Tag Archive: U.S. Dollar Index

FX Weekly Review, April 17 – 22: Dollar Technicals Trying to Turn, but…

2017-04-23

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22

While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-04-21

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-04-21

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and his proxies were quick to take credit but unfortunately for the new...

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FX Weekly Review, April 10-14: Swiss Franc loses against the Yen, but wins against Dollar

2017-04-16

by George Dorgan

2017-04-16

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01

Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but - compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen - it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions.

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Gold – An Overview of Macroeconomic Price Drivers

2017-04-13

by Pater Tenebrarum

2017-04-13

stock-to-flow ratios of gold and silver compared

Fundamental Analysis of Gold. As we often point out in these pages, even though gold is currently not the generally used medium of exchange, its monetary characteristics continue to be the main basis for its valuation. Thus, analysis of the gold market requires a different approach from that employed in the analysis of industrial commodities (or more generally, goods that are primarily bought and sold for their use value).

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-04-11

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-04-11

It is hard not to notice that the chart above has a lot less red in it than it has in some time. That is true of the month to month data as well as the year over year changes. There has been a widely reported gap between so called soft data – surveys and polls – and the hard data – actual economic activity reports. Bulls say the gap is there because the soft data always leads the hard data.

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FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

2017-04-10

by George Dorgan

2017-04-10

The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of...

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

by George Dorgan

2017-04-02

Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

by George Dorgan

2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m

In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

by George Dorgan

2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18

The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

by George Dorgan

2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11

The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

2017-03-05

by George Dorgan

2017-03-05

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04

The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review

2017-03-05

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-03-05

Economic Reports Scorecard. The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher.

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