Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, August 23: Dollar Rebounds

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

After correcting lower since the middle of last week, and pushed faster if not further by President Trump's comments, the US dollar is rebounding against most of the major and emerging market currencies today. After an initial wobble on the back of the FOMC minutes, the greenback's recovery began in earnest.

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Three Things that may Disappoint Investors

2018-08-23

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2018-08-23

There are three areas that we suspect that many investors are vulnerable to disappointment. NAFTA, trade talks with China, and Powell speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. With problems elsewhere, the Trump Administration has been playing up the likelihood of an agreement as early as today with Mexico, which would be used, apparently to deliver a fait accompli to Canada.

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FX Daily, August 22: Markets Take US Political Developments in Stride

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

News that President Trump's personal lawyer claimed he was instructed by the candidate to commit a federal crime and, separately, his the former campaign manager was found guilty on eight counts is hardly impacting the global capital markets.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV Clip-Dollar Developments

2018-08-22

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2018-08-22

Bloomberg Cool Video
The US dollar was sliding as I joined Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on the Bloomberg Markets show. I tried making the case, as I have in recent posts, that the dollar's rally in the first half of the month had left it over-extended. Most of the major currencies were outside of their Bollinger Bands a week ago and had begun correcting since August 15.

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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders Top in Dollar Index

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

This Great Graphic depicts what appears to be a head and shoulders top in the hourly bar chart of the Dollar Index. The neckline is found near 96.00 and rotating the pattern along it produces a measuring objective near 95.00. The bearish pattern was formed in the last few days, and the Dollar Index was resting near the neckline before Trump's comments gave it the push.

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FX Daily, August 21: Trump Comments Hit Dollar, Little Impact on Rates

2018-08-21

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2018-08-21

The US dollar is broadly lower following President Trump's comments yesterday, criticising Fed policy and reiterating his previously made claim that China and the EU are manipulating their currencies. We suggested that last week's presidential tweet that identified strong capital inflows into the US may not have been written by President Trump.

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FX Daily, August 20: Greenback Consolidates Pre-Weekend Pullback in Quiet Turnover

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

The US dollar is slightly firmer against most of the major currencies, as the light participation and lack of fresh news see a consolidative tone emerge after the pullback at the end of last week. Although markets in Turkey are closed for a nearly week-long holiday, it has not prevented the lira from weakening. After closing a little below TRY6.02 before the weekend, the greenback has moved to TRY6.15 in the European morning.

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FX Weekly Preview: Five Traps in the Week Ahead

2018-08-20

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2018-08-20

Officials have taken steps to make it more difficult and more expensive to short the lira, but that did not prevent a 5% slide ahead of the weekend. There is no interest rate, within reason, that can compensate for such currency risk.

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Capital Flocks to the US

2018-08-19

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2018-08-19

The US policy mix gets a privileged place in our understanding of what is the dollar. Tighter monetary policy and looser fiscal policy could be the closest thing to an elixir for currencies.  It is the policy mix that the US is pursuing.  

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FX Daily, August 17: Dollar Limps into the Weekend

2018-08-17

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2018-08-17

The US dollar is trading heavily against most of the world's currencies today.  The main exceptions come from the emerging markets where the Turkish lira, Russian ruble, and Mexican peso are the chief exceptions, and their losses are modest.  This week's dollar gains are being pared in largely corrective activity and amid a light news stream.  The threat of more sanctions on Turkey if it does not release the American pastor is helping the...

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Great Graphic JPY Struggles at Trendline

2018-08-16

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2018-08-16

This Great Graphic is a weekly bar chart of the dollar-yen exchange rate.  It shows a three-year downtrend line (white line).  The US dollar had popped above it last month, but this proved premature and has not closed about it for a month.  The trendline is found near JPY111.55 now.

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FX Daily, August 15: Lira Rallies on Cut in Swaps, but Fails to Dent Dollar Demand

2018-08-15

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2018-08-15

The Turkish lira is extending yesterday's recovery today on the back of actions by officials that are aimed at limiting foreign access to the lira to short. Without introducing new capital controls, regulators halved the amount of swap transactions banks can do to 25% of shareholder equity. This is meant to make it more difficult to access lira in the offshore swaps market, which is an important channel.

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FX Daily, August 14: Brief Respite but Little Relief

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Corrective pressures grip the capital markets today, helped by the easing of the selling pressure on Turkey, but its more a respite than a relief as no new policy initiatives are behind the lira's upticks. The implication of this is that it is unlikely to last. In fact, the dollar's low in early Europe a just above TRY6.41 after trading a little above TRY7.23 yesterday may be about the most that can reasonably be expected.

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Great Graphic: Possible Head and Shoulders Top in Euro

2018-08-14

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2018-08-14

Euro BGN Currency
The euro appears to have carved out head and shoulder top. As this Great Graphic depicts, the euro was sold through the neckline at the end of last week and is 1% below it today. It is not unusual for the neckline to be retested. It is found near $1.15. It also dovetails with our near-term caution given that the euro is likely to close below its Bollinger Band for the second consecutive session (~$1.1440).

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FX Daily, August 13: Turkey Drives Risk-Off, but Pressure Abating

2018-08-13

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2018-08-13

The failure of Turkey to grab the bull by the horns, so to speak, and come to grips with the situation saw the dollar soar above TRY7.23(from TRY6.43 at the end of last week) and to ZAR15.55 (from ZAR14.09). The Mexican peso, the strongest currency this year, and which has been partially protected by prospects of a new NAFTA agreement has suffered as well.

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The Yin and Yang of the US-China Relationship

2018-08-11

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2018-08-11

Chimerica always seemed like an oversimplification of a complex and dialectic relationship between the US and China.  However, it did express an underlying truth, that China's rise over the last 40 years has been predicated on Deng Xiaoping's political and economic reforms and, importantly, the world of free-trade (a reduction in tariff barriers to trade) promoted by the United States.  

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FX Daily, August 10: The Dollar Muscles Higher as Turkey Melts Down

2018-08-10

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2018-08-10

The US dollar has surged. The main impetus comes from the dramatic slide in the Turkish lira. After moving above TRY5.0 yesterday, it reached TRY6.30 today before stabilizing a little below TRY6.0 as the European morning progressed. The trigger seemed to be the lack of credibility of the government's response as investors await officials to elaborate on the outline of the "new economic model" provided yesterday.

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FX Daily, August 09: Sterling Remains Under Pressure, while the Greenback Firms Broadly

2018-08-09

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2018-08-09

The global capital markets are mostly quiet. US sanctions on Turkey and Russia are pressuring their respective currencies, and the New Zealand dollar has slumped nearly 1.5% on the back of a dovish hold by the central bank. The Kiwi is at 2.5-year lows near $0.6650.

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FX Daily, August 08: Sterling Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way, While Dollar and Yen Catch a Bid

2018-08-08

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2018-08-08

Fears that the UK could leave the EU in a little over six months without an agreement continues to drag sterling lower. Recall that over the weekend, the UK's International Trade Minister Fox suggested there was a 60% chance of a no-deal Brexit.

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FX Daily, August 07: Turn Around Tuesday for the Greenback

2018-08-07

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2018-08-07

The US dollar is pulling back today after yesterday's advance. All the major currencies are higher and even the Turkish lira, which plunged nearly 5% yesterday to cap a six-day slide, is trading firmer today ([email protected]). The dollar's losses are modest and appear corrective in nature.

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