Tag Archive: newsletter

Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2018
05.03.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in February 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Mit Negativzinsen die Wirtschaft ankurbeln? Nächste Irrlehre der SNB

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Seit Jahrzehnten geistert die Illusion in den Köpfen der Oekonomen herum, man könne mit Zinssenkungen eine Wirtschaft ankurbeln. Den Vogel schiesst der vermeintliche „Starökonom“ von der Harvard University, Kenneth Rogoff, ab. Er prophezeit, dass künftige Wirtschaftskrisen mit Negativzinsen von bis zu minus 6 Prozent bekämpft würden.

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The Fed’s “Wealth Effect” Has Enriched the Haves at the Expense of the Young

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Households and Nonprofit Organizations 1960-2018
The Fed is the mortal enemy of the young generations, and thus of the nation itself. The wealth effect" generated by rising stock and housing prices has long been a core goal of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. As Lance Roberts noted in his recent commentary So, The Fed Doesn't Target The Market, Eh?

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Is Capital Creation Beating Capital Consumption? Report 3 Mar

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

Gross Output vs GDP 2005-2018
We have written numerous articles about capital consumption. Our monetary system has a falling interest rate, which causes both capital churn and conversion of one party’s wealth into another’s income. It also has too-low interest, which encourages borrowing to consume (which, as everyone knows, adds to Gross Domestic Product—GDP).

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FX Weekly Preview: Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence to ideas that the world's largest economy is on the precipice of a recession.

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Brexit looms over Geneva motor show

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

The Geneva International Motor Show opens this week amid growing concerns about the impact of Brexit on car manufacturers in the UK and across Europe. Experts expect that a no-deal Brexit could lead to sudden tariffs that could disrupt the auto industry supply chain. With three weeks left until UK’s planned exit from the EU, some car manufacturers see the annual Geneva motor show as an opportunity to warn against a no-deal separation while...

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What Killed the Middle Class?

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

Wages aren't keeping up
Rounding up the usual suspects won't restore a vibrant middle class. What killed the middle class? The answer may well echo an Agatha Christie mystery: rather than there being one guilty party, it may be that each of the suspects participated in the demise of the middle class.

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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2019: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.4 percent Real

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, January 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in January 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.4% in January 2019 compared with the previous year.

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Meanwhile, Over In Asia

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Japan Industrial Production, SA 2008-2019
While Western markets breathed a sigh of relief that US GDP didn’t confirm the global slowdown, not yet, what was taking place over in Asia went in the other direction. There has been a sense, a wish perhaps, that if the global economy truly did hit a rough spot it would be limited to just the last three months of 2018. Hopefully Mario Draghi is on to something.

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GBP to CHF rate hovers over 1.32 awaiting new Brexit Developments

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Swiss Franc CHF Exchange Rates Graph
The pound has rallied higher against the Swiss Franc with rates for the GBP/CHF pair now sitting over 1.32. Pound to Swiss Franc exchange rates have been lifted on the back of some optimism over Brexit, that a deal will be reached between Britain and the EU. The markets are awaiting developments over the contentious Irish backstop which could pave the way forward for a deal.

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FX Daily, March 01: Could the Worst be Behind China and Germany? Or Hope Springs Eternal

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Overview:  News that MSCI plans to substantially boost China's equity weighting in its indices and a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and some easing of India-Pakistan tensions helped bolster the risk-taking appetite going into the weekend.  This lifting equity and weighing on bonds.  China's CSI 300 rose 2.2% for a 6.5% weekly gain. 

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Switzerland GDP Q4 2018: +0.2 percent QoQ, +1.4 percent YoY

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q4 2018
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Manufacturing saw dynamic growth. Concurrently, exports of goods increased significantly. In contrast, domestic demand stagnated. GDP growth was 2.5% for 2018 as a whole.

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Federal Court rejects complaint against Volkswagen importer

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Switzerland’s highest court has dismissed a legal complaint by a consumer group against Amag, an importer of German Volkswagen diesel cars into Switzerland, linked to the emissions-rigging scandal. The Federal Court rejected an appeal by the SKS consumer group, stating that it had no case against VW and Amag; SKS claimed that they had misled car buyers and violated Swiss law.

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The Doomsday Scenario for the Stock and Housing Bubbles

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

SPX, weekly 1994 - 2019
It was always folly to believe that inflating asset bubbles could solve the structural problems of a post-industrial economy. The Doomsday Scenario for the stock and housing bubbles is simple: the Fed's magic fails. When dropping interest rates to zero and flooding the financial sector with loose money fail to ignite the economy and reflate the deflating bubbles, punters will realize the Fed's magic only worked the first three times: three bubbles...

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The Gold Debate – Where Do Things Stand in the Gold Market?

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

A Recurring Pattern. When the gold price recently spiked up to approach the resistance area even Aunt Hilda, Freddy the town drunk, and his blind dog know about by now, a recurring pattern played out. The move toward resistance fanned excitement among gold bugs (which was conspicuously lacking previously).

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FX Daily, February 28: Trump Walks Away from North Korea. Should Beijing Worry?

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overview:  News that the US-North Korean summit ended abruptly without an agreement spurred losses in equities and gains in the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. US President Trump willingness to walk away from the talks is important in and of itself, but it also sends a warning not to go all in on a US-China trade agreement that could also sour at the last minute.

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Good Year for Swiss Economy in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

After some years of steady but low growth, the Swiss economy expanded by 2.5% in 2018 on the back of a positive global situation. The figures, released on Thursday by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO), showed growth last year that was a hair below expected (+2.6%) but which still marked a jump from 2017 figures (+1.6%).

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The Swiss hotel sector saw a new record number of overnight stays in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overnight stays 2018
The hotel sector in Switzerland registered 38.8 million overnight stays in 2018, i.e. the best result to date. This represented a growth of 3.8% (+1.4 million) compared with 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.4 million units, an increase of 4.5% (+921 000) and its best performance in 10 years. Swiss overnight stays increased by 2.9% (+493 000), thus reaching the record value of 17.4 million overnight stays.

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No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Labor Utilization Total Hours Worked 2008-2018
What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot down its throat.

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U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

US Mint Silver Eagle Sales, Feb 2018 - Feb 2019
U.S. Mint suspends silver bullion coin sales after sales double in February. Silver investment demand for American Eagles (one ounce) silver bullion coins depletes West Point Mint inventories. U.S. Mint suspended sales of American Eagle (1 oz) coins on Feb. 21 because it had no coins left to sell.

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