Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss commission supports new laws to protect whistleblowers

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

A commission of the Council of States, Switzerland’s upper house, is in favour of new rules to protect whistleblowers. The proposed rules, which would help to protect those who expose secretive information or activity that is deemed illegal or unethical, were supported by 6 commission votes to 2 with 4 abstentions.

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FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Overview: An unexpected increase in China's Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of gains in China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan began November with a gain.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in October 2019: -0.3 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, October 2019
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in October 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.8 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, September 2019: +0.6 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, September 2019
Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.6% in nominal terms in September 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.9% in September 2019 compared with the previous year.

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SNB’s Jordan: Without negative rates, CHF would be more attractive and rise in value

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

In his prepared remarks delivered to pension managers on Thursday, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said negative interest rates and readiness to intervene in the forex market was still essential to ease the pressure on the Swiss Franc.

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USD/CHF technical analysis: Greenback nearing the October lows, consolidating near 0.9870 level

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

USD/CHF daily chart
USD/CHF is consolidating its losses this Thursday. The level to beat for bears is the 0.9855 support. On the daily chart, USD/CHF is trading in a range below its main daily simple moving averages (DSMAs). The market is approaching the October low, currently at the 0.9837 price level.

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Three (Rate Cuts) And GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

The Real GDP Problem,1988-2018
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring even more hikes throughout 2019, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them.

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The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts And Their Real Nature/Purpose

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Case Study in Inventory, 2006-2019
What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process.

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Global Economy Faces ‘Scary Situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Dalio Warns

2019-11-01

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2019-11-01

Likely to have a downturn while “there is not effective monetary policy and that is a ‘scary situation’ – Billionaire Investment Manager Ray Dalio

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FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today's session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P 500 rose to new record highs.

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The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 51.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Income statement, 1 January–30 September 2019
The Swiss National Bank reports a profit of CHF 51.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2019. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 42.7 billion. A valuation gain of CHF 7.3 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on Swiss franc positions was CHF 1.7 billion.

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SNB erzielt in den ersten 9 Monaten 2019 Gewinn von über 50 Milliarden Franken

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Insgesamt verdiente die Nationalbank in der Periode von Januar bis September 2019 51,5 Milliarden Franken, wie sie am Donnerstag mitteilte. Nach einem Plus von 38,5 Milliarden in der ersten Jahreshälfte kamen damit im dritten Jahresviertel nochmals 13,0 Milliarden dazu.

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Credit Suisse results impress despite damaging spy scandal

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has reiterated that he had nothing to do with the spying scandal that recently rocked the bank. Thiam insisted that the debacle has not damaged business as the bank presented better than expected third quarter results.

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The Political Parties and the Media Have Abandoned the Working “Middle Class”

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Real Average Household Income, 1965-2015
Where is the line between "working class" and "middle class"? Maybe there isn't any. Defining the "middle class" has devolved to a pundit parlor game, so let's get real for a moment (if we dare): the "middle class" is no longer defined by the traditional metrics of income or job type (blue collar, white collar), but by an entirely different set of metrics:

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FOMC Preview

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Fed Funds Dot Plots, 2019-2022
The FOMC begins a two-day meeting today with the decision due out tomorrow afternoon.  The Fed is widely expected to cut rates 25 bp for the third meeting in a row.  What’s next? US data have undeniably softened in September.  Weakness in the manufacturing sector appears to have spread to the wider economy.  ISM PMI, jobs, CPI, PPI, and retail sales all came in weaker than expected. 

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Incrementum 2019 Gold Chart Book

2019-10-31

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2019-10-31

Gold beer ratio,1950-2015
The Most Comprehensive Collection of Gold Charts. Our friends at Incrementum have just published their newest Gold Chart Book, a complement to the annual “In Gold We Trust” report. A download link to the chart book is provided below. The Incrementum Gold Chart Book is easily the most comprehensive collection of charts related to or relevant to gold available anywhere.

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FX Daily, October 30: All About Perspective

2019-10-30

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2019-10-30

Overview: The global capital markets are mostly treading water ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Asia Pacific and European equities drifted lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index appears to have snapped a four-day advance, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was trading slightly lower for the second consecutive session following a six-day rally.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Stabilization at a low level

2019-10-30

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2019-10-30

KOF Economic Barometer, October 2019
The KOF Economic Barometer has halted its downward movement, at least for the time being. At 94.7 points, however, the barometer is still well below its long-​term average. The Swiss economy is therefore likely to grow with below-​average rates in the upcoming months.

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Why Nobody Chants “End the Fed” Anymore

2019-10-30

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2019-10-30

Americans hated it when the Federal Reserve handed trillions of dollars to crooked Wall Street banks following the 2008 Financial Crisis. Politicians were confronted about the merits of central banking and bailouts. For the first time in history, college students were chanting “End the Fed” at campaign rallies as Ron Paul took the central bank to task during his presidential campaigns.

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The Big Risks Left (and Right) In Europe

2019-10-30

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2019-10-30

Central Bank Failure, 1999-2019
Another local election in Germany, another stunning defeat for the ruling center. How many more of these does anyone need before they realize the electorate is going to keep migrating toward the poles? And it all stems from the one reason; there is no and has been no economic growth. But because the so-called establishment has insisted the economy is booming, or it was, people are doing what people always do.

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