Tag Archive: newslettersent

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Gridlock & The Status Quo

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

The good news is that the economy just printed its second consecutive quarter of 3% growth, a feat not accomplished since Q2 and Q3 2014. The bad news is that the growth spurt in 2014 was better, quantitatively and qualitatively. Those two quarters produced gains of 4.6% and 5.2% (annualized) in GDP, much better than the most recent 3.1% and 3% prints of Q2 and Q3 2017.

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The Savings Rate Conundrum

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Median Disposable Income and Debt Ratio, 1967 - 2015
The economy is booming. Employment is at decade lows. Unemployment claims are at the lowest levels in 40-years. The stock market is at record highs and climbing. Consumers are more confident than they have been in a decade. Wages are finally showing signs of growth.

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Is a Rapid Advance in the Japanese Stock Market Imminent?

2017-11-08

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2017-11-08

Nikkei 225, Jan - Dec 1970 - 2017
The Japanese stock market is quite unique: it would need to rally by approximately 80% to reach its former historical peak. What’s more, said peak was attained on the final trading day of 1989, more than 25 years ago. In short, Japanese stocks have been anything but a good investment in recent years.

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Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1996 - 2017
European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.

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World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10 percent

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

China Gold Mine Production 1H 2016 vs 1H 2017
Gold mining production in China fell by 9.8% in H1 2017. Decreasing mine supply in world’s largest gold producer and across the globe. GFMS World Gold Survey predicts mine production to contract year-on-year. Peak gold production being seen in Australia, world’s no 2 producer. Peak gold production globally while global gold demand remains robust.

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Swiss Industries Announce Series of Offshoring Moves

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

The ABB electronics group announced on Monday the offshoring of up to 150 positions from its Geneva production centre, while Roche is cutting 235 people in canton Aargau. Employees and trade unions reacted angrily.

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Each Bitcoin Transaction Uses As Much Energy As Your House In A Week

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Bitcoin
While Bitcoin bulls will probably never have it so good as they have in 2017, we wonder whether many of them have stopped to think about the environmental downside of this roaring bull market. After all, back in the dot.com boom, people had ideas about potential internet businesses, issued pieces of paper representing ownership and watched their prices go parabolic parabolic.

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The Big Reversal: Inflation and Higher Interest Rates Are Coming Our Way

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

Bank of Japan Balance Sheet, 1998 - 2016
This interaction will spark a runaway feedback loop that will smack asset valuations back to pre-bubble, pre-pyramid scheme levels. According to the conventional economic forecast, interest rates will stay near-zero essentially forever due to slow growth. And since growth is slow, inflation will also remain neutral.

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How to Survive the Winter

2017-11-07

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2017-11-07

The Elbonian investigation
One of the fringe benefits of living in a country that’s in dire need of a political, financial, and cultural reset, is the twisted amusement that comes with bearing witness to its unraveling. Day by day we’re greeted with escalating madness. Indeed, the great fiasco must be taken lightly, so as not to be demoralized by its enormity.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2017: Up +0.7 percent against 2016, +0.1 percent against last month

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, Oct 2017
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in October 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week of Digestion

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Quiet week ahead. RBA and RBNZ policy meetings; no change is expected. US tax reform and the newest Fed governor, Quarles speaks. Q3 data renders September data too old to matter much.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 06/11/2017 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Euro / Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 06
USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD

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Big Swiss names surface in ‘Paradise Papers’

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

Politicians, business directors and companies in Switzerland are among those connected to the so-called Paradise Papers, a massive trove of leaked offshore investment documents. There is currently no evidence of any legal wrongdoing.

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German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

China Total Debt, 2004 - 2017
Today, gold is increasingly viewed by German investors as a regular form of saving: 25% of those surveyed in 2016 said their gold purchase had been part of a regular review of their investments, while 23% said it was part of their retirement planning.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-11-06

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2017-11-06

EM FX ended the week under pressure. News of the Venezuela debt restructuring was digested well, but sentiment went south as the day wore on. Weakness was concentrated in the weakest links TRY, BRL, RUB, and ZAR, while MXN and COP were dragged along for the ride. We see EM selling pressures persisting into 2018.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg TV on Powell–Heir Apparent

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

BBG London
In London on business and had the opportunity to go to Bloomberg. In this clip, Francine Lacqua discuss the likely nomination of Fed Governor Powell to succeed Yellen at the helm of the Federal Reserve. I make three points. First, that, like others, I recognize a strong element of continuity between Bernanke, who was first appointed by a Republican, Yellen, and now, presumably Powell.

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Gold Price Reacts as Central Banks Start Major Change

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Gold Price in GBP
Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time in ten years. President Trump announces Jerome Powell as his choice to lead the U.S. Federal Reserve. Most investors outside the US Dollar and Euro see gold prices climb after busy week of central bank news. Inflation now at five-year high of 3%. Inflation, low-interest rate, debt crises and bail-ins still threaten savers and pensioners.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise.

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What’s Driving Social Discord: Russian Social Media Meddling or Soaring Wealth/Power Inequality?

2017-11-05

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2017-11-05

Boris Natasha
The nation's elites are desperate to misdirect us from the financial and power dividethat has enriched and empowered them at the expense of the unprotected many. There are two competing explanatory narratives battling for mind-share in the U.S.: 1. The nation's social discord is the direct result of Russian social media meddling-- what I call the Boris and Natasha Narrative of evil Russian masterminds controlling a vast conspiracy of social media...

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The Swiss National Bank Now Owns A Record $88 Billion In US Stocks

2017-11-04

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2017-11-04

Value of Swiss National Bank US Stock Holdings, Jun 2014 - Sep 2017
In the third quarter of 2017, one in which the global economy was supposedly undergoing an unprecedented "coordinated growth spurt", and in which central banks were preparing to unveil their QE tapering intentions, in the case of the ECB, or raising rates outright, at the Fed, what was really taking place was another central bank buying spree meant to boost confidence that things are now back to normal, using "money" freshly printed out of thin...

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