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Tag Archive: newslettersent

Financial Repression Is Now “In Play”

2016-10-20

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2016-10-20

A FALLING MARKET CANNOT BE ALLOWED – at any cost! The Central Bankers have clearly painted themselves into a corner as a result of their self-inflicted, extended period of “cheap money”. Their policies have fostered malinvestment, excessive leverage and a speculative casino approach to investments. Investors forced to take on excess risk for yield and scalp speculative investment returns, must operate in an unstable financial environment ripe for...

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FX Daily, October 19: FX After China GDP

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

FX Performance, October 19 2016 Movers and Shakers
The Swiss Franc has strengthened against the pound as global uncertainty persists in the form of the UK’s Brexit vote and the US Presidential Election. Looking ahead it seems the CHF may soften a little as we learn of the new President, I found it very interesting that yesterday Paddy Power paid out on any bets for Hilary Clinton to become President in the United States.

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ECB: Dovish Hold

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Draghi will like emphasis inflation is the key to policy and ECB is committed using allow for its technical tools to achieve its legal mandate. Key decisions will be made in December. The more the euro rises against sterling, the greater the pressure for the euro to fall against the dollar.

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“Subtle forward guidance”: The marriage between best practice central banking and commodity markets

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

In the years following the 2008 crash and today, the use of forward guidance from central banking policy makers has become increasingly important. What this nonsense ultimately has translated into is a ridiculous track record in posting upbeat assessments on the economic environment, aimed at trying to fool the marginal investor into believing “there are no need for worry, central bankers have everything under control”.

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The ECB Made A Mistake During Its Daily Bond Purchases

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

Something unexpected happened when the ECB released its latest bond purchase data at during its scheduled release time on Monday: in addition to the purchase of at least 20 separate corporate bonds under the bank's CSPP bond buying program during the week ended October 14, amounting to a total of €1.84 billion, which lifted the number of securities held by the central bank to 660, bringing the total to amount of its holdings to €33.8 billion, or...

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What Happens When Rampant Asset Inflation Ends?

2016-10-19

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2016-10-19

GDP - Median Household Income
Yesterday I explained why Revealing the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System. If asset inflation ceases, the net result would be the same: systemic collapse. Why is this so? In effect, central banks and states have masked the devastating stagnation of real income by encouraging households to take on debt to augment declining income and by inflating assets via quantitative easing and lowering interest rates and bond yields to near-zero (or...

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FX Daily, October 18: Dollar Slips Broadly but not Deeply

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

FX Performance, October 18 2016 Movers and Shakers
According to Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent the drop in the value of Sterling has helped to stop the UK economy from falling further since the shock of the Brexit vote. He went on to say ‘in the shape of the referendum, we’ve had exactly one of those shocks’ and added that the Bank of England would not interfere with monetary policy to boost the Pound’s value.

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Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

CPI UK CPI US, CPI Eurozone
Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

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Daniel Hannan – The Right Approach To Brexit

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

Daniel Hannan, a British member of the European Parliament (MEP), made an eloquent, impassioned speech this weekend on what should take place in Brexit talks. After listening to Hannan on Brexit, regulation and trade, I am certain he would make a far better US president than anyone in the entire field from 18 months ago.

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Is Oil about to Rollover?

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

Oil has rallied 20% since mid-September. Market may be getting ahead of itself. US rig count has risen by more than 100 in less than 4-months and inventories, seasonally adjusted are at record highs.

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US Stock Market – a Spanking May be on its Way

2016-10-18

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2016-10-18

The stock market has held up quite well this year in the face of numerous developments that are usually regarded as negative (from declining earnings, to the Brexit, to a US presidential election that leaves a lot to be desired, to put it mildly). Of course, the market is never driven by the news – it is exactly the other way around.

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FX Daily Rates, October 17: Dollar Starts Week Narrowly Mixed, while Bonds and Stocks Retreat

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

FX Performance, October 17 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is consolidating in relatively narrow trading ranges. Participants appear to be waiting for fresh incentives, while the recent rise yields continue and equities have begun the new week on a soft note. Yellen spoke before the weekend, and her explicit willingness to tolerate higher inflation pushed yields higher, while not deterring expectations for a hike in December.

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Is the Gold Bull Market Over?

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

ABN Amro, Natixis and Wells Fargo have issued bearish calls on gold. Natixis even expects three Fed rate hikes next year. Pater Tanebrarum discusses these opinions critically.

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A Few Thoughts on Canada

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

Bank of Canada meets Wed. Look for a dovish hold. Foreigners continue to buy Canadian bonds and stocks. The EU-Canadian free-trade deal is facing challenges, with the most pressing one coming from Belgium.

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Sideways Silver Market

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

EM FX gained a little traction on Friday, but capped a week of steady losses. As the US election and FOMC meeting next month get closer, we believe markets and risk appetite will remain volatile. So far, September data from the US does not suggest any urgency to hike in November, and so we continue to believe that December is most likely for another hike.

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FX Weekly Preview: Four Key Events in the Week Ahead

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

Escher Esque
Of the forces driving prices in the week ahead, events appear more important than economic reports.There are four such events that investors must navigate.The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank meet. The UK High Court will deliver its ruling on the role of Parliament in Brexit.The rating agency DBRS updates its credit rating for Portugal.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

Stock Markets Emerging Markets October 12
Fitch upgraded Taiwan by a notch. Thailand has a new king. South Africa’s Finance Minister Gordhan has been summoned to appear in court to face charges. Brazil’s Congress voted to approve a constitutional amendment to freeze government spending in real terms for at least the next 10 years. Brazil’s Petrobras cut fuel prices and introduced a new pricing mechanism.

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NIRP Has Failed: European Savings Rate Hits 5 Year High

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

One year ago, when it was still widely accepted conventional wisdom that NIRP would "work" to draw out money from savers who are loathe to collect nothing (or in some cases negative interest) from keeping their deposits at the bank, and would proceed to spend their savings, either boosting the stock market or the economy, we showed research from Bank of America demonstrating that far from promoting dis-saving, those European nations which had...

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USD ready for a second leg higher – then what?

2016-10-17

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2016-10-17

One year ago we showed the following chart to explain the relative strong dollar that was on everyone’s mind at the time. With a second leg higher in the US dollar imminent, this particular chart will be more important than ever. Claims to dollars, such as demand and time deposits, or even more opaque money-like products created by the shadow banking system is just that, a claim or derivative on the final mean of payment, namely base money.

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