Tag Archive: S&P 500 Index

FX Weekly Review, April 24 – 29: Dollar Remains the Fulcrum

2017-05-01

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2017-05-01

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
Often the US dollar, as the numeraire, seems to be the main actor in the foreign exchange market. Other times, the dollar appears to be at the fulcrum between European currencies on one hand, and the dollar-bloc currencies on the other hand. Another way expressing this is whether there is a dollar-move underway or is it really more about the crosses.

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Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak

2017-04-30

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2017-04-30

US S&P Case-Shiller SF Home Price Index, 1980 - 2017
A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

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FX Weekly Review, April 17 – 22: Dollar Technicals Trying to Turn, but…

2017-04-23

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2017-04-23

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 22
While the dollar index had another bad week with a 0.75% less, the Swiss Franc currency index could accumulate the corresponding gains. Main reason is that the EUR/CHF rose over 1.07.

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FX Weekly Review, April 10-14: Swiss Franc loses against the Yen, but wins against Dollar

2017-04-16

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2017-04-16

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Last week the Swiss Franc improved against both euro and dollar, but - compared to its safe-haven counterpart Japanese Yen - it had a bad performance. We expect strong SNB interventions.

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Earnings per Share: Is It Other Than Madness?

2017-04-16

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2017-04-16

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share 2014-2018
As earnings season begins for Q1 2017 reports, there isn’t much change in analysts’ estimates for S&P 500 companies for that quarter. The latest figures from S&P shows expected earnings (as reported) of $26.70 in Q1, as compared to $26.87 two weeks ago. That is down only $1 from October, which is actually pretty steady particularly when compared to Q4 2016 estimates that over the same time plummeted from $29.04 to $24.16. At $26.70, that would...

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FX Weekly Review, April 03-08: Dollar Recovery Can Continue, 10-year Yield Set to Rise

2017-04-10

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2017-04-10

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
The US dollar appreciated against most of the major currencies last week. The Japanese yen was the chief exception. It rose about 0.5% as US yields remained heavy and equities were mostly softer. The Dollar Index did not fall in any session last week. It has had one losing session over the past nine, and that was the last day in March when the Dollar Index slipped less than 0.1%. It finished the week a bit above thee 61.8% retracement objective of...

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Strange Moves in Gold, Federal Reserve Policy and Fundamentals

2017-04-07

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2017-04-07

Something odd happened late in the day in Wednesday’s trading session, which prompted a number of people to mail in comments or ask a question or two. Since we have discussed this issue previously, we decided this was a good opportunity to briefly elaborate on the topic again in these pages.

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FX Weekly Review, March 27 – 31: Euro breaks down against USD and CHF

2017-04-02

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2017-04-02

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, April 01
Weak inflation figures in the euro zone let the common currency fall against both the dollar and the Swiss franc. Still last week, the Swiss Franc index had some losses against the US dollar index.

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FX Weekly Review, March 20 – March 25: Dollar Bottom Near?

2017-03-26

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2017-03-26

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, 1m
In the last week, the Swiss Franc index recovered and gained about 2%. The dollar index lost 1.5%. Position adjustments: The dollar tended to trade heaviest against those currencies that speculators were short, like the euro, yen, and sterling.

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FX Weekly Review, March 13 – March 18: Fed Disappoints, Dollar Losses

2017-03-19

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2017-03-19

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 18
The failure of the Fed to signal an increased pace of normalization and the prospects of other central banks raising rates spurred dollar losses, which deteriorated its technical outlook.

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FX Weekly Review, March 06 – March 11: CHF loses against the euro

2017-03-12

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2017-03-12

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 11
The Swiss Franc lost this week in particular against the euro, given that Mario Draghi was less dovish than expected. If the stronger euro is driven only by speculators, or also by "real money" (investments in cash, bonds, stocks) will be visible in Monday's sight deposits release.

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FX Weekly Review, February 27 – March 04: Dramatic Shift in Fed Expectations Spurs Dollar Gains, but Now What?

2017-03-05

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2017-03-05

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, March 04
The pendulum of market sentiment swung hard and fast toward a Fed rate hike in the middle of March. The signals from Fed officials, including Governor Brainard and Powell, spurred the move. According to Bloomberg, the market had discounted a 90% chance of a hike before Yellen and Fischer spoke. A week ago, Bloomberg calculations showed a 40% chance of a move.

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FX Weekly Review, February 20 – 25: Ranges in FX: Respect the Price Action

2017-02-26

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2017-02-26

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, February 25
It is difficult right now to talk about the foreign exchange market using the dollar as the numeraire. The dollar was stronger against most of the major currencies last week, but not the yen or sterling. The Dollar Index itself was little changed, rising less than 0.15%.

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FX Weekly Review, February 13 – 18: Why still long the dollar?

2017-02-19

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2017-02-19

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
Arguments for being long the dollar: FX investors because of the difference in monetary policy (e.g. higher US rates), Bond investors long US Bonds because higher bond yields, On the other side, European and Swiss equities are not so much overvalued as U.S. stocks are.

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FX Weekly Review, February 06 – 11: Further Dollar and CHF Strength versus Euro weakness ahead?

2017-02-12

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2017-02-12

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
We are expecting a further strengthening of both dollar and Swiss Franc against the euro over the next 3 months. Reason is the rising Swiss demand the continued dovishness of the ECB, despite rising inflation.

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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, Q1 2017 and Some Additional Reflections

2017-02-09

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2017-02-09

Yuan Onshore Weekly
The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Advisory Board was held on January 11, approximately one month ago. A download link to a PDF document containing the full transcript including charts an be found at the end of this post. As always, a broad range of topics was discussed; although some time has passed since the meeting, all these issues remain relevant.

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Gold Prices Rising As “World Has Never Been More Uncertain”

2017-02-08

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2017-02-08

Uncertainty Is At Record Highs 1990 - 2016
Gold prices rising & up 6.6% YTD. Signal “impending market volatility”. World has never been more uncertain (see chart). Fear in Wall Street versus Fear in Washington. Price of ‘plunge protection’ rising even as VIX remains low. Smart money diversifying into gold. Important to watch rising gold and rising bond yields. Gold may prove the “tell”.

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FX Weekly Review, January 30 – February 04: Reversal of Trump Reflation Trade Continues

2017-02-05

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2017-02-05

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc 1M
The Swiss Franc index remained around the 2% gain that for the last month, the recovery from the Trump reflation trade. In this trade, investors preferred U.S. against European stocks. This tendency, however, is reversing now - and with it the franc recovered.

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FX Weekly Review, January 23 – 28: Dollar Downwards and CHF Upwards Correction, for how long?

2017-01-29

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2017-01-29

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, January 21
The US dollar spent the first month of the new year correcting lower after a strong advance in the last several months of 2016. We argue that the correction actually began in mid-December following the Federal Reserve's rate hike.

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FX Weekly Review, January 16 – 21: Dollar Still Appears to Carving out a Bottom

2017-01-22

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2017-01-22

US Dollar/Swiss Franc FX Spot Rate, January 21
The US dollar turned in a mixed performance over the past week. The technical indicators continue to support our expectation that after correcting since mid-December, following the Fed's hike, the dollar is basing.

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