Tag Archive: newsletter

More What’s Behind Yield Curve: Now Two Straight Negative Quarters For Corporate Profit

2019-06-01

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2019-06-01

Profits Revisions, 2010-2019
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message.

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US Money Supply Growth and the Production Structure – Signs of an Aging Boom

2019-06-01

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2019-06-01

National ISM new orders vs Value of factory orders
Money Supply Growth Continues to Decelerate. Here is a brief update of recent developments in US true money supply growth as well as the trend in the ratio of industrial production of capital goods versus consumer goods (we use the latter as a proxy for the effects of credit expansion on the economy’s production structure).

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FX Daily, May 31: US Struggles to Build Physical Wall, Tries Tariff Wall on Mexico

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

Overview: The US announcement to lay a 5% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico (starting June 10) until it stops the flow of "illegal migrants" spurred sharp losses in the Mexican peso and general risk-off move that strengthened the yen. The tariffs are set to rise every month until reaching 25%. This is a significant surprise and especially given that the Trump Administration is preparing to formally submit the USMCA to Congress.

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Expansion of SNB statistics

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

New Focus Article series published on data portal. The Swiss National Bank is expanding its offering in the field of statist ics. It is to start publishing articles on selected statistical subjects at irregular intervals. These articles will appear on the SNB data portal (data.snb.ch, Resources, International economic affairs, Focus articles) as so-called focus articles.

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Swiss Retail Sales, April 2019: -0.1 percent Nominal and -0.7 percent Real

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, April 2019
31.05.2019 - Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in April 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland ranked world’s fourth most competitive economy

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

Switzerland is Europe’s most competitive nation, coming fourth in the annual global ranking of the Lausanne-based IMD business school. The small Alpine nation climbed from fifth to fourth place in the 63-country competitiveness ranking. It was helped by economic growth, the stability of the Swiss franc and high-quality infrastructure, IMD said on Tuesday.

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Gold Investment In Switzerland Remains Very Popular

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

Switzerland gold demand
Investors in Switzerland like gold and it is the second most popular investment after property or real estate20% plan to invest in gold in the next 12 monthsAlmost two-thirds buy or invest in precious metals at their bank; fewer than one-in-ten buy gold online

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Why Being a Politician Is No Longer Fun

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

Income Inequality and Political Polarization, 1947-2007
As a society, we are ill-prepared for the end of "politics is the solution." It's fun to be a politician when there's plenty of tax revenues and borrowed money to distribute, and when the goodies get bipartisan support. An economy that's expanding all household incomes more or less equally is fun, fun, fun for politicians because more household income generates more income tax revenues and more spending that generates other taxes.

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Canada, Mexico, and the USMCA

2019-05-31

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2019-05-31

The US dollar closed today above CAD1.3500 for the first time since January 2.  Despite the setback, the Canadian dollar is the strongest of the major currencies year-to-date with a little less than a one percent gain.  The yen, in second, has is up about 0.2% (~JPY109.50).  Among emerging market currencies,  the Mexican peso's 2.6% gain puts it in in second place behind the Russian rouble's 7.2% appreciation.

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FX Daily, May 30: Kill Bull: Intermission

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

Overview:  After significant moves in equities and interest rates, investors are taking a collective breath, waiting for fresh developments.  A nervous calm has settled over the capital market.  China, Japan, and Australian equities leaked lower, but other bourses in the region, including Korea and Taiwan posted modest gains, while Indonesian equities are still responding positively to the recent election.

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Avenues worth exploring in strategic asset allocation

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

Equity Weights
The prospect of diminishing returns for classic, and previously highly effective, 60/40 portfolios (60% equities, 40% bonds) is leading to changes in strategic asset allocation. Efforts to improve prospects include identifying macroeconomic regimes to guide investments and refining how diversification is understood.

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Europe Comes Apart, And That’s Before #4

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

EU Pew Survey Overall
In May 2018, the European Parliament found that it was incredibly popular. Commissioning what it calls the Eurobarameter survey, the EU’s governing body said that two-thirds of Europeans inside the bloc believed that membership had benefited their own countries. It was the highest showing since 1983. Voters in May 2019 don’t appear to have agreed with last year’s survey.

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Ranking finds Switzerland lagging on wind power

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

In a comparison of European solar and wind power generation, Switzerland ranks near the bottom. Per year and inhabitant, Switzerland produces 250 kilowatt hours of solar (236kWh) and wind (14kWh) power – the amount needed to power a dishwasher, roughly. This puts Switzerland in 25th place when compared with the 28 European Union nations, according to a study published by the Swiss Energy Foundation (SES) on Wednesday.

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FX Daily, May 29: Equity Slump Deepens while Yields Plunge

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

Overview:  The slump in equities continues after the poor showing in the US yesterday.  Nearly all bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe are lower.  Indonesia is the notable exception as domestic operators re-position after the election.  Foreign investors have been notable sellers of Korean and Taiwanese shares this month (in excess of $6.2 bln). Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is testing its lowest levels since March, and the S&P 500 is poised to gap...

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Swiss Trains Test Free Mobile Internet Access

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

Swiss Trains Mobile Internet Access
The Swiss Federal Railways has started testing free mobile internet based on 3G/4G coverage on the main train routes. However, it does not cover all Swiss operators. The state-owned company has started testing the service on 44 Intercity trains between Zurich and Geneva, St Gallen and Lausanne, and from Basel to Biel, the federal railways announced on Tuesday in a statementexternal link.

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Switzerland GDP Q1 2019: +0.6 percent QoQ, +1.7 percent YoY

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q1 2019
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.6% in the 1st quarter of 2019. Growth was driven primarily by increasing domestic demand. Foreign trade also provided positive impetus. Value added grew in most sectors.

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Lesson of the S-Curve: Doing More of What’s Failed Will Fail Spectacularly

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
I often refer to the S-Curve because Nature so often tracks this curve of ignition, rapid expansion, stagnation and decline. One lesson of the S-Curve is that the human bias to keep doing more of what worked so well in the past leads to doing more of what failed even as results turn negative.

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In Gold We Trust 2019 

2019-05-29

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2019-05-29

Eroding Trust
The New Annual Gold Report from Incrementum is Here. We are happy to report that the new In Gold We Trust Report for 2019 has been released today (the download link can be found at the end of this post). Ronnie Stoeferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum and numerous guest authors once again bring you what has become the reference work for anyone interested in the gold market.

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The Crime of ‘33, Report 27 May

2019-05-28

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2019-05-28

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, we wrote about the impossibility of China nuking the Treasury bond market. Really, this is not about China but mostly about the nature of the dollar and the structure of the monetary system. We showed that there are a whole host of problems with the idea of selling a trillion dollars of Treasurys: Yuan holders are selling yuan to buy dollars, PBOC can’t squander its dollar reserves If it doesn’t buy another currency, it merely tightens...

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FX Daily, May 28: Risk Appetites Curbed, US Leadership Awaited in FX

2019-05-28

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2019-05-28

Overview:  The euro initially reacted positively to the EU Parliament elections.  The populists did not do quite as well as many expected.  The two main groupings failed to secure a majority, but with the help of the Liberals, and possibly the Greens, that did well throughout Europe, a new European Commission will be forged.  The heads of state meet later today, but no real decisions are likely.  The horse trading will likely take most of the next...

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