Tag Archive: newsletter

Money and Prices Are a Dynamic System, Report 1 Dec

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Gold and Silver Prices
The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensional analysis looks at the units on both sides of an equation.

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FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss before the weekend. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also shrugging off the pre-weekend loss and to challenge the multiyear high recorded last week.

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Wird Risiko belohnt?

2019-12-02

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Risikoprämien an den Finanzmärkten. Bildlich dargestellt.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2019: +0.1 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2019
02.12.2019 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data.  While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region.  Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.

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Could America Survive a Truth Commission?

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

A nation that's no longer capable of naming names and reporting what actually happened richly deserves an economic and political collapse to match its moral collapse. You've probably heard of the Truth Commissions held in disastrously corrupt and oppressive regimes after the sociopath/kleptocrat Oligarchs are deposed. 

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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Pro-Russian separatists are financing their war in Ukraine with coal deliveries to the West. Now the role of Swiss companies in Zug and Geneva is being investigated, according to a report in the SonntagsZeitung. Fontus AG describes itself on its website as a “reliable and responsible supplier of high-grade solid fuels”, selling “coal of Russian and Kazakh production”.

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Eastern European Nations Buy and Repatriate Gold Due To Growing Risks To Euro and Dollar

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

◆ Prudent leaders in Eastern European countries are repatriating their national gold reserves and diversifying into gold due to geopolitical risks and monetary risks posed to the dollar, euro and pound◆ Slovakia has joined China, Russia and a host of countries buying gold or seeking to repatriate their gold from the Bank of England and the New York Federal Reserve◆ “Brexit and the risk of a global economic crisis put Slovak gold stored in Britain...

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1 in 10 Swiss hospitals facing financial difficulty

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Around one hospital in ten in Switzerland could end up in financial difficultly, according to a report by PWC. In addition, 37 of the 44 hospitals surveyed will not be profitable enough to remain competitive over the next five to ten years, predict the authors of the report.

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Zurich airport company wins huge Indian deal

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Flughafen Zürich AG, the operator of Zurich airport, has been selected to design, develop and operate a new airport near the Indian capital after outbidding local companies. The companyexternal link said in a statement on Fridayexternal link it would develop and operate the new Noida International Airport at Jewar in Uttar Pradesh state under a 40-year concession.

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A China Trade Deal Just Finalizes the Divorce

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

China Share of World Exports, 2000-2018
Each party will continue to extract whatever benefits they can from the other, but the leaving is already well underway. Beneath the euphoric hoopla of a trade deal with China is the cold reality that the divorce has already happened and any trade deal just signs the decree. The divorce of China and the U.S. was mutual; each had used up whatever benefits the tense marriage had offered, and each is looking forward to no longer being dependent on the...

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Politicians Want Thanksgiving To Be Political. Ignore Them.

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Often, government-created holidays begin with a good premise — i.e., Independence Day, Armistice Day — and get worse from there. On Independence Day, instead of celebrating armed rebellion and secession, we now sing the praises of the government. Similarly, Armistice Day — a day designed to commemorate the end of a war — became Veterans Day, a day designed to honor government employees.

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Swiss Financial Accounts, 2018 edition

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

Capital losses and transactions influence household financial wealth
The financial assets of households were influenced by two factors in 2018: First, falling share prices led to high capital losses and, second, households grew their financial wealth through transactions. They increased their insurance and pension scheme entitlements, expanded their bank deposits and invested in securities. Overall, household financial assets fell slightly by CHF 14 billion to CHF 2,586 billion (down 0.6%) – the first decline in ten...

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Skilled worker shortage worsens in Switzerland

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

The shortage of skilled workers on the Swiss job market has become even more acute this year, according to a survey. Finding suitable engineers, technical workers and fiduciaries is particularly difficult. The skilled worker shortage index(PDF), compiled annually by Adecco Switzerland in collaboration with the University of Zurich, measures the occupations in which the number of vacancies is particularly large compared with the number of job-seekers.

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Number of jobs reaches all-time high in Switzerland

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

Unemployment rose in the third quarter of 2019, however, there have never been more jobs in Switzerland. The total number of jobs in Switzerland rose to 5.137 million at 30 September 2019, a level never seen before. The figure was 1.3% higher than at 30 September 2018 and 0.3% higher than 30 June 2019.

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Nothing Good From A Chinese Industrial Recession

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

China Industry, 2001-2019
October 2017 continues to show up as the most crucial month across a wide range of global economic data. In the mainstream telling, it should have been a very good thing, a hugely positive inflection. That was the time of true inflation hysteria around the globe, though it was always presented as a rationally-determined base case rather than the unsupported madness it really was.

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Swiss crypto sector welcomes proposed blockchain law

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

Proposed updates to the banking, corporate and financial infrastructure laws to accommodate Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) have been broadly welcomed by Switzerland’s growing blockchain industry. Parliament is now set to debate the wide-ranging set of proposals presented by the governmentexternal link on Wednesday.

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FX Daily, November 29: Equities Slip While Investors Mark Time

2019-11-29

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2019-11-29

Overview: Global equities are trading heavily. Both the MSCI Asia Pacific and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 snapped four-day advancing streaks yesterday and have seen some follow-through selling today. In the Asia Pacific region, all the markets fell but Jakarta. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped a little more than 0.2% yesterday but dropped 2% earlier today to record its biggest decline in three weeks.

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Euro Area 2020 Macro Outlook

2019-11-29

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2019-11-29

After an estimated 1.2% in 2019, we expect GDP growth of 1.0% in the euro area in 2020. Country wise, we expect more manufacturing-intense countries to underperform more domestically driven ones. Thus, we project weak growth of 0.7% in Germany and 0.4% in Italy in 2020, while we expect France and Spain to remain relatively resilient, growing by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively.

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Federal Council paves way for VAT refund on Billag fee

2019-11-29

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2019-11-29

At its meeting on 27 November 2019, the Federal Council set out its plan for the refund of value-added tax (VAT) on Switzerland’s radio and television licence, formerly known as Billag. Between 2010 and 2015, VAT was charged on Swiss television and radio licences.

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