Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, December 03: G20 Fan Animal Spirits

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

The US and China kept their trade guns cocked at each other but offered the last opportunity for a negotiated settlement before escalation. What is billed as a 90-day freeze on tariff increases is really only 60 days beyond January 1 when Trump had threatened to increase the 10% tariff on $200 bln of Chinese goods to 25%.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2018: +1.2 percent Nominal and +0.8 percent Real

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2018
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.2% in nominal terms in October 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.9% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Climate Change Contributes to Surprise Fall in Swiss GDP

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

Gigerwaldsee dam Switzerland
Third quarter Swiss GDP figures released yesterday show Switzerland’s economy shrank compared to the quarter before. GDP for the quarter to September was down by 0.2% compared to the quarter before, ending an 18-month run of quarterly growth.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dramatic Week Ends with Whimper?

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell's testimony before Congress, OPEC+ meeting, and US employment data.

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Truth Is What We Hide, Self-Serving Cover Stories Are What We Sell

2018-12-03

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2018-12-03

The fact that lies and cover stories are now the official norm only makes us love our servitude with greater devotion. We can summarize the current era in one sentence: truth is what we hide, self-serving cover stories are what we sell. Jean-Claude Juncker's famous quote captures the essence of the era: "When it becomes serious, you have to lie."

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Cool Video: Santa Claus Rally and Trade

2018-12-02

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2018-12-02

Marc Chandler in Fox Business
I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally--a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month's lows last week. I liked that the price action made last Friday's price action into an island bottom, with a gap lower opening followed by Monday's gap higher opening.

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Bearish on Fake Fixes

2018-12-02

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2018-12-02

Household Wealth by percentile
The conventional definition of a Bear is someone who expects stocks to decline. For those of us who are bearish on fake fixes, that definition doesn't apply: we aren't making guesses about future market gyrations (rip-your-face-off rallies, dizziness-inducing drops, boring melt-ups, etc.), we're focused on the impossibility of reforming or fixing a broken economic system.

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Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500

2018-12-01

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2018-12-01

S&P and Weekly Jobless Claims
The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year.  Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year comparison, even a healthy bounce back from the 0.2% drop skewed by the hurricane will be needed just to hold...

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America Needs a New National Strategy

2018-12-01

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2018-12-01

A productive national Strategy would systemically decentralize power and capital rather than concentrate both in the hands of a self-serving elite. If you ask America's well-paid punditry to define America's National Strategy, you'll most likely get the UNESCO version: America's national strategy is to support a Liberal Global Order (LGO) of global cooperation on the environment, trade, etc. and the encouragement of democracy, a liberal order that...

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Further falls for GBP/CHF exchange rate

2018-11-30

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2018-11-30

Brexit UK Piece
Over the last 4 weeks the pound has continued its decline against the Swiss Franc which is no surprise. Global events including Brexit, Italian debt problems and Trade wars are prompting investors to sell off their risky currencies and invest in safe havens such as the Swiss Franc.

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Swiss stock exchange could lose EU access in January

2018-11-30

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2018-11-30

An EU Commission document has revealed that, for now, not enough progress on the Swiss-EU framework agreement has been made to renew the ‘financial equivalency’ status of the Swiss stock exchange in Europe.

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Swiss gender pay gap compared to rest of Europe

2018-11-30

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2018-11-30

A recently published study ranks Switzerland 10th on gender pay gap. Switzerland’s gap of 17% is bigger than Italy’s (5.3%), Luxembourg’s (5.5%), Belgium’s (6.1%), Sweden’s (13.3%), Spain’s (14.2%), Denmark’s (15%), France’s (15.2%) or the Netherlands’ (15.6%), but lower than Finland’s (17.4%), Portugal’s (17.5%), Austria’s (20.1%), the UK’s (21%) or Germany’s (21.5%).

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Monthly Macro Monitor – November 2018

2018-11-30

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2018-11-30

Economic Growth & Investment
Is the Fed’s monetary tightening about over? Maybe, maybe not but there does seem to be some disagreement between Jerome Powell and his Vice Chair, Richard Clarida. Powell said just a little over a month ago that the Fed Funds rate was still “a long way from neutral” and that the Fed may ultimately need to go past neutral.

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Surprise contraction in Swiss Q3 GDP

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Swiss Quarterly GDP growth 2014-2018
Switzerland’s growth unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, pushing down our GDP growth forecast for 2018. Recent softening in the euro area also casts doubts about the pace of monetary tightening by the SNB.The strong growth enjoyed by the Swiss economy since Q1 2017 came suddenly to an end in Q3 18, when real GDP shrank unexpectedly by 0.2% q-o-q (-0.9% q-o-q annualised).

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FX Daily, November 29: Reluctant to Extend Dollar Losses

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose three times more than expected and Putin expressed little support for fresh output cuts.

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Switzerland GDP Q3 2018: -0.2 percent QoQ, +2.4 percent YoY

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q3 2018
Switzerland's GDP fell by 0.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2018 due to both the industrial and service sectors. On the expenditure side, domestic demand and foreign trade had a negative impact. Switzerland’s GDP fell by 0.2% in the 3rd quarter of 2018, after climbing by 0.7% in the previous quarter.

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Wage Losses for Heads of Major Swiss Firms

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

On average, heads of large Swiss corporations have suffered a marked drop in salary. In 2017, the median wage of the heads of 20 leading companies dropped by nearly 30%. According to the executive compensation report published by consulting firm PwCexternal link on Tuesday, the median salary of the heads of 20 firms in the leading SMI index fell from CHF7.7 million ($7.7 million) to CHF5.5 million.

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The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

2018-11-29

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2018-11-29

US Composite PMI and GDP, Jul 2012 - Nov 2018
It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception.

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FX Daily, November 28: Powell Awaited

2018-11-28

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2018-11-28

Overview:  Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama.  The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY.  The G20 meeting begins Friday, and several bilateral meetings are taking the spotlight from the larger gathering. 

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For The First Time In 25 Years, China Has To Make A Choice Between External Stability And Growth

2018-11-28

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2018-11-28

Current account balance and forecasts 2000-2020
Back in August 2 we reported of a historic event for China's economy: for the first time in its modern history, China's current account balance for the first half of the year had turned into a deficit. And while the full year amount was likely set to revert back to a modest surplus, it was only a matter of time before one of the most unique features of China's economy - its chronic current account surplus - was gone for good.

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