Tag Archive: newslettersent

Good News and Bad News – Precious Metals Supply/Demand Report

2016-11-29

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2016-11-29

tinker-tailor-soldier-spy-nop-briex
Keith Weiner's weekly look on Gold. Gold and silver prices, Gold-Silver Price Ratio, Gold basis and co-basis and the dollar price, Silver basis and co-basis and the dollar price.

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FX Daily, November 29: Dollar Comes Back Mostly Firmer, but Focus is Elsewhere

2016-11-29

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2016-11-29

FX Performance, November 29 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar correctly lowered yesterday, but most of the selling was over by the end of the Asian session, and the greenback steadied in Europe and North America. The dollar is firm against the euro and yen but within yesterday's broad trading ranges. The Australian and Canadian dollar's gains from yesterday are being pared.

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A Note on Gold and India – What is Driving the Gold Price?

2016-11-29

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2016-11-29

It is well-known that India’s government wants to coerce its population into “modernizing” its financial behavior and abandoning its traditions. The recent ban on large-denomination banknotes was not only meant to fight corruption. In fact, as our friend Jayant Bhandari has pointed out, fresh avenues for corruption immediately opened up upon enactment of the ban (see “Gold Price Skyrockets in India After Currency Ban” – Part 1, Part 2 and Part...

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Great Graphic: Yen and Yuan Connection

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September. Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their own. Since September 30, the US 10-year yield has from below 1.60% to above 2.40% at the end of last week. Japan's 10-year yield has risen from minus nine basis points at the end of September to five...

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Weekly Sight Deposits: Investors hedge with Swiss Franc again for the coming inflation cycle.

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Euro/Swiss Franc FX Cross Rate, November 28
We explained the Trump reflation trade, where the Swiss Franc acts as the usual inflation hedge against the obviously inflationary policies of Trumpeconomics. Trump is about tax cuts – i.e. a fiscal deficit up to 10%, and about protectionism. Trump would restrict global trade and push up U.S. wages.

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FX Daily, November 28: Corrective Forces Seen in Asia, Subside in Europe

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

FX Performance, November 28 2016 Movers and Shakers
As soon as markets opened in Asia, the greenback was sold, and corrective forces that had been nipping below the surface took hold. The euro, which had finished last week below $1.0590, rallied nearly a cent. Before the weekend, the greenback had pushed to almost JPY114, an eight-month high, before closed near JPY113.20. It was sold to almost JPY111.35 in early Asia. Sterling extended last week's gains and briefly poked through $1.2530, to reach...

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Swiss banks taking more risks to compensate for record-low interest rates

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Swiss Bank Risk
Swiss banks focused on property lending are taking more risks to compensate for the impact of record-low interest rates, increasing the threat of a real-estate bubble, Swiss National Bank Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg said.

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Q1 – Q3 2016 China Net Gold Import Hits 905 Tonnes

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE Withdrawals September 2016
Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, which can be used as a proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand, reached 1,406 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2016. Supply that went through the central bourse consisted of at least 905 tonnes imported gold, roughly 335 tonnes of domestic mine output, and 166 tonnes in scrap supply and other flows recycled through the exchange.

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FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Portfolio Preferences Continue to Drive Capital Markets

2016-11-28

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2016-11-28

Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-11-27

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2016-11-27

EM ended last week on a somewhat firmer note, though we note divergences remain in place. For the week, ZAR and KRW performed the best while TRY and BRL were the worst. US jobs data Friday will draw some attention, though a December Fed rate hike is pretty much fully priced in.

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FX Weekly Review, November 21 – November 25: Dollar Strength Losing Steam

2016-11-27

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2016-11-27

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc
After a three-week rally, the dollar bulls finally showed signs of tiring ahead of the weekend. At least against the Swiss Franc index, the dollar index could further advance. We had observed SNB interventions in the previous week that kept the euro mostly above 1.07.

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Celebrating this Land of Absurdity

2016-11-27

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2016-11-27

“Myths and legends die hard in America,” remarked Hunter S. Thompson in The Great Shark Hunt, nearly 40-years ago. These great myths and legends of America died long ago. Freedom. Liberty. Independence. Limited representative government. Sound money. Private property rights. All getting more and more replaced by regulation.

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Gold Price Skyrockets in India after Currency Ban – Part III

2016-11-26

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2016-11-26

In part-I of the dispatch we talked about what happened during the first two days after Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi banned Rs 500 and Rs 1000 banknotes, comprising of 88% of the monetary value of cash in circulation. In part-II, we talked about the scenes, chaos, desperation, and massive loss of productive capacity that this ban had led to over the next few days.

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The Problem with Corporate Debt

2016-11-26

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2016-11-26

There are actually two problems with corporate debt. One is that there is too much of it… the other is that a lot of it appears to be going sour. As a brief report at Marketwatch last week (widely ignored as far as we are aware) informs us.

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Why Is the US Dollar Rising?

2016-11-26

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2016-11-26

US Dollar Index - Cash Settle
Note the apparent breakout above 100 and the constructive similarities to the 2014 breakout that was followed by a 20% increase in the purchasing power of the USD relative to other currencies.

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The New Nobility Uses Political Correctness to Fragment the Precariats

2016-11-26

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2016-11-26

Peasants
Combine identity politics with political correctness, and the New Nobility/Oligarchy can laugh their way to the bank while their pawn-serfs fight over how many politically correct angels can dance on the head of a pin.

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How Do We Create Value When Knowledge Is Almost Free?

2016-11-26

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2016-11-26

Credentials are increasingly in over-supply; problem-solving skills are scarce. How do we create value in an economy that is increasingly dependent on knowledge? The answer is complicated by the reality that knowledge is increasingly digital and "unownable" and therefore almost free. Financialization as a substitute for creating value has run its course.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Philippine President Duterte will reportedly ask central bank. Governor Tetangco to stay on for a third term. South Africa’s government has proposed a national minimum wage. Fitch moved the outlook on South Africa’s BBB- from stable to negative. Turkey’s central bank surprised markets with a 50 bp hike in its benchmark repo rate to 8.0%. Political risk in Brazil is rising as President Temer’s top aide was implicated in an influence peddling...

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L’Allemagne est le patron-sponsor de l’Eurosystem.

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Bundesbank Logo
Lors des échanges commerciaux et interbancaires, il y a des banques émettrices de monnaie et vis-à-vis une banque réceptrice. Normalement, à la fin de la journée, tout cela devrait être ramené à l’équilibre. Ceci n’est plus le cas depuis la crise américaine de 2007 (subprimes) comme nous le voyons sur le graphique ci-dessous de quelques pays de la zone euro.

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We Should Take Our Cues From Markets – Not Politicians

2016-11-25

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2016-11-25

Sheastadium Mets Board
I grew up a block away from the 7-train, where I’d take a short ride from the 90th Street station to the Willets Point–Shea Stadium station to watch my favorite team, the New York Mets. Sitting in the stands as a young child, I learned quickly that there were a number of ways to obtain and interpret information. I could watch the umpire and immediately have known whether Al Leiter threw a strike or a ball. Another option was to watch the scoreboard...

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