by Lance Roberts
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| Semiconductor stocks continue to lead the market higher as the AI boom drives massive capital spending, soaring valuations, and relentless momentum in names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC. But are investors witnessing the next great technology revolution, or the early stages of another market bubble? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine the semiconductor trade from both sides: Explosive AI demand, data center growth, and earnings momentum versus stretched valuations, narrowing market breadth, and growing concentration risk inside the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. #Semiconductors #AIStocks #Nvidia #StockMarket #TechnologyStocks |
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S&P 500 Outlook: The 8.2% Rally & What Comes Next.
2026-04-13
Over the last few weeks, we have published real-time market commentary as the correction proceeded. The goal was to help investors navigate the more dire outcomes promoted on social media. A largely unexpected outcome was that the S&P 500 outlook changed dramatically in a matter of days. After five consecutive weeks of decline driven by …
Ceasefire Rally: Can The Market Hold New Support
2026-04-09
Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable …
Our Take On Tariffs
2026-02-24
To address the many emails we received, we present our take on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling. First, President Trump has multiple ways he can implement trade restrictions beyond what the Supreme Court ruled against. In fact, he implemented a 150-day 15% global tariff after the court’s ruling. As we share below, the effective tariff …
2-20-26 Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions
2026-02-20
Some 401(k) plans let you put in extra after-tax money and move it into a Roth so it can grow tax-free—but you have to know what your plan allows. Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty share 10 questions to ask your 401(k) provider so you don’t miss it.
Rich & Jonathan also explain a new bill that would make the $6,000 senior deduction permanent. It’s not the same as “no tax on Social Security” for everyone—and the Social Security tax rules still depend on income thresholds that haven’t kept up with inflation.
Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan McCarty, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
0:00 – INTRO
0:20 – Mancards & Oven Replacements
3:21 – OBBA & Larger Tax Refunds
10:16 – The $6k Senior Tax
1-5-26 2026 Market Outlook: Bullish Momentum, Valuation Risks, and What Comes Next
2026-01-05
Markets closed 2025 with strong gains, but the path forward into 2026 is far more nuanced than headline optimism suggests.
Lance Roberts reviews what drove 2025’s market performance, why the Santa Claus Rally failed, and how shifting inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and valuation levels are shaping market outlooks for 2026.How can investors navigate the New Year with realistic expectations, disciplined risk management, and diversified positioning, recognizing that returns may come with higher volatility than recent years.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – Maduro Impact on Oil; What’s Next for New Year?
4:42 – No Santa Rally!
9:58 – What to Expect in 2026
14:13 – Base Portfolio Management in Terms of a Range of Outcomes
20:02 – The Risk of Disappointment
24:00 – Full Time
YTD Returns Highlight a Narrow Market
2025-12-31
YTD returns across major U.S. asset classes continue to reflect a highly concentrated market. The Finviz chart below does a nice job illustrating YTD returns across a wide array of futures contracts. Large-caps dominate YTD equity returns, while small- and mid-cap stocks lag amid tighter financial conditions and slower earnings growth. Outside of equities, YTD …
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