Tag Archive: newsletter

What’s Up With Australia’s 80 Tonnes Of Gold At The Bank Of England?

2019-02-22

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2019-02-22

Recently, news network RT.com asked for comments on the question of the 80 tonnes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) gold reserves and their supposed storage location at the Bank of England's gold vaults in London. Based on some of those comments I made, RT has now published an article in its English language news website at www.rt.com about this Australian gold that the RBA claims is held in London.

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Declining trend of cross-border workers continues

2019-02-22

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2019-02-22

The number of cross-border workers in Switzerland – except those from France – has dropped for the second consecutive quarter. This marks the second year-on-year decline by quarter in 20 years. According to numbers released by the Federal Statistical Office on Thursday, the fourth quarter of 2018 saw 2,000 fewer people commuting to Switzerland to work compared to the same period the year before.

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FOMC Minutes: The New Narrative Takes Shape

2019-02-22

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2019-02-22

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
Nothing the Fed did today, or has done up to today, has changed the curves. Eurodollar futures and UST’s, they are both still inverted. The former sharply inverted. The only thing that has changed since early January is the narrative – and not in a charitable way. It is treated as a positive when it is a pretty visible signal about deteriorating circumstances.

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Something Different About This One

2019-02-22

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2019-02-22

China Retail Sales, Automobiles 2001-2018
In Japan, they call it “powerful monetary easing.” In practice, it is anything but. QQE with all its added letters is so authoritative that it is knocked sideways by the smallest of economic and financial breezes. If it truly worked the way it was supposed to, the Bank of Japan or any central bank would only need it for the shortest of timeframes.

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FX Daily, February 21: Aussie Slammed by Dalian Coal Embargo, While Firmer Flash PMI does Euro Little Good

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

Overview: The US dollar is firm against most major and emerging market currencies. There is more optimism on US-Chinese trade as a series of understandings are drafted, and an extension past March 1 of the tariff freeze is reportedly in the works.

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Cool Video: Fox Business–Stocks and the US Consumer

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

Marc Chandler Fox Business TV
I joined Varney and Company on Fox Business TV earlier today. Varney had liked by bullish call on stocks from the end of last year, but seemed dismayed that I have turned cautious. I suggested that the S&P are approaching a key area a little above 2800 that has capped in Q4 18.

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UBS to appeal record €3.7 billion French tax fraud fine

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

A French court on Wednesday found Swiss bank UBS guilty of illicit solicitation and laundering of the proceeds of tax fraud, imposing a hefty fine of €3.7 billion (CHF4.2 billion). The bank was convicted of illegally helping wealthy French clients evade tax authorities in France. UBS, its French subsidiary and three of its former executives have also been ordered to pay civil damages of €800,000.

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Getting Back Up To Speed On Loss Of Speed in US Economy

2019-02-21

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2019-02-21

U.S Industrial Production Real Personal Income Vehicle Sales, Jan 2010
For much of 2018, the idea of “overseas turmoil” lived up to its name. At least in economic terms. Market-wise, there was a lot domestically to draw anyone’s honest attention. Warnings were everywhere by the end of the year. And that was what has been at issue. Some said Europe and China are on their own, the US is cocooned in a tax cut-fueled boom. Decoupling, only now the other way around.

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UBS Shares Tumble As French Judge Slaps Bank With $5.1 Billion Tax Evasion Fine

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

In a landmark ruling that sent a clear message to other banks battling misconduct investigations in French courts, a Paris court on Wednesday found UBS guilty of having actively helped some of its wealthy French clients hide money from French tax authorities in undeclared Swiss bank accounts, and ordered the bank to pay a $5.1 billion fine.

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FX Daily, February 20: US-China Trade and Brexit Dominate Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies, but the strongest currency today is the Chinese yuan, following reports that US wants China to keep the yuan stable and not offset US tariffs with currency depreciation.  The second monthly decline in Japanese exports weighted on the yen.  In the UK, another Labour MP left, while there is speculation that a few Conservatives may defect today. 

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Strong Trade Balance Data Supports the Franc

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Gold Swiss Franc Coins
The Swiss Franc has been boosted during early morning trading as investors find the latest Trade Balance data supportive of the economy, with the Trade Balance data coming in showing a surplus of CHF3bn. The strength of the Swiss economy is its exports; in watches, chocolate and specialized industrial engineering.

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Credit Exhaustion Is Global

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

China and US Assets
Europe is awash in credit exhaustion, and so is China. The signs are everywhere: credit exhaustion is global, and that means the global growth story is over: revenues and profits are all sliding as lending dries up and defaults pile up.

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Gold to consolidate before further leg up

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Gold Demand Breakdown 2000-2019
Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better.Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4).

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Central Planning Is More than Just Friction, Report 17 February

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Yield Curve
It is easy to think of government interference into the economy like a kind of friction. If producers and traders were fully free, then they could improve our quality of life—with new technologies, better products, and lower prices—at a rate of X. But the more that the government does, the more it burdens them. So instead of X rate of progress, we get the same end result but 10% slower or 20% slower.

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing down the threat. 

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Swiss Trade Balance January 2019: Start of a Positive year

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, January 2019
Swiss foreign trade started the year 2019 in a positive way. Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.1% to 18.9 billion francs and imports by 3.4% to 17.5 billion. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.

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La Dépossession façon BNS. Entretien ORBIS TERRAE

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

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L’ouvrage de Vincent Held aborde une série de sujets brûlants : la politique d’affaiblissement du francs suisse menée par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), l’imbrication de cette politique avec celles des banques privées suisses, la politique d’acquisition d’obligations d’Etat en dollars et en euros au détriment de la constitution d’un véritable fonds souverain… Le livre de M. Held touche au cœur nucléaire de la prospérité helvétique. Et ce qu’il...

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The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Raghuram Rajan announced as next speaker

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has named Raghuram Rajan as this year’s speaker for its Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series. Professor Rajan has made outstanding contributions to both economic practice and economic research on the global stage. His roles have included Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 until 2016 and Chief Economist at the IMF between 2003 and 2006.

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Ministers make the case for tax and pension reform package

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

The Swiss government has launched its campaign in favour of the upcoming national vote on a reform of the corporate tax and pension systems. Ministers for health and finance, Alain Berset and Ueli Maurer, presented their case at a press conference on Monday, urging citizens to vote ‘yes’ on May 19.

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China’s Big Money Gamble

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

World Bank Pink Sheet Commodity Indices 1995-2019
While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018.

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