Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, September 23: Dreadful European Flash PMI Drags the Euro Lower

2019-09-23

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2019-09-23

Overview: The critics who claim the ECB's policy response was disproportionate got a rude shock today with the unexpected weakness revealed by the flash PMI. The euro looks to re-visit the lows set recently near $1.0925. Sentiment has also been eroded by the poor South Korean export figures. Asia Pacific equities moved lower, though Tokyo markets were closed. Indian equities, however, continue their pre-weekend surge.

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Automation and the Crisis of Work

2019-09-23

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2019-09-23

Workers share of national income, 1994-2020
Technology, like natural selection, has no goal. When it comes to the impact of automation (robots, AI, etc.) on jobs, there are two schools of thought: one holds that technology has always created more and better jobs than it destroys, and this will continue to be the case.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

We think the Fed has signaled that the bar to another cut is high.  Unless the US data weakens considerably, we see rates on hold for now and this means the liquidity story for EM has worsened.  Elsewhere, US-China trade talks appear to be going nowhere.  With no end in sight to the trade war, we remain negative on EM.

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EUR/CHF risk reversals hit highest since May on call demand

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

EUR/CHF 1MRR, March-September 2019
EUR/CHF risk reversals have jumped to the levels last seen in May. Risk reversals indicate the demand for call options is rising. Risk reversals on EUR/CHF (EURCHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to put, jumped to the highest level since May on Friday, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rally in the common currency.

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MMT, la nouvelle théorie en vogue à Washington

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

Bank Reserves (at Fed) 1995-2019
L’influence du ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ est susceptible d’augmenter dans les milieux économiques et politiques américains.La nouvelle théorie monétaire (Modern Monetary Theory/MMT), théorie macroéconomique défendue par des économistes hétérodoxes, commence à faire son chemin aux Etats-Unis.

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Geneva’s 2020 budget 590 million francs short

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

Next year the canton of Geneva plans to spend CHF 9,143 million. However, forecast revenue is only CHF 8,553 million, leaving a shortfall of CHF 590 million, according to a cantonal government press release. The canton’s finances have been hit hard from both sides.

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A “Hawkish Cut”? Traders’ Sleepless Nights Dominated By Indecision & Confusion

2019-09-22

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2019-09-22

The Fed is said to have orchestrated a “hawkish cut.” Not really.
The avalanche of central bank meetings is rapidly winding down. We’ve had cuts, holds and a raise. The surprises have been minimal. Yet it didn’t prevent the inevitable knee-jerk reactions in the market. In truth, put together as a whole, we are no wiser nor better or worse off. I count that as a success. Especially because there was no projection of panic in any of the decisions.

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AUD/CHF technical analysis: Bears looking for a run to a 50 percent mean reversion

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

AUD/CHF daily chart, Sep 2018-Oct 2019
AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement for a 50% reversion. A subsequent pull-back, however, to the resistance and another sell-off will likely make for a high probability set up. AUD/CHF is in the midst of a sell-off which could extend beyond a 38.2% retracement of the August lows to September highs, located at 0.6715, and target the 50% retracement at 0.6674 (meeting the 2019 lows) should the markets...

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Switzerland’s international investment position: Focus article ‘Breakdown of changes in stocks’ and extension of data offering

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

Switzerland Flag
The Swiss National Bank has today published a focus article on its data portal entitled ‘Switzerland’s international investment position – breakdown of changes in stocks’ (data.snb.ch, Resources, International economic affairs, Focus articles).

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Swiss upper house rejects parental leave plan

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

Switzerland’s government been grappling with the politics of extending universal tax-funded parental leave for a number of years. Some are pushing for paternity leave for fathers and others for a shared pool of parental leave, which mums and dads can apportion.

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Euro/USD: things look pretty stable

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

EUR/USD vs Leading Indicators Spread, 2006-2020
Competing forces mean the two currencies could remain in a holding pattern for a while.The euro has remained relatively stable relative to the US dollar in the wake of the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) September policy meetings. Growth and interest rate differentials, two key drivers for the EUR/USD rate, suggest things could stay this way.

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What’s The Verdict On This Week?

2019-09-21

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2019-09-21

Money Markets Equivalents, 2009-2019
Jay Powell’s disastrous week is coming to a close, not yet his long nightmare. He has been battling fed funds (meaning repo) for his entire tenure dating back to February 2018. This week wasn’t the conclusion to the contest, just the latest and biggest round of it.

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FX Daily, September 20: UK and India Provide Excitement Ahead of the Weekend

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

Overview: A word of optimism on a Brexit deal has sent sterling to its best level in two months. Corporate tax cuts sparked a more than 5% rally in Indian stocks as the week draws to a close. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day losing streak to pare this week's decline.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 was flat for the week coming into today, and its four-week advance is at stake.

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2019: the decline in exports continues

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

Switzerland Trade Balance, August 2019
In August 2019, Swiss exports fell for the second month in a row. Down 4.3% year-on-year, they dropped below 19 billion francs. On the other hand, imports rose by 3.4% and thus regained their level at the beginning of the year. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.2 billion francs.

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Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

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Switzerland faces looming shortage of workers

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

As more baby-boomers – born from 1946 to 1964 – retire, Switzerland will faces a shortage of workers, according to Credit Suisse, a bank. Economists at the bank estimate that 1.1 million people in Switzerland will retire over the next 10 years, a figure which includes nearly 800,000 people currently working.

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The New Orthodoxy: Blasphemy, Heresy and the New Inquisition

2019-09-20

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2019-09-20

A corrupt Orthodoxy devoid of new ideas, an Orthodoxy devoted to maintaining the wealth, status and power of insiders regardless of cost, is a brittle, fragile, unstable system. When the ruling Elites sense their control of the populace is waning, they seek to regain full control via the imposition of a strict Orthodoxy, enforced by an Inquisition. We are living in just such an era.

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FX Daily, September 19: Investors Looking for New Focus

2019-09-19

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2019-09-19

Overview:  Central bank activity is still very much the flavor of the day, but investors are looking for the next focus.  The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank stood pat, while Indonesia cut for the third consecutive time and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Saudi Arabia quickly followed the Fed. Brazil cut its Selic rate yesterday by 50 bp as widely expected.

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Powell plays the ‘insurance’ card again

2019-09-19

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2019-09-19

The Market Continues to Distrust the FED Dot Plot, Which Shows no Additional cut, 2018-2021
In spite of internal divisions, the Fed may go for a third rate cut in October and step in to alleviate pressure in repo market.The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. The new fed funds target range is 1.75%-2.00%. The interest rate on banks’ excess reserves was cut by 0.30% to 1.80%.

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