Tag Archive: newsletter

European Central Bank likely to stick to script

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Falling ECB Market Rate Hike expectations 2018-2019
The ECB is comfortable with current market expectations for rate hikes.At its latest meeting in December, the ECB turned more cautious, lowering its growth forecasts but showing no sign of panic regarding the loss in euro area economic momentum. Risks were considered as “broadly balanced”, but moving to the downside.

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Swiss firms in record number of mergers and acquisitions

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

The number of merger and acquisition deals involving Swiss companies hit a record high in 2018, according to a report by consultancy firm KPMG. Activity peaked in a number of sectors including financial services, consumer markets, technology, media and telecommunications, power and utilities, says KPMG. There were also a record number of private equity transactions.

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Two Ways the System Is Rigged: HFT and Oligarchic Inheritance

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Soaring Income Inequality
We often hear how the system (i.e. our economy) is rigged to benefit the few at the expense of the many, but exactly how is it rigged? Longtime correspondent Zeus Y. recently highlighted two specific mechanisms that favor the top 0.01%: high frequency trading (HFT) and oligarchic inheritance, the generational transfer of immense wealth and the power it buys.

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L’enfer fiscal peut être suisse… Si si!

2019-01-20

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2019-01-20

Le scandale de la valeur locative, un revenu fictif taxé. Je profite du billet de G Monti pour introduire un thème qui, à lui seul résume ce que peut être l’injustice fiscale. Il s’agit de ce qui est appelée en Suisse la valeur locative de son logement. Il ne faut pas le confondre avec un impôt foncier, ni avec un loyer.

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Hall of Mirrors, Where’d The Labor Shortage Go?

2019-01-20

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2019-01-20

Federal Reserve Beige Book 2010-2019
Today was supposed to see the release of the Census Bureau’s retail trade report, a key data set pertaining to the (alarming) state of American consumers, therefore workers by extension (income). With the federal government in partial shutdown, those numbers will be delayed until further notice. In their place we will have to manage with something like the Federal Reserves’ Beige Book.

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Workers paid in euros may not claim for currency losses

2019-01-19

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2019-01-19

The Swiss Federal Court has ruled that two Swiss companies do not have to compensate two employees who were paid in euros and who ended up with less than their franc-earning colleagues. Explaining its decision on Tuesday, the country’s highest court said the cross-border workers from Germany and France had agreed to a corresponding change to their contracts in 2011 – knowing what it meant for their salaries – and therefore any subsequent demands...

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That’s A Big Minus

2019-01-19

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2019-01-19

Europe Industrial Production 2013-2018
Goods require money to finance both their production as well as their movements. They need oil and energy for the same reasons. If oil and money markets were drastically awful for a few months before December, and then purely chaotic during December, Mario Draghi of all people should’ve been paying attention.

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Political Turmoil in UK & US Sees Gold Hit 2 Week High

2019-01-19

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2019-01-19

For first time in over 16 years, palladium futures settle at a premium to gold futures. Gold futures on Wednesday resumed their climb toward the psychologically important price of $1,300 an ounce, settling at their highest in nearly two weeks on the back of political turmoil in the U.K. and U.S.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in December 2018: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.6 percent MoM

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, December 2018
18.01.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in December 2018 by 0.6% compared with the previous month, reaching 102.5 points (December 2015 = 100). Compared with December 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.6%. The average annualised inflation rate in 2018 was 2.4%.

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FX Daily, January 18: Markets Finishing Week on Positive Note

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Sentiment has improved since the volatility last month spooked investors and, perhaps, some policymakers. Global equities are rallying. The Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei are at their best levels in almost a month, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at its best level since early December, gapping above a downtrend in place since late last September.

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Swiss and Italian leaders discuss cross-border tax deal

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

By spring, the Italian government is expected to clarify its position on a new tax system for cross-border commuters between Italy and Switzerland. “It is a delicate issue that must be digested sufficiently, with both administrative and political evaluations. It takes time, but spring is not far away,” Italian Foreign Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero Milanesi told Swiss Foreign Affairs Minister Ignazio Cassis in Lugano in southern Switzerland on...

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Spreading Sour Not Soar

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Sweden / Japan
We are starting to get a better sense of what happened to turn everything so drastically in December. Not that we hadn’t suspected while it was all taking place, but more and more in January the economic data for the last couple months of 2018 backs up the market action. These were no speculators looking to break Jay Powell, probing for weakness in Mario Draghi’s resolve.

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The Strongest Season for Silver Has Only Just Begun

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Silver price in terms of the USD
Commodities as an Alternative. Our readers are presumably following commodity prices. Commodities often provide an alternative to investing in stocks – and they have clearly discernible seasonal characteristics. Thus heating oil tends to be cheaper in the summer than during the heating season in winter, and wheat is typically more expensive before the harvest then thereafter.

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FX Daily, January 17: Risk Assets Underperform as Investors Await Fresh Developments

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

The capital markets remain relatively subdued as fresh trading incentives are awaited, including US corporate earnings. Some of the enthusiasm for risk-assets has diminished. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has stalled after trading at six-week highs yesterday, though most bourses in Asia were higher, but the Nikkei (Topix gained), China, and Singapore.

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Outlook for euro periphery bonds

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

Italian Sovereign Spread and Italian Banks CDS 2011-2019
Economic fundamentals should come back into focus, but politics still a factor.After a year when peripheral countries’ old demons made a reappearance, with, in particular, Italy’s public debt back in the spotlight, the focus should shift to economic fundamentals in 2019. Both the Spanish and Italian economies are set to slow down, although the situation is more serious in Italy.

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Gold Holds Steady Near $1,300/oz As Geopolitical Risks Including Brexit Loom Large

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

Gold in GBP
Gold Holds Steady Over £1,000 – Increased Likelihood Of A Disorderly Brexit. – Gold supported near $1,300/oz ahead of important British Brexit no-confidence vote. – Gold is consolidating in range between $1,280 and $1,300/oz (over £1,000/oz and €1,100/oz) – A break of resistance at $1,300 will likely see gold rise rapidly in all currencies.

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As Germany and France Come Apart, So Too Will the EU

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

German Unification 1865-1871
If we follow the logic and evidence presented in these seven points, we are forced to conclude that the fractures in France, Germany and the EU are widening by the day. When is a nation-state no longer a functional state? It's an interesting question to ask of the European nation-states trapped in the devolving European Union.

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Financial watchdog pushes for upgrade of cyber defence

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

The chief executive of the Swiss financial watchdog, Mark Branson, has called for the creation of a national cyber defence centre. In an interview with the SonntagsZeitung newspaper, Branson reiterated that Switzerland was lagging on safety standards behind other financial centres.

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The Death of a Business Cycle

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

How do business cycles end? In the US, conventional wisdom is that they are murdered by the Federal Reserve. It is too slow to raise rates and then goes too quickly. This view is espoused by numerous well-respected economists and policymakers. President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve is anchored by such views.

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets are Eerily Calm

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Overview: There is an eerie calm over in the capital market through the European morning today despite some ostensibly worrisome developments.  While many, like ourselves, expect UK Prime Minister May to survive a vote of confidence, it hardly clarifies the outlook. 

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