Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, October 10: US Dollar Pullback may Continue in North America

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

The euro bottomed yesterday near $1.1430 and reached $1.1515 in Asia. Support is seen near $1.1480 and should hold if the euro's upside correction is to continue. There are options struck $1.1500-$1.1510 for nearly 1.4 bln euros that expire today. For the third consecutive session, the dollar found bids a little below JPY113.00. There is a $1 bln JPY113 option that will be cut today.

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Squaring off over the Italian budget

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

Italy Macro Assumptions
The Italian government’s budget plans set it on a collision course with the European Commission. The road to some kind of agreement is likely to be long and bumpy. The Italian government has confirmed its deficit target at 2.4% of GDP for 2019. This represents significant slippage from a previous budget deficit target of 0.8% in 2019.

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UBS tax fraud trial opens in Paris

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

A sweeping investigation into UBS bank, accused of tax fraud and money laundering, comes to trial in Paris today. The bank risks a fine of up to €5 billion (CHF5.7 billion). The trial is set to begin on Monday after years of investigations into the Swiss bank’s French activities, as well as aborted negotiations in which authorities made a settlement offer of €1.1 billion.

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The Distortions of Doom Part 2: The Fatal Flaws of Reserve Currencies

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

US Dollar's Share of Global Payments, Loans and Reserves
The way forward is to replace the entire system of reserve currencies with a transparent free-for-all of all kinds of currencies. Over the years, I've endeavored to illuminate the arcane dynamics of global currencies by discussing Triffin's Paradox, which explains the conflicting dual roles of national currencies that also act as global reserve currencies, i.e. currencies that other nations use for global payments, loans and foreign exchange...

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In Gold We Trust – Incrementum Chart Book 2018

2018-10-10

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2018-10-10

Central Bank Policies Turn, 2003 - 2019
Our friends from Incrementum (a European asset management company) have just released the annual “In Gold We Trust” chart book, which collects a wealth of statistics and charts relevant to gold, with extensive annotations. Many of these charts cannot be found anywhere else.

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Immobilier suisse, la réalité du cumul de risques. Olivier Crottaz

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

Warning
Avant-propos: Voici un argumentaire très intéressant que nous livre Olivier Crottaz. Les caisses de pension et autres fonds d’investissement venus de l’étranger se sont engouffrées dans l’autoroute de l’industrie immobilière, construite par la BNS. Du sur mesure donc qui pour l’instant n’a pas tant profité aux Suisses.

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German September PMIs surprisingly weak

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

Germany Manufacturing Orders, 2012 - 2018
Recent German soft and hard data in the manufacturing sector has been surprisingly weak. Data released today showed that the final manufacturing PMI fell to 53.7 in September, from 55.9 in August. Factory orders rose by 2.0% month-on-month (m-o-m) in August, having contracted for six out of the seven previous months.

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Swiss-US tax data transfer method ‘violates law’

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

The Swiss Data Protection Commissioner has issued a legal complaint against the Finance Ministry for sending the names of bank employees, lawyers, accountants and other third parties to the United States to assist with tax evasion investigations.

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FX Daily, October 09: A (Short) Reprieve For China while the Dollar Stays Firm

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

The small gains in China's Shanghai Composite and the yuan is helping sentiment today. News that Italy's budget watchdog may reject the government's fiscal plans has helped stabilize Italian assets initially, but renewed pressure quickly materialized. Most Asian equities retreated while Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is struggling to snap a three-day slide. US shares are trading heavily in Europe.

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Cool Video: Clip from CNBC Squawk Box

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

Marc Chandler
The combination of divergence and the US policy mix is underpinning the dollar and I was invited to share my views on CNBC's Squawk Box earlier today. It dovetailed nicely Matthew Diczok (from Merrill Lynch) views on Fed policy and US interest rates.

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How Dangerous is the Month of October?

2018-10-09

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2018-10-09

The largest one-day declines in the DJIA in history
A Month with a Bad Reputation. A certain degree of nervousness tends to suffuse global financial markets when the month of October approaches. The memories of sharp slumps that happened in this month in the past – often wiping out the profits of an entire year in a single day – are apt to induce fear. However, if one disregards outliers such as 1987 or 2008, October generally delivers an acceptable performance.

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The Toxic Stew, Report 7 Oct 2018

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

Swiss 10 year Bond History
Last week, we shined a spotlight on a crack in the monetary system that few people outside of Switzerland (and not many inside either) were aware of. There is permanent gold backwardation measured in Swiss francs. Everyone knows that the Swiss franc has a negative interest rate, but so far as we know, Keith is the only one who predicted this would lead to its collapse (and he was quite early, having written that in January 2015).

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FX Daily, October 08: China and European Woes Weigh on Equities but Buoy the Dollar

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

Overview:  The markets are having a rough adjustment to the return of the Chinese markets are the week-long holiday.  The cut in the required reserves failed to lift investor sentiment.  The Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites fell almost 4%, and the yuan slid nearly 0.8%.  It is an unusually large decline for the closely managed currency.  The offshore yuan fell by a little more than 0.5%. 

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Rückenwind für die SNB

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

Die Nationalbank hat die Schweizer Zahlungsbilanz für das zweite Quartal veröffentlicht. Damit bietet sich erstmals die Gelegenheit, nachzuprüfen, ob die viel zitierten Europaängste Fluchtkapital ins Land gespült haben. Zur Erinnerung: Im März wurde in Italien ein neues Parlament gewählt, die den beiden Europagegnern und Anti-Establishment-Formationen Movimento 5 Stelle und Lega eine Mehrheit bescherten.

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Digitization ‘to cost one million jobs’ in Switzerland

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

The growing trend of digitization in the economy will render a million Swiss jobs redundant in the next 12 years, according to a new study. Some 800,000 jobs will be clawed back by new IT openings, but much of the workforce will need to be re-trained, warns consultancy firm McKinsey. Automation will mainly take the place of manual labour, office and retail workers, says the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper, which has seen an advance copy of the McKinsey...

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FX Weekly Preview: Has an Inflection Point been Reached for Investors?

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

Interest rates, led by the US, have accelerated to the upside. With price pressures generally rising and oil prices at four-year highs, it is understandable. Market participants need to see the breakout that has lifted US 10-year yields to their highest level in seven years is confirmed in subsequent price action.

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The Global Distortions of Doom Part 1: Hyper-Indebted Zombie Corporations

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

The defaults and currency crises in the periphery will then move into the core. It's funny how unintended consequences so rarely turn out to be good. The intended consequences of central banks' unprecedented tsunami of stimulus (quantitative easing, super-low interest rates and easy credit / abundant liquidity) over the past decade were: 1.

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US Stocks and Bonds Get Clocked in Tandem

2018-10-08

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2018-10-08

30 Year Bond and 10 Year Note Yields, Nov 2016 - Oct 2018
At the time of writing, the stock market is recovering from a fairly steep (by recent standards) intraday sell-off. We have no idea where it will close, but we would argue that even a recovery into the close won’t alter the status of today’s action – it is a typical warning shot. Here is what makes the sell-off unique:

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Swiss take the Train more often, and further, than European Neighbours

2018-10-07

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2018-10-07

The latest Europe-wide figures confirm Switzerland’s reputation as a country of trains, with average trips and kilometres covered per habitant far higher than elsewhere. Some 72 trips and 2,463 kilometres: this was the average train time for each Swiss resident in 2016, according to Eurostat figures reported Tuesday by Litraexternal link, the Swiss information service for public transport.

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Switzerland, Model of Freedom & Wealth Moving East – Interviews with Claudio Grass

2018-10-07

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2018-10-07

Last month our friend Claudio Grass, roving Mises Institute Ambassador and a Switzerland-based investment advisor specializing in precious metals, was interviewed by Sarah Westall for her Business Game Changers channel.

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