the dollar's gains accelerate, the current leg up began in early October. The Dollar...

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Fed Hikes, Sees Three More in 2017–A Year Ago it Saw Four in 2016

2016-12-16

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2016-12-16

pulling
Biggest change is that Fed sees three instead of two hikes next year. Minor tweaks in the forecasts. Fiscal policy could raise the long-run growth potential, which would be a net good but not needed to reach full employment.

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FX Daily, December 15: Greenback Extends Gains on Back of Fed

2016-12-15

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2016-12-15

FX Performance, December 15 2016 Movers and Shakers
Sterling has made steady gains against the CHF over the past month and although the spike has levelled this week, the Pound has certainly gained a foothold. Yesterday’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise their base rate from 0.25% to 0.5% did little to shift the value of GBP/CHF but with investors still digesting the outcome, we may yet find it still has an effect.

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Cool Video: Big Picture Dollar Outlook

2016-12-15

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2016-12-15

I had the privilege of joining Scarlet Fu and Joe Wisenthal on the set of What'd You Miss on Bloomberg TV yesterday afternoon. It was within a couple of hours of the second Fed rate hike in a decade. The dollar rallied.

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FX Daily, December 14: Markets Quietly Edge into FOMC Meeting

2016-12-14

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2016-12-14

FX Performance, December 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Pound is entering mid-December in the same fashion it begun the month after having a very strong November as well. After being buoyed by Donald Trump’s victory and the High Courts ruling that parliamentary approval is needed before invoking Article 50, the Pound has been boosted further after economic data has also impressed, with yesterday being a good example of this.

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FX Daily, December 13: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience

2016-12-13

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2016-12-13

FX Performance, December 13 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. The dollar finished yesterday's North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited. After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. Initial potential seemed to extend toward JPY114.30, but dollar buyers reemerged near JPY114.75, and it rose back the middle of the two-day range...

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Busy Week for the UK

2016-12-13

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2016-12-13

The UK reports inflation, employment and retail sales this week. The BOE meets but will keep rates steady. The US 2-year premium over the UK is the highest since at least 1992 today.

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FX Daily, December 12: Dollar and Yen Trade Lower to Start the Week

2016-12-12

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2016-12-12

FX Performance, December 12 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower. The tone is largely consolidative, and the foreign exchange market is not main focus today. Instead, the OPEC-non-OPEC agreement before the weekend is arguably the key driver today. Oil prices are up 4.5%-4.8%, lifting bond yields and supporting oil producers' currencies, like the Norwegian krone, Canadian dollar, the Russian ruble and Mexican peso.

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FX Weekly Preview: What the FOMC Says may be More Important than What it Does

2016-12-12

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2016-12-12

Economic Events: Eurozone, Week December 12
FOMC meeting is the last highlight of the year. OPEC and non-OPEC producers strike a deal: optics good and that can lift prices further in near term. Italy will have a new Prime Minister, the fourth unelected PM.

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FX Daily, December 09: Euro Chopped Lower before Stabilizing

2016-12-09

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2016-12-09

FX Performance, December 09 2016 Movers and Shakers
The euro has stabilized after extending yesterday's ECB-driven losses. The euro's drop yesterday was the largest since the UK referendum to leave the EU. Ahead of the weekend, there may be some room for additional corrective upticks, but they will likely be limited, with the $1.0650 area offering initial resistance. In the larger picture, this week's range, roughly $1.05 to $1.0850 likely will confine the price action for the remainder of the...

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Great Graphic: Another Look at the Reproduction Problem

2016-12-09

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2016-12-09

Change of making more money than your parents if you were
In order for a society to be sustained social relations have to be reproduced. Yet now neither the middle class nor capital are able to reproduce themselves. This may be the single greatest challenge our society faces.

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FX Daily, December 08: Dollar Heavy into ECB

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

FX Performance, December 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The ECB prolonged its bond purchases, which came unexpected for markets. Consequently the EUR/CHF lost nearly half of its big gains that it registered in the beginning of the week. The ECB expects lower inflation for longer, which makes the life for the SNB harder for longer.

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ECB: Dovish Taper or Hawkish Ease?

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Mario Draghi
Purchases increased for longer but at a lower level; overall, more purchases than anticipated. Euro spiked higher on the announcement, but has subsequently dropped 2 cents. Lower inflation forecast for 2019 shows scope for a further extension.

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Cool Video: Discussing the ECB on Bloomberg TV

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

Marc Chandler
Tired of reading what analysts are saying? Here is a 4.3 minute video clip of my discussion earlier today on Bloomberg TV about the outlook for tomorrow's ECB meeting. The discussion covers various aspects of the ECB's decision.

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ECB and the Future of QE

2016-12-08

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2016-12-08

ECB will likely extend asset purchases in full. It may modify the rules by which it buys securities. It may adjust the rules of engagement for its securities lending program.

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FX Daily, December 07: Greenback is Broadly Steady While Sterling Slides

2016-12-07

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2016-12-07

FX Performance, December 07 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception, losing about 0.75% to trade at three-day lows. It was on the defensive in early European turnover but got the run pulled from beneath by the unexpectedly poor data. UK industrial output fell by 1.3% in October. The median forecast was for a small increase.

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Greek Bonds may Soon be Included in ECB Purchases

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

The ECB accepts Greek bonds as collateral but does not include them in its asset purchases. A new staff-level agreement by the end of the year could change that. Finance ministers imply that Greece's debt is sustainable, but the IMF disagrees.

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FX Daily, December 06: You Can Almost Hear a Pin Drop

2016-12-06

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2016-12-06

FX Performance, December 06 2016 Movers and Shakers
The foreign exchange market is quiet. Ranges are narrow, with the US dollar mostly consolidating against the major currencies. Given the push lower yesterday, the shallowness of its recovery warns of the greenback's downside correction after strong gains last month may not be complete.

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