by Lance Roberts
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| Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. #Semiconductors #AIStocks #Nvidia #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks |
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4-14-26 This Is NOT A New Bull Market — Be Careful
2026-04-14
The market $SPX rally looks constructive, with a rising 200-day moving average, improving breadth, and stable earnings, but it remains a fragile setup.
We haven’t seen the kind of deterioration that typically leads to new lows, yet key risks remain.
If breadth weakens, earnings estimates get cut, or #crudeoil prices stay elevated, the downside could reopen quickly.
The Fed is likely stuck, and geopolitical uncertainty adds another layer of risk.
History shows rallies like this can fail before a true bottom forms.
This is not a confirmed bull market; it’s a risk management environment. Keep that in mind.
📺Full episode:
Catch Lance Roberts daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
2-26-26 Software Stocks: Steal or Zero
2026-02-26
Is AI killing software stocks — or creating the buying opportunity of the decade?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz review: Since peaking in September 2025, the software ETF (IGV) has crashed 30% while semiconductors (SMH) surged 30% and broad tech stayed flat. The market is pricing in a "SaaSpocalypse" — the idea that generative AI will make traditional SaaS companies obsolete. But is that narrative right?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo
0:00 – INTRO
0:49 – National Chili Day & Demise of Whataburger
3:04 – Nvidia & SalesForce Report
7:25 – Markets Are "Stable"
12:17 – Blizzards & Chili
13:21 – The Incredible
1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong
2026-01-08
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as “reserve management,” the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks.
We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index
Fed Challenges: Bill Dudley’s Take On 2026
2026-01-08
Bill Dudley, a respected economist and President of the New York Fed during the Financial Crisis, penned a Bloomberg editorial outlining six challenges facing the Fed in 2026. Given his deep background in economics and intimate knowledge of the Fed, it’s worth providing a brief summary of his views. Independence is at the top of …
1-6-26 The Most Dangerous Risk Is The One No One Sees
2026-01-06
Markets don’t crash on risks everyone is watching—they’re already priced in and hedged.
In this Short video, Lance Roberts explains why the real danger is an unexpected shock that forces earnings lower and triggers a rapid repricing of valuations.
📺Full episode: -Z7mJI
Catch Lance daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
Full Market Cycles: Half Bull and Half Bear
2025-11-17
Last week, we discussed the importance of “math” as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding “full market cycles.” To wit: “The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up. The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …
11-14-25 Open Enrollment Traps to Avoid This Year
2025-11-14
11-14-25 Open Enrollment Traps to Avoid This Year
Open Enrollment season is here—and it’s one of the most overlooked financial opportunities employees have all year. In this episode, we break down the biggest mistakes people make when reviewing their employer benefits and how to approach your plan as if you were a brand-new hire.
Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty tackle the smart way to choose health insurance, whether young workers really need life insurance, and which “it’ll never happen to me” benefits can make or break your financial stability. We’ll also explore where employer benefits are heading in 2025—what companies are offering, what employees actually want, and how to make sure you’re getting the most value out of your compensation package.
Whether you’re picking between an
11-11-25 A Daily Dose Of Charts & Graphs
2025-11-11
In this short video, I cover the record $1.2T in U.S. buybacks, flat profit margins outside tech, and Europe’s lagging data capacity.
I also touch on tightening liquidity, rising debt-fueled AI investment, and echoes of the 1990s boom that point to hidden risks beneath the surface — everything you need in one visual market update.
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