Tag Archive: yuan

A Clear Anchor

2017-09-21

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2017-09-21

China Fixed Asses Investment, 2014 - 2016
All the way back in January I calculated the total size of China’s 2016 fiscal “stimulus.” Starting in January 2016, authorities conducted what was an enormous spending program. As it had twice before, the government directed increased “investment” from State-owned Enterprises (SOE). By my back-of-the-envelope numbers, the scale of this fiscal side program was about RMB 1.45 trillion, or nearly 2% of GDP

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FX Daily, September 07: ECB Focus for Sure, but not Only Game in Town

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

The US dollar is trading broadly lower. The ECB meeting looms large. Many, like ourselves, expected that when Draghi said in July that the asset purchases would be revisited in the fall, it to meant after the summer recess, not a legalistic definition of when fall begins. Still, there have been some reports, citing unnamed sources close to the ECB, that have played down such expectations, and warn a decision on next year’s intentions may not be...

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Bitcoin Fork, Hyped ICOs – Immutable Gold and Silver

2017-08-16

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2017-08-16

Latest developments show risks in crypto currencies. Confusion as bitcoin may split tomorrow. SEC stepped into express concern over ICOs. ICOs have so far raised $1.2 billion in 2017. ICOs preying on lack of understanding from investors. Physical gold not vulnerable to technological risk. Beauty and safety in simplicity of gold and silver.

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The ‘Dollar’ Devil Shows Itself Again In China

2017-06-21

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2017-06-21

China Treasury Bond Curve
Some economic and financial conditions leave a yield curve as a more complex affair.Then there are others that are incredibly simple.The UST yield curve is the former, while right now the Chinese Treasury curve is the latter.

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PBoC: Mechanical Tightening PBoC is China Central Bank

2017-04-28

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2017-04-28

PBOC Balance Sheet, March 2011 - March 2017
The mainstream narrative as it relates to Chinese money is “tightening.” Having survived the economic downturn last year, we are to believe that the PBOC is once again on bubble duty. They raised their reverse repo rates, considered to be their policy benchmarks, three times up to mid-March.

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To The Asian ‘Dollar’, And Then What?

2017-04-27

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2017-04-27

TIC - US Banking Data Claims On Foreigners, February 1979 - February 2017
The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property).

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FX Daily, April 14: Holiday Markets Remain on Edge

2017-04-14

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2017-04-14

The holiday-induced calm in the capital markets conceals a high degree of anxiety. The investment climate has been challenged by heightened geopolitical risk and unusual complaints about the US dollar's strength from the sitting US President. While sending an "armada" toward the Korean peninsula, the US ordered a missile strike against Syria in retaliation for the use of chemical weapons and dropped the largest bomb in the world on Afghanistan.

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FX Daily, April 13: Greenback Stabilizes After Trump Induced Slide

2017-04-13

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2017-04-13

The US dollar slid after US President Trump complained about its strength. The sell-off extended into early Asian activity, before stabilizing. It is mixed in late morning European turnover, which is already lightening up due to the extended Easter holiday.

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FX Daily, March 31: Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

2017-03-31

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2017-03-31

The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year. The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.

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TIC Analysis of Selling

2017-03-25

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2017-03-25

When the Treasury Department released its Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December, what was a somewhat obscure report suddenly found mainstream attention. Private foreign investors had sold tens of billions in US securities primarily US Treasury bonds and notes which the media then made into some kind of warning to then-incoming President Trump. It was supposed to be a big deal, the kind of rebuke reserved for disreputable leaders of...

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SNB Spent $68 Billion On Currency Manipulation In 2016

2017-03-24

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2017-03-24

SNB Intervention, 2010 - 2017
While Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with China for manipulating its currency, he appears to have recently figured out that over the past 2 years Beijing has been spending hundreds of billions in dollar to strengthen, not weaken, the Yuan and to halt the ~$1 trillion in capital flight from China.

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Non-Randomly Surveying RMB

2017-03-23

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2017-03-23

PBOC RMB Liquidity Management 2014-2017
China’s central bank, unlike other central banks, is constantly active almost never resting. Because it is always in motion, the PBOC can seem to be “adding” liquidity at the very same time it might be “draining” it. Its specific actions should never be interpreted as standalone procedures related solely to some unknown policy stance. That is particularly true given that we know what their stance is and has been – neutral.

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Status of US Pivot To Asia

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

AsiaPivot
Pivot still taking place, but without TPP, more militaristic. President Trump seems a little less confrontational toward China. China is unlikely to be cited as a currency manipulator in next month's Treasury report.

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Pressure, Sure, But From Where?

2017-03-22

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2017-03-22

Belly of the Curve Gone Flat 2009-2017
It may just be that in life you have to get used to disappointment. Though not for lack of trying, I have spent a great deal of time over the years intending to piece together exactly what happened on days like October 15, 2014. The official explanation is an obvious whitewash, one so haphazard that I doubt it will ever be referred to again outside of ridicule.

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China’s NPC Ends with New Initiatives

2017-03-15

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2017-03-15

China will make its mainland bond market more accessible. As China's portfolio of patents grows it will likely become more protective of others' intellectual property rights. PRC President Xi will likely visit US President Trump early next month.

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Trump Administration Modifying Stance on Way to G20

2017-03-14

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2017-03-14

Confrontation with China has been dialed down. Criticism of the Fed has been walked back. There is less talk about the dollar. Employment data has been embraced.

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China And Reserves, A Straightforward Process Unnecessarily Made Into A Riddle

2017-03-08

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2017-03-08

China Official Foreign Exchange 2015-2017
The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of the forex timepiece.

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FX Daily, March 07: Greenback Continues to Recover from the Late Pre-Weekend Slide

2017-03-07

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2017-03-07

The US dollar has continued to recover from the slide on what still largely appears to have been a buy the rumor sell the fact response to Yellen's speech just before last weekend. Yellen was the last of around 11 Fed officials that spoke last week, and nearly all but Bullard signaled readiness to hike rates at next month's meeting.

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Switzerland’s Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tons In December

2017-01-28

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2017-01-28

Silk Road Gold Demand, India Imports, Turkey Imports, Russian Reserves, China SGE Withdrawals
Switzerland's Gold Exports To China Surge To 158 Tonnes In December. Switzerland's gold bullion exports to China saw a huge jump in December, climbing to 158 tons versus a much lower 30.6 tons in November - a jump of 416%.

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