Tag Archive: $TLT

FX Daily, September 18: More Thoughts from Berlin

2017-09-18

by

2017-09-18

The unexpected weakness in US retail sales and industrial production reported before the weekend did not prevent US yields and stocks from rising.  Asia followed suit, and with Japanese markets closed, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rallied a little more than 1%, the largest gain in two months.  Of note, foreigners returned to the Korean stock market, buying about $260 mln today, which cuts the month's liquidation in half.  The Kospi rallied 1.3%...

Read More »

FX Daily, September 13: Sterling Shines While Euro Stalls in Front of $1.20

2017-09-13

by

2017-09-13

The next leg of the business trip takes me to Frankfurt. Sporadic updates will continue. We have been identifying the $1.3430 area is a reasonable technical target for sterling. It represents the 50% retracement of sterling's losses since the day of the referendum June 2016 when it briefly traded $1.50. Also helping sterling is the unwinding of short cross positions against the euro.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 12: Dollar Sports Heavier Tone as Yesterday’s Bounce Runs out of Steam

2017-09-12

by

2017-09-12

The sporadic updates continue while I am on a two-week business trip. Now in Barcelona, participating in TradeTech FX Europe. The euro advanced yesterday from NOK9.30 to NOK9.40. It is consolidating in a tight range today. The election results may have been a bit closer than expected, but the weight on the krone yesterday seemed to stem more from the unexpectedly soft inflation report.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 06: Wake Me up when September Ends

2017-09-06

by

2017-09-06

The US dollar fell to new lows since mid-2015 against the Canadian dollar yesterday. It is flattish today as the market awaits the central bank's decision. We are concerned that given the strong performance and market positioning, a rate hike could spur "buy the rumor, sell the fact" activity. Alternatively, a disappointment if the Bank does not hike could also lead to some Canadian dollar sales.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 29: Dollar Losses Accelerate After North Korea Sends Missile over Japan

2017-08-29

by

2017-08-29

A brief period of quiet, which some may have confused with a change in posture, North Korea followed up the weekend's test of three ballistic missiles with what appears to have been an intermediate missile that flew over Japan. South Korea responded with its own symbolic display of force by dropping bombs by the DMZ.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 24: Greenback Firmer in Becalmed Markets

2017-08-24

by

2017-08-24

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone in quiet. Sterling is stabilizing after grinding down to its lowest level since late June. The Mexican peso, which had dropped in thin trading in Asia and Europe yesterday following Trump's threat to exit NAFTA and force Congress to fund the Wall or face a government shutdown recovered fully and is now slightly higher on the week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 15: Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

2017-08-15

by

2017-08-15

NY Fed President Dudley appears to have stolen any potential thunder in the July FOMC minutes that will be released tomorrow. While we put more emphasis on today's US retail sales data and the August Fed surveys, many others argued that the minutes were the key report this week.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 11: Geopolitical Tensions Remain Elevated into the Weekend

2017-08-11

by

2017-08-11

There has been no apparent attempt by either North Korea or the United States to ease the rhetorical flourishes that have made global investors nervous. Risk assets were liquidated, and the funding currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were bought back. The yen gained nearly 1.6% this week, ahead of the US session, while the Swiss franc gained 1.3%.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 10: Tensions Remain Elevated, Dollar Firms

2017-08-10

by

2017-08-10

It is difficult to walk back the saber-rattling rhetoric. US Secretary of State Tillerson tried to defuse the situation, which had appeared to ease nerves in North America yesterday. However, references to the modernization of US nuclear forces, a multi-year project begun last year, spurred a fresh threat by North Korea to fire four intermediate range missiles near Guam in week's time.

Read More »

FX Daily, August 09: North Korea lets EUR/CHF Collapse

2017-08-09

by

2017-08-09

The bellicose rhetoric from the US and North Korean officials is the main driver today. We would qualify that assessment by noting that first, the market moves are rather modest, suggesting a low-level anxiety among investors. Second, pre-existing trends have mostly been extended. Turning to Asia first, the Korea's equity market fell 1.1%. The Kospi has fallen for the past two weeks (~2.2%).

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The Dollar may Need more than a Strong Employment Report

2017-07-31

by

2017-07-31

For the US jobs data to rally the dollar, it needs to increase the likelihood of a Fed hike in September, a high bar. The BOE will stand pat, a 6-2 vote would likely be accompanied by a hawkish inflation report. The RBA will also hold rates steady, and of course, it would prefer a weaker currency.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 28: Dollar and Equities Closing Week on Heavy Note

2017-07-28

by

2017-07-28

The US dollar is mostly lower, though one of the features of recent days has been the dramatic slide of the Swiss franc, and that is continuing today. The franc is off another 0.5% today, to bring its weekly loss to a sharp 2.5%. The euro finished last week near CHF1.1030 and is now near CHF1.1370; its highest level since the cap was lifted in mid-January 2015.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 27: Dollar Remains on the Defensive

2017-07-27

by

2017-07-27

The US dollar is narrowly mixed after selling off following the FOMC statement. Sometimes the narrative explains the price action, and sometimes the price action explains the narrative. This seems to be the case of the latter. The dollar and interest rates fell, and so the Fed was dovish.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 26: Quiet Fed Day without Yellen

2017-07-26

by

2017-07-26

By definition, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting is the highlight of the day. Without a press conference, and following last month's rate hike, there is practically no chance of a new policy initiative either on the balance sheet or the Fed funds target.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 14: Aussie Scales New Highs for the Year, as the Greenback Remains on the Defensive

2017-07-14

by

2017-07-14

The Australian dollar has taken over leadership in the dollar bloc from the Canadian dollar. The Aussies are up about 0.35% today to extend this week's gains to more than 2% and reach a new high for the year a little more than $0.7760. The Canadian dollar is up 1.1% this week, in comparison.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 06: Stocks and Bonds Mostly Heavier, while Dollar Hovers Little Changed

2017-07-06

by

2017-07-06

The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies after being confined to tight ranges through the Asian session and European morning. Equities are nursing small losses, and interest rates are pushing higher. The yield on the 10-year German Bund reached 50 bp for the first time since early 2016. Oil prices have steadied after yesterday's slide.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 28: Draghi’s Sparks Mini Taper Tantrum, Euro Chief Beneficiary

2017-06-28

by

2017-06-28

Sounding confident, ECB President Draghi seemed prepared to reduce the asset purchases, and this overshadowed his explicit recognition that substantial accommodation is still necessary. This is very much in line with what many, including ourselves, anticipate: At the September ECB meeting, an extension of the asset purchases into the first part of next year, coupled with a reduction in the amounts being purchased.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Drivers A Couple Things that Aren’t on Your Economic Calendar

2017-06-26

by

2017-06-26

Fed, ECB and BOJ preferred inflation measures will be reported, but are unlikely to change views. Canada's Survey of Senior Loan Officers may be more important than April GDP. US healthcare bill in the Senate and likely action on steel could be the most significant events in the week ahead.

Read More »